Blog Post

Can Europe survive without Russian gas?

Replacing 130 bcm of natural gas imports from Russia within a year would be a significant challenge, but, as our rough estimates show, not impossible.

By: Date: March 27, 2014 Topic: Energy & Climate

Read our comments on Ukraine and Russia Eastern promises: The IMF-Ukraine bailout‘, Interactive chart: How Europe can replace Russian gas‘, ‘The cost of escalating sanctions on Russia over Ukraine and Crimea‘, ‘Russian roulette‘, ‘Blogs review: Wild Wild East‘ and ‘Gas imports: Ukraine’s expensive addiction

Based on interactions with various stakeholders we updated several figures on March 25th.

  • Increasing imports from North Africa by 15 bcm will be difficult, as existing pipeline capacities to Italy are fully used already, while increasing exports to Spain will not be helpful, as no additional gas can be brought from the Iberian Peninsula to the rest of Europe. We adjust our estimate to 5 bcm.
  • The numbers for district heating gas consumption were largely overstated. We correct the corresponding numbers to 10 bcm. As it is anyway the most expensive option, it would have only been selected as a last resort.
  • Switching district heating from gas to oil in the import constraint countries Finland, Latvia and Estonia is, however, possible. Switching in Lithuania seems to be more difficult. Here, in the short term other options need to be developed. In the medium term Lithuania will install a floating LNG regasification terminal to allow gas imports from international LNG markets.
  • Increasing production in the Netherlands is technically possible, possibly much more than the 20 bcm we put. However, the Dutch government might be quite reluctant to allow even 20 bcm of additional production, as it just issued legislation to reduce production in order to control the gas-production induced seismic activities. So it is a question of political will and compensations. Hence we stick to the 20 bcm/y.
  • Power production from natural gas plays an important role in the UK and Italy. It will not be possible to fully replace those plants, given the lack of alternative capacities. We corrected the potential gas savings from 60 bcm/y to 40 bcm/y.
  • With these adjustments, we conclude that up to 190 bcm of alternative supplies might be available for the coming year.


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.

View comments
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Are economic and political freedoms interrelated?

Democracy has not always accompanied market economy. But in modern societies, economic and political freedoms are increasingly interconnected. Democracy and market economy can support each other. This is particularly true in post-communist economies of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Thus, authoritarian tendencies observed in these and other regions can negatively affect quality of economic policy and governance.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 10, 2018
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

External Publication

The impact of global decarbonisation policies and technological improvements on oil and gas producing countries in the Middle East and North Africa

Simone Tagliapietra contributed to the IEMED Mediterranean Yearbook 2018 with a chapter on the impact of decarbonisation policies on oil and gas producing countries in the MENA region.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate Date: October 3, 2018
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

External Publication

LNG and Nord Stream 2 in the context of uncertain gas import demand from the EU

Georg Zachmann sees the development of import demand for natural gas in the EU as uncertain. In case of strongly increasing import demand, both Nord Stream 2 and liquified natural gas imports could contribute to ensure European supply.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: September 27, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Something Putin and Juncker appear to agree on – the euro

“It is absurd that Europe pays for 80% of its energy import bill – worth €300 billion a year – in US dollars when only roughly 2% of our energy imports come from the United States,” said President Juncker in his state of the union speech.* Europe’s largest supplier of energy – Russia, who accounts for a third of that bill – couldn’t agree more. Russia’s offer to switch to euros in trade with the EU will likely be costly to implement, but the US switch towards unilateralism is forcing its long-standing partners to question the dollar’s global dominance.

By: Elina Ribakova Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 25, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Beyond Nord Stream 2: a look at Russia’s Turk Stream project

Since 2015, Nord Stream 2 has been at the centre of all European discussions concerning the EU-Russia relations. But as endless political discussions in Europe are being held on this pipeline project, the pipes of another similar Russian pipeline project – Turk Stream – are already being laid by Gazprom at the bottom of the Black Sea. This piece looks at these developments, analysing their strategic impacts on Europe.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate Date: July 4, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Ukraine: The struggle for reforms continues

The modernisation of the Ukrainian economy and state continues to develop at an unsatisfactory pace due to a lack of pro-reform political consensus. The two upcoming election campaigns in 2019 (presidential and parliamentary) make the reform process even slower and additionally put its effectiveness and sustainability under risk. The international community has a limited toolkit to overcome this stalemate.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 4, 2018
Read article

Blog Post

The Iran nuclear deal crisis: Lessons from the 1982 transatlantic dispute over the Siberian gas pipeline

A US president taking a unilateral decision that affects European interests; European policymakers outraged at US interference in their affairs; European businesses fearing losing access to some international markets – sound familiar? This is the story of a crisis that took place in 1982 regarding the Siberian gas pipeline project; its outcome should inspire optimism in the Europeans’ capacity to counteract Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the Iranian nuclear deal.

By: Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol and Angela Romano Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 23, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

The clock is ticking: Ukraine’s last chance to prevent Nord Stream 2

Ukraine is running out of time to provide western gas consumers with the necessary trust to abandon the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: January 24, 2018
Read article More by this author

Opinion

EU should pay member states to get rid of coal

The European Union should act to ensure the continued transformation of its energy system, and encourage member states to overcome their dependence on coal for supplying electricity. Helping coal-mining regions with the transition should require €150 million per year – a mere 0.1% of the total EU budget – and the EU would not even need to establish a new fund to support it.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 5, 2017
Read article Download PDF More by this author

Policy Brief

Beyond coal: facilitating the transition in Europe

Europe has a dirty energy secret: coal is producing a quarter of the electricity, but three-quarters of the emissions. The EU should propose that its member countries speedily phase out coal and put in place a scheme to guarantee the social welfare of coal miners who stand to lose their jobs, making a better use of the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF)

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 23, 2017
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

The impact of Brexit on the Irish energy system – pragmatism vs. principles

Brexit promises pain for Ireland that could be cut off from the EU internal market and be left exposed to market instability in the UK. Georg Zachmann assesses the scale of the possible damage for Ireland, and how the UK and EU might use the special energy relations on the Irish island to commit to a pragmatic solution.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 21, 2017
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

External Publication

Central Asia—twenty-five years after the breakup of the USSR

Central Asia consists of five culturally and ethnically diverse countries that have followed different paths to political and economic transformation in the past 25 years. The main policy challenge for the five Central Asian economies is to move away from commodity-based growth strategies to market-oriented diversification and adoption of a broad spectrum of economic, institutional and political reforms

By: Marek Dabrowski and Uuriintuya Batsaikhan Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: November 14, 2017
Load more posts