Blog Post

Chart of the Week: 54% of EU jobs at risk of computerisation

If we believe that technology will be able to overcome traditional hurdles among non-routine cognitive tasks then we must equip the next generation of workers with skills that benefit from technology rather than being threatened by it.

By: Date: July 24, 2014 Innovation & Competition Policy Tags & Topics

Based on a European application of Frey & Osborne (2013)’s data on the probability of job automation across occupations, the proportion of the EU work force predicted to be impacted significantly by advances in technology over the coming decades ranges from the mid-40% range (similar to the US) up to well over 60%.

Source: Bruegel calculations based on Frey & Osborne (2013), ILO, EU Labour Force Survey

Those authors expect that key technological advances – particular in machine learning, artificial intelligence, and mobile robotics – will impact primarily upon low-wage, low-skill sectors traditionally immune from automation. As such, based on our application it is unsurprising that wealthy, northern EU countries are projected to be less affected than their peripheral neighbours.

But irrespective of geography these impacts will be substantial, averaging 54% across EU-28. In spite of several caveats we note in another more detailed blog post, the presently second-order issue of labour allocation in the face of technological change is likely to become a key policy concern in the coming years. What these estimates imply for policy is clear: if we believe that technology will be able to overcome traditional hurdles among non-routine cognitive tasks then we must equip the next generation of workers with skills that benefit from technology rather than being threatened by it. Such skills are likely to emphasise social and creative intelligence, which suggests that appropriate shifts in education policy are surely requisite in order to meet this automated challenge.


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.

View comments
Read about event

Past Event

Past Event

State Aid evaluation: two years of implementation

This event will discuss the evaluation of state aid and how it can contribute to better policy-making.

Speakers: Gert-Jan Koopman, Pantelis Koutroumpis, Nicola Pesaresi, Theo Roelandt, Otto Toivanen, Reinhilde Veugelers and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate, Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 30, 2016
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jun
7
12:30

Internet taxation: challenges and policy recommendations

As the economy moves online, it becomes more difficult for national tax authorities to collect revenue. How great is the impact, and what should corporate taxation look like in the digital age?

Speakers: Francis Bloch, Dmitri Jegorov, Helena Kiurusalmi, J. Scott Marcus and Georgios Petropoulos Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Scott Marcus
IMG_20151119_103626

European e-commerce needs better visibility into cross-border delivery prices

Consumers, retail shippers, and European and national regulatory authorities could benefit from enhanced visibility into the price of shipping goods across borders in Europe.

By: J. Scott Marcus and Georgios Petropoulos Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: May 25, 2016
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Policy Contribution

E-commerce in Europe: parcel delivery prices in a digital single market

E-commerce in Europe: parcel delivery prices in a digital single market

The expansion of e-commerce, a substantial growth opportunity for Europe, is hampered by high cross-border parcel delivery prices. This paper analyses the economics of cross-border parcel delivery and it draws a comparison with the telecommunications sector.

By: J. Scott Marcus and Georgios Petropoulos Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: May 25, 2016
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jun
30
13:00

The role of market definition in a globalised economy

Have competition authorities kept up with globalisation? Geographic market definition is one of the most pressing issues.

Speakers: Raphaël de Coninck, Giulio Federico, Amelia Fletcher, Bruce Lyons and J. Scott Marcus Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jul
14
12:30

Tackling antimicrobial resistance (AMR)

Pathological microbes are increasingly resistant to antimicrobial treatments. The resulting health crisis is one of the greatest challenges facing society. At this event, Jim O'Neill will present the Independent Review on Antimicrobial Resistance and a panel will discuss how to tackle drug resistance.

Speakers: Sally Davies, Charles Knirsch, Jim O‘Neill and Xavier Prats-Monné Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

E-commerce in Europe: Lessons for parcel delivery from electronic communications

Bruegel was pleased to welcome Andrus Ansip, Vice-President of the European Commission and European Commissioner for the Digital Single Market. He discussed the place of parcel delivery in the DSM, and commented on research by Bruegel scholars suggesting there are useful parallels with telecommunications interconnection and roaming.

Speakers: Andrus Ansip, Jean-Paul Forceville, Annegret Groebel, J. Scott Marcus and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 3, 2016
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Carlo Altomonte
bekes_2012b

The knowns and unknowns of the European competitiveness debate

Micro-economic features of economic systems can have a major impact on national performance. Policymakers should therefore reconfigure their scoreboards to reflect the roles played in a country’s economic growth by large internationalized firms, global value chains or resource reallocation.

By: Carlo Altomonte and Gábor Békés Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: April 27, 2016
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Competing with big data

There is plenty of hype around big data. But does it only offer operational advantages, or can it provide firms with sustainable competitive advantage?

Speakers: Anja Lambrecht, Jakob Kucharczyk, Beatriz Sanz Fernández-Vega, Cyril Ritter, Catherine Tucker and Karen E. Wilson Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: April 26, 2016
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

What can Europe learn from US science policy?

There were high expectations for the effect of the COMPETES Acts on the US research and innovation landscape. But were these expectations met and what can Europea learn from the US experience?

Speakers: Jean-Pierre Bourguignon, Tommy Dolan, Jeff Furman, Kurt Vandenberghe and Reinhilde Veugelers Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: April 7, 2016
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Policy Contribution

The European Union’s growing innovation divide

The European Union’s growing innovation divide

This Policy Contribution examines the EU’s struggle to improve its capacity for innovation, in particular the differences between EU member states in terms of their capacity to innovate.

By: Reinhilde Veugelers Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: April 7, 2016
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

IMG_20151009_103117 (3)
IMG_20151119_103626

German Facebook probe links data protection and competition policy

On March 2, 2016, the German Federal Cartel Office opened an antitrust investigation into Facebook’s contract clauses on data use, in what appears to be the first antitrust case in Europe based on a breach of data protection rules. We discuss the link between data protection rules and competition policy, which is still underexplored.

By: Nuria Boot and Georgios Petropoulos Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: March 14, 2016
Load more posts