The full consequences of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union were never going to be immediately perceptible. As we approach the second anniversary of the UK’s Brexit referendum, we can compare the subsequent economic data for the UK and the euro area and see how it diverges from the trends established before the vote.
The debate about rethinking economics keeps rambling. We summarise newest contributions to this important discussion.
While Italy remains without a new government, it would be foolish to believe that a country where anti-system parties won 55% of the popular vote will continue to behave as if nothing had happened. But political upheavals sometime provide a unique opportunity for addressing seemingly intractable problems. After its political upheaval, Italy now needs an economic one.
With growth gathering momentum in the eurozone, some have claimed this is the proof that structural reforms implemented during the crisis are working, re-opening the long-standing debate on the extent to which reforms contribute to fostering long-term growth. This column employs a novel empirical approach – a modified version of the Synthetic Control Method – to estimate the impact of large reform waves implemented in the past 40 years worldwide.
Better-than-expected growth performance reflects the underlying positive changes in the Greek economy – but net investment is in fact negative, while Greece has various institutional weaknesses. Further improvements must be made regarding Greece’s attractiveness to foreign direct investment. A new (at least precautionary) financial assistance programme would improve trust in continued reforms and also address eventual public debt financing difficulties.
The recent improvement in asset quality cannot mask other growing concerns in China’s banking sector. Beyond liquidity concerns, other structural issues such as low profitability and insufficient generation of organic capital, are emerging.
Morocco is an interesting case of structural labour market disequilibrium despite respectable growth, and illustrates the issues facing the region’s oil-importer countries
This event will feature a presentation of the EBRD Transition Report 2017-18.
During the crisis, the ECB resorted to a number of unconventional monetary tools. This paper discusses how to phase out these policies and what the ‘new normal’ in monetary policy should look like.
On 26 October, Bruegel is organizing an interactive brainstorming seminar on Growth, Productivity and Social Progress in Europe. This is a closed-door, high-level workshop for a selected number of experts in the field.
By linking growth with both employment and the imperative for India to hold its own with China for strategic autonomy, Prime Minister Modi has brought sustainable, high quality, inclusive economic growth to the centre of political discussion, which is where it rightfully belongs.
Reinhilde Veugelers' chapter in "Investment and Growth in Advanced Economies", conference volume of the European Central Bank’s Forum on central banking in Sintra.