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Working Paper

Rules and risk in the euro area

In this working paper, with a unique data set summarising the quality of rules-based fiscal governance in European Union member states, the authors show that stronger fiscal rules in euro-area members reduce sovereign risk premia, in particular in times of market stress.

By: and Date: October 3, 2011 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Anna Iara and Guntram Wolff develop a model of sovereign spreads that are determined by the probability of default in interaction with the level of risk aversion. Estimation of the model confirms the central predictions. The legal basis for the rules, and mechanisms for enforcing them, are the most important dimensions of rulesbased fiscal governance.


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Opinion

France’s institutional system favours rebellion against its leader

The 'yellow vest' movement proves that France's political and budgetary centralism, as the source of citizens' feelings of abandonment and revolt, must be reformed.

By: André Sapir Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 19, 2019
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Working Paper

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The author proposes a tilting approach to steer the allocation of the Eurosystem’s assets and collateral towards low-carbon sectors, which would reduce the cost of capital for these sectors relative to high-carbon sectors. Central banks have already started to look at climate-related risks in the context of financial stability. Should they also take the carbon intensity of assets into account in the context of monetary policy?

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Reforming decision-making for EU taxation policy

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Speakers: Johannes Becker, Pierre Moscovici, Paola Profeta and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
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Opinion

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There is a fear that EU companies will find it increasingly difficult to be on top of global value chains. Many argue that EU-based firms simply lack the critical scale to compete and, in order to address this problem, that Europe’s merger control should become less strict. But the real question is where the EU can strengthen itself beyond the realm of competition policy.

By: Georgios Petropoulos and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Date: February 15, 2019
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Blog Post

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An old debate is back with a kick. The discussion around modern monetary theory first gained traction in the economic blogosphere around 2012. Recent interventions in the US and UK political arenas rekindled the interest in the heterodox theory that is now seeping into mainstream debates.

By: Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 11, 2019
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Francesco Papadia and Inês Gonçalves Raposo have recently written on Italian fiscal policy and the increase in the spread between Italian (BTP) and German (Bund) government. Since then, two developments have taken place: one good, and one bad. This blog post reviews them.

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Opinion

The EU needs a Brexit endgame

Britain and the EU must try to preserve the longstanding economic, political, and security links and, despite the last 31 months spent arguing over Brexit, they should try to follow a new path toward convergence.

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By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 29, 2019
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