Blog Post

Eurozone countries must not be forced to meet deficit targets

Last year thirteen eurozone countries surpassed the deficit to gross domestic product ratio of three per cent. The latest forecasts by the European Commission suggest the region is slipping into a mild recession this year. As a consequence, in the absence of further policy measures, most of these countries risk missing their budgetary targets. This […]

By: and Date: February 27, 2012 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Last year thirteen eurozone countries surpassed the deficit to gross domestic product ratio of three per cent. The latest forecasts by the European Commission suggest the region is slipping into a mild recession this year. As a consequence, in the absence of further policy measures, most of these countries risk missing their budgetary targets. This especially applies to Spain, where last year’s deficit was eight per cent of GDP. The Commission expects its output to decline by one per cent this year (not a particularly pessimistic forecast) yet the country is still supposed to reach the three per cent deficit threshold by next year. Many other countries are in the same boat.

The dilemma for the EU – especially for the Commission whose surveillance role is being enhanced – is how to respond to this situation. Should Olli Rehn, the Commission’s vice president, push countries to take further immediate actions? Or should he recognise that these targets are out of reach and put emphasis on efforts rather than outcomes? From a structural point of view, the preferred option is clearly the latter. However, the European fiscal framework has lost a lot of credibility. He may wish to use the opportunity to demonstrate his ability to enforce discipline.

Economic history teaches us that financial crises have long lasting, if not permanent, negative effects . Most European countries have already lost several percentage points of GDP and it seems wise to expect the second recession to do the same. Mr Rehn has good reasons to require action. However, demanding adherence to the 2013 targets has two major drawbacks.

First, immediate austerity measures would aggravate the recession. Recent research suggests that the short-run negative effects of austerity measures tend to be higher than we previously thought. Though most European governments have structural problems with their budgets, that does not call for impairing automatic stabilisers in a recession year.

A second drawback of imposing immediate action is the form that this would almost certainly take. Closing a gap on short notice is not compatible with smart consolidation. The most effective way to achieve a dramatic result by next year would be to just raise existing taxes – with all the adverse consequences on potential output and no effects on the effectiveness of public spending.

A better path to sustainable public finances is to launch credible reforms today that ensure rebalancing of the government budget tomorrow. A typical example is the raising of the retirement age or reform of social benefits. However, it is hard for financial markets to monitor the implementation of such measures. The Commission is right to ask for them and it should have an important role in the surveillance of policy actions and the evaluation of their effects.

Mr Rehn’s involvement in the budgetary policies of individual member states is motivated by their effects on other members. Attention has recently been focused on the negative effects of excess borrowing. However, in this era of major private deleveraging, the positives should also be considered.

This asks for minimum additional austerity over and above what is already planned in countries under direct financial stress and for no additional austerity at all in countries that do not face an immediate threat of losing access to the financial markets. Provided credible structural measures are implemented, this stance would be consistent with the EU treaty and budgetary sustainability. And it would certainly be better for the economy of the eurozone.

A version of this article was also published in the FT A-List


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.


Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /home/bruegelo/public_html/wp-content/themes/bruegel/content.php on line 449
View comments
Read article More on this topic

Opinion

Can virtual currencies challenge the dominant position of sovereign currencies?

Marek Dabrowski and Lukasz Janikowski analyse why private money has historically failed in competition against sovereign currencies and what it means for modern virtual currencies, such as Bitcoin.

By: Marek Dabrowski and Łukasz Janikowski Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 15, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Opinion

How a second referendum could be the best way to overcome Brexit impasse

A new vote based on the revocation (or not) of Article 50 would give the UK government a clear signal to proceed in one direction or another, and thus trim down the number of options being touted – most of which are unworkable as things stand.

By: Maria Demertzis and Nicola Viegi Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 14, 2018
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Investment and intangible capital

This event will feature a presentation of the EIB's 2018 Investment Report

Speakers: Román Arjona, Maria Demertzis, Debora Revoltella and Mario Nava Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: December 14, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Does the Eurogroup's reform of the ESM toolkit represent real progress?

The deal reached on euro-zone reform at the December 4th Eurogroup is not ground-breaking. However, it contains a number of incremental but potentially key technical reforms – in particular regarding the ESM toolkit. Some constitute an improvement, but there are also clear flaws that should be corrected at the Euro Summit.

By: Grégory Claeys and Antoine Mathieu Collin Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 13, 2018
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Policy Contribution

Forecast errors and monetary policy normalisation in the euro area

What did we learn from the recent monetary policy normalisation experiences of Sweden, the United States and the United Kingdom? Zsolt Darvas consider the lessons and analyse the European Central Bank’s forecasting track record and possible factors that might explain the forecast errors.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 13, 2018
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Essay / Lecture

A new statistical system for the European Union

Quality statistics are essential to economic policy. In this essay, Andreas Georgiou demonstrates the existence of fundamental risks inherent in the European Statistical System. He argues that a paradigm shift is necessary and sets out a model that would deliver the quality statistics the European Union needs.

By: Andreas Georgiou Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 12, 2018
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

Les gilets jaunes

For weeks, protesters wearing yellow motorist vests have taken to the streets of Paris to protest against the rising price of fuel. They have since taken on a wider role, and are seen as symbols of the growing popular discontent with President Macron. Silvia Merler reviews scholars’ opinions about this movement.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 10, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Providing funding in resolution: Unfinished business even after Eurogroup agreement on EMU reform

The recent Eurogroup agreement on euro-area reform foresees a greater role for the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) as a backstop to the banking union. This is a welcome step forward but important issues remain. We assess the agreement on how to fund banks after resolution and the best way to organise the fiscal role in liquidity provisioning to banks. We argue that the bank resolution framework will remain incomplete and its gaps could result in important financial instabilities.

By: Maria Demertzis and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 7, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

ECB’s huge forecasting errors undermine credibility of current forecasts

In the past five years ECB forecasts have proven to be systematically incorrect: core inflation remained broadly stable at 1% despite the stubbornly predicted increase, while the unemployment rate fell faster than predicted. Such forecast errors, which are also inconsistent with each other, raise serious doubts about the reliability of the ECB’s current forecast of accelerating core inflation and necessitates a reflection on the inflation aim of the ECB.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 6, 2018
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

The future of the External Investment Plan in the next MFF

What are the challenges for implementation of the new EIP?

Speakers: Zsolt Darvas, Mikaela Gavas and Hannah Timmis Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: December 5, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Macroéconomie et gilets jaunes

Les analyses de la fronde des gilets jaunes ont surtout mis l’accent sur la répartition des revenus et des prélèvements entre catégories sociales et selon le lieu d’habitation. Lecture évidemment pertinente. Mais elle ne doit pas en occulter une autre, qui porte sur les évolutions d’ensemble des dix dernières années et sur ce qu’on peut anticiper pour les dix prochaines.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 4, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

The international role of the euro

The authors assess whether the euro area should pursue a greater international role for the euro, as outlined by European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, and how it might go about doing so.

By: Konstantinos Efstathiou and Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 3, 2018
Load more posts