Blog Post

Chart of the Week: 54% of EU jobs at risk of computerisation

Based on a European application of Frey & Osborne (2013)’s data on the probability of job automation across occupations, the proportion of the EU work force predicted to be impacted significantly by advances in technology over the coming decades ranges from the mid-40% range (similar to the US) up to well over 60%.

By: Date: July 24, 2014

Based on a European application of Frey & Osborne (2013)’s data on the probability of job automation across occupations, the proportion of the EU work force predicted to be impacted significantly by advances in technology over the coming decades ranges from the mid-40% range (similar to the US) up to well over 60%.

 

Source: Bruegel calculations based on Frey & Osborne (2013), ILO, EU Labour Force Survey

Those authors expect that key technological advances – particular in machine learning, artificial intelligence, and mobile robotics – will impact primarily upon low-wage, low-skill sectors traditionally immune from automation. As such, based on our application it is unsurprising that wealthy, northern EU countries are projected to be less affected than their peripheral neighbours.

But irrespective of geography these impacts will be substantial, averaging 54% across EU-28. In spite of several caveats we note in another more detailed blog post, the presently second-order issue of labour allocation in the face of technological change is likely to become a key policy concern in the coming years. What these estimates imply for policy is clear: if we believe that technology will be able to overcome traditional hurdles among non-routine cognitive tasks then we must equip the next generation of workers with skills that benefit from technology rather than being threatened by it. Such skills are likely to emphasise social and creative intelligence, which suggests that appropriate shifts in education policy are surely requisite in order to meet this automated challenge.


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.

Topics

Comments

Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

E-commerce in Europe: Lessons for parcel delivery from electronic communications

Bruegel was pleased to welcome Andrus Ansip, Vice-President of the European Commission and European Commissioner for the Digital Single Market. He discussed the place of parcel delivery in the DSM, and commented on research by Bruegel scholars suggesting there are useful parallels with telecommunications interconnection and roaming.

Speakers: Andrus Ansip, Jean-Paul Forceville, Annegret Groebel, J. Scott Marcus and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 3, 2016
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Carlo Altomonte
bekes_2012b

The knowns and unknowns of the European competitiveness debate

Micro-economic features of economic systems can have a major impact on national performance. Policymakers should therefore reconfigure their scoreboards to reflect the roles played in a country’s economic growth by large internationalized firms, global value chains or resource reallocation.

By: Carlo Altomonte and Gábor Békés Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: April 27, 2016
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Competing with big data

There is plenty of hype around big data. But does it only offer operational advantages, or can it provide firms with sustainable competitive advantage?

Speakers: Anja Lambrecht, Jakob Kucharczyk, Beatriz Sanz Fernández-Vega, Cyril Ritter, Catherine Tucker and Karen E. Wilson Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: April 26, 2016
Read about event

Upcoming Event

30 
May
2016
12:00

State Aid evaluation: two years of implementation

Since mid-2014, economic evaluation of large subsidy programmes in fields such as R&D, regional aid, broadband, energy has become a requirement of the European Commission’s assessment under the EU State aid rules. Member States have to conduct an ex-post impact evaluation according to a set of substantive and procedural guidelines. In the first two years […]

Topic: Energy & Climate, Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

7 
Jun
2016
12:30

Internet taxation: challenges and policy recommendations

As the economy moves online, it becomes more difficult for national tax authorities to collect revenue. How great is the impact, and what should corporate taxation look like in the digital age?

Speakers: Francis Bloch, J. Scott Marcus and Georgios Petropoulos Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

What can Europe learn from US science policy?

There were high expectations for the effect of the COMPETES Acts on the US research and innovation landscape. But were these expectations met and what can Europea learn from the US experience?

Speakers: Jean-Pierre Bourguignon, Tommy Dolan, Jeff Furman, Kurt Vandenberghe and Reinhilde Veugelers Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: April 7, 2016
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Policy Contribution

The European Union’s growing innovation divide

The European Union’s growing innovation divide

This Policy Contribution examines the EU’s struggle to improve its capacity for innovation, in particular the differences between EU member states in terms of their capacity to innovate.

By: Reinhilde Veugelers Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: April 7, 2016
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

IMG_20151009_103117 (3)
IMG_20151119_103626

German Facebook probe links data protection and competition policy

On March 2, 2016, the German Federal Cartel Office opened an antitrust investigation into Facebook’s contract clauses on data use, in what appears to be the first antitrust case in Europe based on a breach of data protection rules. We discuss the link between data protection rules and competition policy, which is still underexplored.

By: Nuria Boot and Georgios Petropoulos Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: March 14, 2016
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Sustainability and green innovation in competition policy

The green agenda is a top priority of the Juncker commission. In this event we will focus the role of competition policy in promoting sustainability and green innovation.

Speakers: Céline Gauer, Maarten Pieter Schinkel, Yossi Spiegel and Reinhilde Veugelers Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: March 2, 2016
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Tommaso Aquilante
Oscar F. Bustinza
Ferran photo

Services in European manufacturing: servinomics explained

Making the manufacturing sector more competitive is vital to restore economic growth in Europe. Changing business models to sell services as well as products can provide useful revenue to manufacturers.

By: Tommaso Aquilante, Oscar F. Bustinza and Ferran Vendrell-Herrero Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: March 1, 2016
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Working Paper

The dynamics of leniency application and the knock-on effect of cartel enforcement

The dynamics of leniency application and the knock-on effect of cartel enforcement

This paper shows that antitrust investigation in a market increases leniency applications in related markets. The authors used a novel application of multi-spell discrete-time survival analysis for a sample of cartels prosecuted by the EC between 1996 and 2014.

By: Jun Zhou Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: February 29, 2016
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Working Paper

Getting the most from public R&D spending in times of budgetary austerity

Getting the most from public R&D spending in times of budgetary austerity

The dangerous cocktail of high debt and low growth in Europe calls for smart public investment that fosters growth whithout being a burden for public finances. Can public spending in R&D sustain innovation and growth, and does it qualify as a smart investment?

By: Reinhilde Veugelers Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: February 24, 2016
Load more posts