Blog Post

Views on Grexit: a summary of German media

According to the Spiegel on 22 July  the IMF signalled to EU leaders that it would not participate in further support for Greece. Countries like the Netherlands and Finland have made the involvement of the IMF a prerequisite for their aid. This review looks at recent voices in Germany on the so-called Grexit, which appears […]

By: Date: July 24, 2012 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

According to the Spiegel on 22 July  the IMF signalled to EU leaders that it would not participate in further support for Greece. Countries like the Netherlands and Finland have made the involvement of the IMF a prerequisite for their aid. This review looks at recent voices in Germany on the so-called Grexit, which appears to become less of a taboo than before.

The Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ) reports on 23 July that the Federal government rejects additional financial aid for Greece. According to government sources it is “inconceivable that Angela Merkel asks once again for permission to the German Bundestag for a third aid package for Greece” as Merkel already struggled to unify her coalition in recent parliamentary decisions on the euro debt crisis. However, Der Spiegel reports that the Federal government says that it has no information about the IMF refuting aid to Greece and that it will hold any decision until the publication of the Troika report on the implementation of reforms in Greece due in autumn 2012. Bavarian Prime Minister Horst Seehofer (CSU) also rejects a new rescue package for Greece. According to him, Europe has already gone “to the limit of all justifiable.” 

The German Minister of the Economy Philip Rösler gave on 22 July an interview to the ARD , where he states that he hardly sees any chances for a success of the Greek Reform Programme – and in consequence for the Greek membership in the euro zone. A Grexit “has lost its scare factor”. He is “more than sceptical” regarding the implementation of the requirements of the Troika as prerequisite for further financial aid. “If Greece does not fulfil its obligations, there will be no more payments” said the Minister. In this case, the country would be insolvent, what would trigger probably a discussion in Greece itself.  In Rösler’s words: “The Greek will then finally come to the conclusion that it would be maybe cleverer to exit the euro zone”. Rösler was heavily critizised in his own party for these statements. According to the Spiegel many FDP members even call his behaviour “unprofessional” and try to play down Rösler’s statements, such as Michael Link (Minister of state in the Foreign Office for European Affairs) who says that an exit out of the euro zone cannot be forced. However, the Secretary General of the FDP says that an exit of Greece from the euro zone “could create confidence in the markets.” And, according to the Spiegel on 23 July , FDP chef Rainer Brüderle wants to advance the publication of the Troika report.

According to Die Welt, Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble argues implicitly against giving Greece more time to implement the agreed reforms (Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras had asked to shift the commitments by two years). “If there is a delay regarding reforms, Greece will have to make them up”, Schäuble told to the BILD Newspaper. However, he declines to make any prediction on a possible Grexit.

SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel warns about the consequences of a Grexit. Germany would have to face after a Grexit and calls for a little more time for Greece for the implementation of reforms. Green Party leader Jürgen Trittin calls to wait until the assessment of the Troika. Regarding the statements of CDU and FDP, he calls them “hysterical”. The former Minister of Finance Peer Steinbrück, SPD member, states in an interview to the Bild am Sonntag that “in some cases, he had growing doubts that all countries could be held in the euro zone”.

Claus Hulverscheidt writes on 22 July 2012 in the SZ that, in order to “pull the plug” in Greece, it would be either necessary for the Greek to save more, or for the Europeans to give more money. Both are impossible and therefore only bankruptcy and Grexit remain as options. However, this is risky, notably for Greece. Moreover, from a legal point a view, there is no possibility to “throw the Greek out of the euro zone”. Only the ECB would have the indirect means to stop the payments and by doing this to force Samaras to exit. This would involve tremendous risks for the Greek government, even bigger ones compared to those for the remaining euro zone countries. However, he thinks that this step is necessary and underlines that the Greek themselves should be blamed for the situation. It would be very ironic if the former “Blockadepolitiker” (blockade politician) Samaras may be the one filing a petition for bankruptcy.

Hugo Müller-Vogg appreciates in a comment in the BILD on 23 July (“Acropolis Adieu”) the recent statements of the IMF (see above). This signal was overdue and underlines that Greece is neither able nor willing to solve its problems: the political caste does not dare to ask the rich to pay, the bureaucracy is unable to privatise unprofitable state enterprises, and the tax administration is inefficient and corrupt. “The IMF statements, finally, make is easier for the donor countries to say: Acropolis adieu, you have to go!”

Gérard Bökenkamp on FreieWelt.net supports Rösler’s statements and says that he has the “logic on his side” as the German Chancellor and the Minister of Finance – officially – still exclude a bankruptcy of Greece. Excluding a bankruptcy of Greece would mean that there is no way to enforce obligations against Greece.

In the Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung Gerd Höhler writes about the reaction of the Greek in the face of the threat of a national bankruptcy. The actual cause of the misery in Greece is its political system itself, made of corruption and favors. Unless the Greek politicians do not dare to break these structures, the country won’t be able to cope with its problems. However, even in the face of the threat of a national bankruptcy, there is no sign of a reform jerk…

Thomas Kröter writes in the Kölner Stadtanzeiger on 22 July that Angela Merkel wanted to involve the IMF on the “Acropolis Action” in order to involve an institution that is less exposed to political pressure. The IMF was thought to be the “technical backbone” for the Troika that checks the status of Greek reforms. And it is not by hazard that the Federal Ministry of Finance already had prepared plans for a euro zone without Greece. Remains the question: who will be the winner of a Grexit given that Spain may be the next Greece?

Udo Harms (Neue Presse Hannover) comments Rösler’s statements. Given Rösler’s unfavourable situation in the Federal government, bad popularity ratings, mobbing within the FDP, no practical results, his recent statements are at best clumsy, at worst a calculus in order to improve his tattered image in the German public opinion. Harms thinks that after a Grexit, the risk of contagion to Spain and Italy is very present. In this case, the euro could be basically forgotten and also the exporting nation Germany will be weakened…

Egbert Nießler of the Berliner Morgenpost (subscribed version) thinks that a Grexit is not only about Greece, but could also be harmful for the German export oriented economy….


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.


Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /home/bruegelo/public_html/wp-content/themes/bruegel/content.php on line 449
View comments
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Oct
23
12:30

Europe: Back to the future of a political project

This event will feature a discussion on different ideas for reforming European Governance.

Speakers: Ulrike Guerot, Adriaan Schout and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

The international use of the euro: What can we learn from past examples of currency internationalisation?

The recent State of the Union speech by Jean-Claude Juncker sparked a discussion about the potential wider use of the euro on the international stage. Historically, it is not the first debate of this kind. Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol analyses four previous cases of debates on international currencies to reveal the different scenarios associated with their greater use, as well as the need to have a clear objective for a currency’s internationalisation.

By: Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 15, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director’s Cut: How does Italy’s budget fit with EU fiscal rules?

In this Director’s Cut of ‘The Sound of Economics’, Guntram Wolff welcomes Bruegel research fellow Grégory Claeys to assess how the new Italian budget proposals measure up against the existing EU fiscal rules.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 9, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Greece: What to expect after the bail-out

After being under the close scrutiny of three financial assistance programmes since May 2010, Greece has finally left the bail-out in August 2018. How different is the post-bail-out era from the preceding eight years? Will Greece be able to stand on its own? And how might the country improve its economic outlook? In this post, which summarises a presentation recently given at an Athens conference, the author answers these three questions.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 9, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Improving the efficiency and legitimacy of the EU: A bottom-up approach

The 2019 European elections promise to be a watershed moment for the EU. A recent Bruegel paper made the case for restructuring the Union’s model of governance and integration. The authors of this post critically assess this proposed institutional engineering, and argue for the principle of “an ever closer union” to be safeguarded by a bottom-up approach to respond to the common needs of the citizens.

By: Silvia Merler, Simone Tagliapietra and Alessio Terzi Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 9, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Italy’s new fiscal plans: the options of the European Commission

The Italian government has announced an increase of its deficit for 2019, breaking the commitment from the previous government to decrease it to 0.8% next year. This blog post explores the options for the European Commission and the procedures prescribed by the European fiscal framework in this case.

By: Grégory Claeys and Antoine Mathieu Collin Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 8, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

One club does not fit all in Europe

In this column, Jean Pisani-Ferry argues how the EU can become a more effective global player, following the Policy Brief "One size does not fit all: European integration by differentiation.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 2, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director’s Cut: Is economics asking the right questions?

Bruegel deputy director Maria Demertzis welcomes Financial Times commentator Martin Sandbu to explore the journey taken by the field of economics since the financial crisis struck 10 years ago, and discuss what new tools economics has now that it didn’t have then.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 2, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Digesting the Salzburg Summit

As the moment of truth for Brexit negotiations is approaching, with the October European Council around the corner, we review opinions on the outcome and meaning of the Salzburg summit.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 1, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director’s Cut: The Italian government budget proposal for 2019

Guntram Wolff welcomes Bruegel affiliate fellow Silvia Merler to evaluate the Italian government’s planned budget for 2019, in this Director’s Cut of ‘The Sound of Economics’

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 28, 2018
Read article Download PDF

Policy Contribution

European Parliament

Excess liquidity and bank lending risks in the euro area

In this Policy Contribution prepared for the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) as an input to the Monetary Dialogue, the authors clarify what excess liquidity is and argue that it is not a good indicator of whether banks’ have more incentives in risk-taking and look at indicators that might signal that bank lending in the euro area creates undue risks.

By: Zsolt Darvas and David Pichler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: September 26, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Something Putin and Juncker appear to agree on – the euro

“It is absurd that Europe pays for 80% of its energy import bill – worth €300 billion a year – in US dollars when only roughly 2% of our energy imports come from the United States,” said President Juncker in his state of the union speech.* Europe’s largest supplier of energy – Russia, who accounts for a third of that bill – couldn’t agree more. Russia’s offer to switch to euros in trade with the EU will likely be costly to implement, but the US switch towards unilateralism is forcing its long-standing partners to question the dollar’s global dominance.

By: Elina Ribakova Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 25, 2018
Load more posts