Download publication

Working Paper

Changing trade patterns, unchanging European and global governance

If our projections to 2020 are broadly right, then many established frameworks for the running of the world economy and its governance are not going to be fit for purpose, and will need to change. The global monetary system itself, and global organisations such as the IMF, G7, and G20 are going to have to adapt considerably if they want to remain legitimate representatives of the world order. The alternative is their relegation to irrelevance.

By: and Date: February 25, 2014 Global Economics & Governance Tags & Topics

See also comment ‘The World in 2020

The world economy is going through its biggest transformation in a relatively short space time. There have been many explanations for this phenomenon but the unprecedented scale and pace of this change and, most crucially, its implications, still seems little understood. In turn, there has been little preparation for, or adjustment to, this changing world, though if the change continues at this pace, the effectiveness of many global institutions in their current form will be threatened.

We highlight the dramatic degree of the shifts taking place in world GDP and trade and include fresh projections of what world trade patterns might look like in 2020, should the trends observed over the past decade to continue. We also show the resulting shift in trade relationships for many key countries. European member states tend to have quite different trading partners’ profiles, and this heterogeneity is quite likely to become more pronounced with time. This, in turn, suggests a significant challenge for the effective functioning of the euro area and weakens the original rationale of its creation.

If our projections to 2020 are broadly right, then many established frameworks for the running of the world economy and its governance are not going to be fit for purpose, and will need to change. The global monetary system itself, and global organisations such as the IMF, G7, and G20 are going to have to adapt considerably if they want to remain legitimate representatives of the world order. The alternative is their relegation to irrelevance.

View comments
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Alicia García-Herrero

China's political agenda for the G20 summit

Chairing the G20 offers China a unique opportunity to set the tone in global economic debates, and the Hangzhou summit is the focus of attention. The author predicts that trade, structural reforms and a bigger global role for China will be Beijing’s three priorities. But how realistic are these goals?

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: August 22, 2016
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Jérémie Cohen-Setton

The Fed’s rethinking of normality

What’s at stake: As we approach Jackson Hole, monetary policymakers are considering how to redesign monetary policy strategies to better cope with a low r-star environment.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: August 22, 2016
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

External Publication

cover

Seven years after the crisis: intersecting perspectives

This joint publication brings together the papers produced as part of the first collaboration between Bruegel and the OCP Policy Center. Within the theme of “Seven Years after the Crisis: Intersecting Perspectives” our two organisations launched a “Platform for Advanced & Emerging Economies Policy Dialogue” in Rabat on 1 April 2016.

By: Rim Berahab, Nuria Boot, Uri Dadush, Karim El Aynaoui, Karim El Mokri, Simone Tagliapietra, Karen E. Wilson, Guntram B. Wolff and Georg Zachmann Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: August 19, 2016
Read about event

Upcoming Event

Sep
6-7
09:30

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2016

The Annual Meetings are a high point in Bruegel's calendar.

Speakers: Michel Barnier, Corso Bavagnoli, Joachim Bitterlich, Arnoud Boot, Albert Bravo-Biosca, Elmar Brok, Nadia Calviño, Tom Carver, Daniel Daianu, Zsolt Darvas, Paulina Dejmek-Hack, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Alicia García-Herrero, Sylvie Goulard, Charles Grant, Dominique Guellec, Connie Hedegaard, Vazil Hudák, Brigitte Knopf, Pascal Lamy, Lawrence J. Lau, Matthew Lobner, Robert Madelin, Sylvie Matherat, Simone Mori, Erik F. Nielsen, Barbara Novick, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Romano Prodi, Olli Rehn, Carmen M. Reinhart, André Sapir, Dirk Schoenmaker, Ludger Schuknecht, Egon Schulz, Maroš Šefčovič, Jeremy Shapiro, Scott Stern, Jean-Claude Trichet, Laszlo Varro, Nicolas Véron, Reinhilde Veugelers, Helen Wallace, Guntram B. Wolff and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Autoworld, Brussels, Belgium
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

IMG_1985

The G20 in a post-Brexit world

As Britain enters a period of political and economic instability, following a referendum vote that many now interpret as anti-globalisation, it is worth reflecting on what the consequences of Brexit will be for the world’s ‘economic steering committee’: the G20.

By: Alessio Terzi Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: August 18, 2016
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Sep
21-22
09:00

13th Asia Europe Economic Forum (AEEF)

This edition of the of the Asia-Europe Economic Forum is entitled: “Riding the new waves: Asian and European Economic Perspectives” and will be held in Beijing on 21-22 September 2016.

Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Beijing
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

What can the eurozone learn from US monetary history?

Many in the EU look to the USA as a model for monetary union in the Eurozone. But how easy was it to create such a union, and what can Europe learn from the USA’s experience?

By: Bruegel Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: August 12, 2016
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Oct
5
10:00

Inclusive growth: Comparing the EU to the US

How does socioeconomic inequality differ across the Atlantic and what role can social and fiscal policies play in promoting inclusive growth?

Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: New York
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Nataraj_Geethanjali_Profile-Picture1

Will TTIP survive Brexit?

There are concerns that the UK’s decision to leave the EU may jeopardise future TTIP negotiations. Some fear Brexit could make the EU a less attractive trade partner for the US. However, it seems that the new US administration as well as upcoming elections in Germany and France could end up posing bigger threats to the trade agreement than Brexit.

By: Geethanjali Nataraj Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 27, 2016
Read article More by this author

Opinion

Alicia García-Herrero

‘Old China’ bad, ‘New China’ good: Growing divergence in Chinese corporate health

Divergence in debt levels and corporate health in China is growing, with many state-owned companies still stuck in the past and new industries such as tourism and healthcare overtaking the old ones. While fiscal and monetary stimulus may temporarily cover up the problems of companies in the old industries, a restructuring of these sectors seems inevitable.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 26, 2016
Read article

Blog Post

Alicia García-Herrero
DSC_0160

Assessing China’s post-Brexit globalisation strategy

As the world comes to terms with the result of the UK's Brexit referendum, what will it mean for China? The authors suggest that the short-term impact will be smaller for China than for other regions. But there are important considerations further ahead.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 19, 2016
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Jérémie Cohen-Setton

Racial prejudice in police use of force

What’s at stake: This week was dominated by a new study by Roland Fryer exploring racial differences in police use of force. His counterintuitive result that blacks and Hispanics experience discrimination for all types of interaction involving force except for officer involved shootings provoked debate after the study was published on Monday.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 18, 2016
Load more posts