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Policy Contribution

The Euro crisis and the new impossible trinity

The search for solutions to the euro crisis is based on a partial diagnosis that overemphasises the lack of enforcement of existing fiscal rules. Europe’s leaders should rather address the euro area’s inherent weaknesses revealed by the crisis.

By: Date: January 15, 2012 European Macroeconomics & Governance Tags & Topics

The search for solutions to the euro crisis is based on a partial diagnosis that overemphasises the lack of enforcement of existing fiscal rules. Europe’s leaders should rather address the euro area’s inherent weaknesses revealed by the crisis.

At the core of euro-area vulnerability is an impossible trinity of strict no-monetary financing, bank-sovereign interdependence and no co-responsibility for public debt. This Policy Contribution assesses the corresponding three options for reform: a broader European Central Bank (ECB) mandate, the building of a banking federation, and fiscal union with common bonds. None will be easy.

The least feasible option is a change to the ECB’s mandate; changing market perceptions would require the ECB to credibly commit overwhelming forces, and the ECB is simply not in a position to make such a commitment.
The building of a banking federation, meanwhile, involves reforms that are bound to be difficult. Incremental progress is likely, but a breakthrough less so.

This leaves fiscal union. It faces major obstacles, but a decision to move in this direction would signal to the markets and ECB a commitment to stronger Economic and Monetary Union. One possibility would be to introduce a limited, experimental scheme through which trust could be rebuilt.

This Policy Contribution draws on presentations made at the XXIV Moneda y Crédito Symposium, Madrid, 3 November 2011, at the Asia-Europe Economic Forum conference in Seoul, 9 December, and at De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam on 17 December. I am very grateful to Silvia Merler for excellent research assistance.

I thank participants in these seminars and Bruegel colleagues for comments and criticisms.

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Policy Contribution

PC 12 2017COVER2

The global decline in the labour income share: is capital the answer to Germany’s current account surplus?

Analysing the major divergences between the three largest euro-area countries in terms of unit labour costs and current accounts, to the broader debate on labour income shares. Data suggests that capital and labour have been complements.

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Speakers: Guntram B. Wolff and Tony Barber Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
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Working Paper

Cover WP 2017_06

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By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: April 20, 2017
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Speakers: Grégory Claeys, Thomas Guénolé-Ryzhakov, Bruno Jeanbart and Guillaume Tusseau Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: April 19, 2017
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Geo-blocking is a discriminatory practice that is wide-spread in EU. It prevents online customers from accessing and purchasing products or services from a website based in another member state

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On 1-2 June Bruegel together with Danmarks Nationalbank and the Copenhagen Business School will organise a conference about fiscal frameworks in Europe. The conference will re-evaluate fiscal frameworks in Europe in light of experience gathered since the formation of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The implications for the design of fiscal policy stemming from […]

Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Danmarks Nationalbank
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On 6 April Bruegel, as in previous years, hosted the presentation of the Euro Yearbook, a collection of experts’ insights on the construction of the European Monetary Union through 2016.

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Blog Post

B Coeuré - photo

Central bank communication in a low interest rate environment

Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event organised by Bruegel, Brussels, 31 March 2017

By: Benoît Coeuré Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 31, 2017
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Central bank communication in a low interest rate environment

At this event, we are pleased to welcome Mr. Benoît Coeuré, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank at Bruegel.

Speakers: Benoît Coeuré and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: March 31, 2017
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