Download publication

Working Paper

Changing trade patterns, unchanging European and global governance

If our projections to 2020 are broadly right, then many established frameworks for the running of the world economy and its governance are not going to be fit for purpose, and will need to change. The global monetary system itself, and global organisations such as the IMF, G7, and G20 are going to have to adapt considerably if they want to remain legitimate representatives of the world order. The alternative is their relegation to irrelevance.

By: and Date: February 25, 2014 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

See also comment ‘The World in 2020

The world economy is going through its biggest transformation in a relatively short space time. There have been many explanations for this phenomenon but the unprecedented scale and pace of this change and, most crucially, its implications, still seems little understood. In turn, there has been little preparation for, or adjustment to, this changing world, though if the change continues at this pace, the effectiveness of many global institutions in their current form will be threatened.

We highlight the dramatic degree of the shifts taking place in world GDP and trade and include fresh projections of what world trade patterns might look like in 2020, should the trends observed over the past decade to continue. We also show the resulting shift in trade relationships for many key countries. European member states tend to have quite different trading partners’ profiles, and this heterogeneity is quite likely to become more pronounced with time. This, in turn, suggests a significant challenge for the effective functioning of the euro area and weakens the original rationale of its creation.

If our projections to 2020 are broadly right, then many established frameworks for the running of the world economy and its governance are not going to be fit for purpose, and will need to change. The global monetary system itself, and global organisations such as the IMF, G7, and G20 are going to have to adapt considerably if they want to remain legitimate representatives of the world order. The alternative is their relegation to irrelevance.


Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /home/bruegelo/public_html/wp-content/themes/bruegel/content.php on line 449
View comments
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

State of transatlantic trade relations

A conversation on transatlantic relations with Michael Froman.

Speakers: Michael Froman, André Sapir and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: June 21, 2018
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jun
26
08:30

EU-LAC Economic Forum 2018

The second edition of the EU-LAC Economic Forum, a high level gathering for in-depth research-based exchanges on economic issues between European, Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) policy makers and experts.

Speakers: Angel Badillo, Federico Bonaglia, Sylvie Durán, Emilio Lamo de Espinosa, Alicia García-Herrero, Elisa Grafulla, Gonzalo Gutiérrez, Bert Hoffmann, Juan Jung, Carlos Malamud, J. Scott Marcus, Neven Mimica, Fabio Nasarre de Letosa, Detlef Nolte, Guillermo Fernández de Soto, Anne Sperschneider and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jun
28
12:30

Trade war trinity: analysis of global consequences

Analysis of the long-term impact of the trade war and its three key players: EU, US, and China.

Speakers: Alicia García-Herrero and Carl B Hamilton Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Demographics and Long Run Growth

Scholars have been investigating the relationship between demographics and long term growth, in the context of the secular stagnation hypothesis. We review recent contributions.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 18, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

The G7 is dead, long live the G7

The summit in Charlevoix left behind a Group of Seven in complete disarray. The authors think that the G-group, in its current formulation, no longer has a reason to exist, and it should be replaced with a more representative group of countries. In this fast-changing world, is the G7 only a relic of the past?

By: Jim O‘Neill and Alessio Terzi Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 13, 2018
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Working Paper

European and Chinese trade competition in third markets: the case of Latin America

While Europe continues to hold important trade powers, the rise of China in the global economy has significantly reshaped international trade and competition. In this paper, the authors show that the degree of competition between both powers in Latin America has risen in the past decade due to China's increased trade of high-quality products. They address whether China is an increasingly relevant competitor for Europe in Latin America and in which sectors China-EU competition is fiercer. These findings should be a wake-up call to Europe in its quest to remain competitive at the global level.

By: Alicia García-Herrero, Thibault Marbach and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 7, 2018
Read article More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: Central banking and the problem of unelected power

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff discusses current tensions in central banking governance with Paul Tucker, former deputy governor of the Bank of England and author of the newly released book 'Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State'.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: June 5, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Trade wars: Just how exposed are EU Member States and industries to the US market?

This blog focuses on how a more restricted access to US final demand could affect EU economies and sectors, by measuring their share of value-added absorbed in the US. The exposure of the EU as a whole in value-added terms is lower compared to that suggested by gross exports to GDP and, overall, gross exports misconstrue the picture of spill-overs through trade linkages. For individual countries, the degree to which gross exports overestimate or underestimate exposure is relatively small, with the important exception of Ireland. However, gross exports significantly overestimate the exposure of EU manufacturing to US final demand.

By: Francesco Chiacchio and Konstantinos Efstathiou Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 1, 2018
Read about event

Upcoming Event

Sep
3-4
08:30

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2018

The 2018 Annual Meetings will be held on 3-4 September and will feature sessions on European and global economic governance, as well as finance, energy and innovation.

Speakers: Maria Åsenius, Richard E. Baldwin, Maria Demertzis, Mariya Gabriel, Péter Kaderják, Joanne Kellermann, Jörg Kukies, Bruno Le Maire, Philippe Lespinard, Montserrat Mir Roca, Dominique Moïsi, Jean Pierre Mustier, Emma Navarro, Ana Palacio, Lucrezia Reichlin, André Sapir, Jean-Claude Trichet, Margrethe Vestager, Reinhilde Veugelers, Georg Zachmann and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Brussels Comic Strip Museum, Rue des Sables 20, 1000 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Making trade work for all – the Danish case

This event discussed how we can make trade work for all, focusing on the example of Denmark.

Speakers: Maria Åsenius, Sofia Bournou, Brian Mikkelsen, André Sapir, Eva Rytter Sunesen, Guntram B. Wolff and Casper Arnsbo Poulsen Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 28, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

China’s new role in the global economy

The changing role of China in the world economy has recently been highlighted by its registering of a first current account deficit in 17 years. We review the economists’ analyses of this new role and associated challenges.

By: Nicolas Moës Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 28, 2018
Read about event

Past Event

Past Event

Where is China’s financial system heading? Implications for Europe

How ready is China for the transformation of its financial system and how will this effect Europe?

Speakers: Elena Flores, Alicia García-Herrero, Gene Ma, Hu Yuwei and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 25, 2018
Load more posts