Download publication

Policy Contribution

Who’s afraid of sovereign bonds?

The December large-scale provision of liquidity to banks by the ECB contributed to reducing spreads on Southern European sovereign bonds, but did it contribute to increasing the exposure of domestic banks to their own sovereign? Data do not yet allow determining whether and to what extent banks used ECB liquidity to purchase governments bonds. But this new paper by Silvia Merler and Jean Pisani-Ferry shows that already in autumn 2011 non-residents had decreased their exposure to Southern European sovereign bonds while that of domestic banks had increased. The opposite had happened in Germany.   

By: and Date: February 6, 2012 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

The crisis has underlined the strong interdependence between the euro-area banking and sovereign crises. To understand the role domestic banks have played in holding sovereign debt, a breakdown of government debt by holding sectors is required.

The data shows that at the start of the crisis, most continental euro-area countries were characterised by the large size of their banks’ portfolios of domestic government bonds, which were markedly larger than in the UK or the US. Consequently, concern about sovereign solvency was bound to have major consequences for banks.

The structural vulnerability of euro-area countries has increased, reinforcing the sovereign/ banking crisis vicious cycle. All countries for which concerns about state solvency arose in recent years have seen a reversal in the previously steady increase of the share of government debt held by non residents. Germany, by contrast, has seen an increase in the share held by non residents.

In the short term, these observations raise a question about the effectiveness of ECB provision of liquidity to banks as a means to alleviate the sovereign crisis. At a point when government bonds are considered risky assets, euro-area banks are faced with both balance sheet and reputational risks compared to their non-euro area counterparts, and may prove reluctant to increase this exposure further.

In the longer term, the question is if and how euro-area regulators should set incentives to reduce banks’ heavy exposure to sovereigns. This issue should be given more attention in European policy discussions on how to strengthen the euro area.


Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /home/bruegelo/public_html/wp-content/themes/bruegel/content.php on line 449
View comments
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Policy Contribution

Spotting excessive regional house price growth and what to do about it

Rapidly rising house prices are a well-known source of financial instability. This Policy Contribution examines whether there are regional differences in house price growth within European countries and, if so, whether this warrants more targeted measures to address vulnerabilities.

By: Grégory Claeys, Konstantinos Efstathiou and Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 18, 2017
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Oct
26
14:30

Growth, productivity and social progress in Europe

On 26 October, Bruegel is organizing an interactive brainstorming seminar on Growth, Productivity and Social Progress in Europe. This is a closed-door, high-level workshop for a selected number of experts in the field.

Speakers: Allan Larsson and André Sapir Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article

Blog Post

An update: sovereign bond holdings in the euro area – the impact of quantitative easing

Since the European Central Bank’s announcement in January 2015 of its quantitative easing programme, national central banks have been buying government and national agency bonds. In this post we look at the effect of QE on sectoral holdings of government bonds, updating calculations that we published initially in May 2016.

By: Pia Hüttl and David Pichler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 10, 2017
Read article

Blog Post

India’s trade ties with the UK and EU

As EU and Indian leaders meet in Delhi, we look at the figures on trade. The UK’s place in the relationship warrants special attention. EU-India trade has more than tripled since 2000, but UK-India trade is largely static. The shift is especially noticeable for EU exports to India, where the UK share has dropped from 29% to 10%.

By: Maria Demertzis and Alexander Roth Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: October 6, 2017
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Catalonia and the Spanish banking system

As tensions rise around Catalonia's independence movement, there are worries about the impact on the Spanish banking sector. Banks based in Catalonia account for around 14% of total assets. Some major institutions are already moving their headquarters to other parts of Spain. However, most Spanish banks have significant exposure to the Catalan market, and all could be caught up in the turmoil.

By: Yana Myachenkova Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 6, 2017
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

What has driven the votes for Germany’s right-wing Alternative für Deutschland?

The AfD vote in East Germany was consistently stronger than in the West, even after controlling for income, age, education, religion and the overall rural nature of the new Bundesländer.

By: Alexander Roth and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 5, 2017
Read about event

Upcoming Event

Nov
28
12:30

Sustainable growth in transition countries

This event will feature a presentation of the EBRD Transition Report 2017-18.

Speakers: Jonathan Charles, Zsolt Darvas, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Sergei Guriev and Debora Revoltella Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article Download PDF

External Publication

European Parliament

The single monetary policy and its decentralised implementation: An assessment

This paper assesses the decentralised implementation of monetary policy by the Eurosystem in terms of its transparency, efficiency and simplicity. Compared to the Fed, the Eurosystem seems to have higher staff numbers and operational costs for similar tasks.

By: Francesco Papadia and Alexander Roth Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: October 4, 2017
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Ukraine’s oligarchs are bad for democracy and economic reform

Ukraine’s late and incomplete economic reform created a class of super-wealthy oligarchs who now stand in the way of further liberalisation. The oligarchs’ oversized influence only deepens public distrust in a structurally weak political system. Nevertheless, Ukraine is making some attempts to uproot corruption and the next steps are clear.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 3, 2017
Read article Download PDF More by this author

External Publication

An innovation deficit behind Europe’s overall productivity slowdown?

Reinhilde Veugelers' chapter in "Investment and Growth in Advanced Economies", conference volume of the European Central Bank’s Forum on central banking in Sintra.

By: Reinhilde Veugelers Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Date: October 2, 2017
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Nov
30
10:30

Responsibility to reform Europe

At this event, we will host Vice President of the European Commission Jyrki Katainen and the President of Nea Demokratia and Opposition Leader in Greece, Kyriakos Mitsotakis who will have an interactive discussion on how to reinvent the EU and the eurozone.

Speakers: Maria Demertzis, Jyrki Katainen and Kuriakos Mitsotakis Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More by this author

Opinion

A Jamaican Germany is good for Europe

After a surprising election result, Europe is closely watching German coalition negotiations. A so-called Jamaica coalition of conservatives, liberals and greens is the most likely outcome, but many fear this will be bad for the EU and the Eurozone. Not so, argues Guntram Wolff. In fact, a shift to Jamaica could be good news for Europe.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 29, 2017
Load more posts