Download publication

Policy Contribution

Options for a Euro-area fiscal capacity

This Policy Contribution is based on a briefing paper for the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee’s Monetary Dialogue: Europe has responded to the crisis with strengthened budgetary and macroeconomic surveillance, the creation of the European Stability Mechanism, liquidity provisioning by resilient economies and the European Central Bank and a process towards a banking union. However, a monetary union requires some form of budget for fiscal stabilisation in case of shocks, and as a backstop to the banking union.

By: , and Date: January 10, 2013 European Macroeconomics & GovernanceEuropean Parliament Tags & Topics

Europe has responded to the crisis with strengthened budgetary and macroeconomic surveillance, the creation of the European Stability Mechanism, liquidity provisioning by resilient economies and the European Central Bank and a process towards a banking union. However, a monetary union requires some form of budget for fiscal stabilisation in case of shocks, and as a backstop to the banking union.

This paper compares four quantitatively different schemes of fiscal stabilisation and proposes a new scheme based on GDP-indexed bonds. The options considered are: (i) A federal budget with unemployment and corporate taxes shifted to euro-area level; (ii) a support scheme based on deviations from potential output;(iii) an insurance scheme via which governments would issue bonds indexed to GDP, and (iv) a scheme in which access to jointly guaranteed borrowing is combined with gradual withdrawal of fiscal sovereignty.

Our comparison is based on strong assumptions. We carry out a preliminary, limited simulation of how the debt-to-GDP ratio would have developed between 2008-14 under the four schemes for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and an ‘average’ country.The schemes have varying implications in each case for debt sustainability.

View comments
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Policy Contribution

PC 07 2017 cover

What happened to global banking after the crisis?

The global financial crisis allegedly led to the end of global banking. However, Dirk Schoenmaker finds that reports of the demise of global banking are premature.

By: Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: March 14, 2017
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Zsolt Darvas
DSC_0798
dsc_1000

The Brexit bill: uncertainties in the estimate of EU pension and sickness insurance liabilities

Pension and sickness insurance liabilities for EU staff could be an especially contentious part of negotiations on an EU-UK financial settlement: the “Brexit bill”. This post looks behind the calculation of the alleged cost of pension benefits and concludes that it may be less than half of what it seems.

By: Zsolt Darvas, Konstantinos Efstathiou and Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 17, 2017
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Zsolt Darvas
DSC_0798
dsc_1000

The UK’s Brexit bill: could EU assets partially offset liabilities?

The ‘Brexit bill’ is likely to be one of the most contentious aspects of the upcoming negotiations. But estimates so far focus largely on the EU costs and liabilities that the UK will have to buy its way out of. What about the EU’s assets? The UK will surely get a share of those, and they could total €153.7bn.

By: Zsolt Darvas, Konstantinos Efstathiou and Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 14, 2017
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Policy Brief

PB 17 01

Making the best of Brexit for the EU27 financial system

The EU27 needs to upgrade its financial surveillance architecture to minimise the financial market fragmentation resulting from Brexit and the corresponding increase in borrowing costs for firms.

By: André Sapir, Dirk Schoenmaker and Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: February 8, 2017
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Marek Dabrowski

Challenges to debt sustainability in advanced economies

The gross general government debt-to-GDP ratios in many advanced economies have reached the highest levels in peacetime history and continue to grow, putting into question sovereign solvency in these economies.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 8, 2016
Read article Download PDF

Working Paper

cover

Reform of the European Union financial supervisory and regulatory architecture and its implications for Asia

This Working Paper reviews recent developments in the EU’s financial supervisory and regulatory architecture with a view to draw out lessons for regional financial regulatory architecture in Asia.

By: Zsolt Darvas, Dirk Schoenmaker and Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: November 17, 2016
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

DSC_0794

Trump, NATO and European defence spending

US President-Elect Donald Trump made critical statements about low European defence spending during the election campaign - signaling an expectation that Europe should contribute more to the cost of its security. Indeed, most European NATO members have spending well below the 2% target that NATO membership entails. Reaching this target could cost the EU27 NATO members 96 billion USD per year.

By: Justine Feliu Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: November 15, 2016
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Policy Contribution

pc_21_16_page_01

Are advanced economies at risk of falling into debt traps?

One of the consequences of the global financial crisis has been rapid growth in public debt in most advanced economies. This Policy Contribution assesses the size of public debt in advanced economies and considers the potential consequences of sovereign insolvency.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 10, 2016
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Blueprint

cover4

An anatomy of inclusive growth in Europe

This Blueprint offers an in-depth analysis of inequalities of income and wealth in the EU, as well as their causes and consequences. How evenly are the benefits of growth distributed in our economies, and what does this mean for fairness and social mobility? How could and should policymakers react?

By: Zsolt Darvas and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 27, 2016
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Silvia Merler

Should we rethink fiscal policy?

What’s at stake: there has been quite some discussion recently on whether we should rethink the framework of fiscal policy in order to make it more appropriate and effective in a world where demand seems to be chronically anemic, inflation is low and the interest rates are likely to stay close to zero (if not negative) for a long time. According to some of the authors, in the Eurozone these concerns are particularly pressing.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 24, 2016
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Nicolas Véron

Breaking the vicious circle

Nicolas Véron argues that EU banking union can only be complete if the vast amounts of domestic sovereign debt held by many banks are reduced

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: October 21, 2016
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Policy Contribution

cover

What are the prerequisites for a euro-area fiscal capacity?

In this Policy Contribution, Maria Demertzsis and Guntram B. Wolff discuss three progressive steps for strengthening the fiscal framework at the euro-area level. These lead to less interference in national fiscal policymaking thanks to a more credible no-bailout clause, increased risk sharing and different degrees of provision of euro-area-wide public goods and fiscal stabilisation.

By: Maria Demertzis and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 9, 2016
Load more posts