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Policy Contribution

The harsh reality of Ukraine’s fiscal arithmetic

In this Policy Contribution Marek Dabrowski argues that Ukraine must accelerate and better manage its reform process so as to overcome fundamental weaknesses in its economy and finances.

By: Date: June 11, 2015 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

• Ukraine is struggling with both external aggression and the dramatically poor shape of its economy. The pace of political and institutional change has so far been too slow to prevent the deepening of the fiscal and balance-of-payments crises, while business confidence continues to be undermined.

• Unfortunately, the 2015 International Monetary Fund Extended Fund Facility programme repeats many weaknesses of the 2014 IMF Stand-by Arrangement: slow pace of fiscal adjustment especially in the two key areas of energy prices and pension entitlements, lack of a comprehensive structural and institutional reform vision, and insufficient external financing to close the expected balance-of-payments gap and allow Ukraine to return to debt sustainability in the long term.

• The reform process in Ukraine must be accelerated and better managed. A frontloaded fiscal adjustment is necessary to stabilise public finances and the balance-of-payments, and to bring inflation down. The international community, especially the European Union, should offer sufficient financial aid backed by strong conditionality, technical assistance and support to Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity.

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Blog Post

Ukraine: The struggle for reforms continues

The modernisation of the Ukrainian economy and state continues to develop at an unsatisfactory pace due to a lack of pro-reform political consensus. The two upcoming election campaigns in 2019 (presidential and parliamentary) make the reform process even slower and additionally put its effectiveness and sustainability under risk. The international community has a limited toolkit to overcome this stalemate.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 4, 2018
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Opinion

The clock is ticking: Ukraine’s last chance to prevent Nord Stream 2

Ukraine is running out of time to provide western gas consumers with the necessary trust to abandon the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: January 24, 2018
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Ukraine’s oligarchs are bad for democracy and economic reform

Ukraine’s late and incomplete economic reform created a class of super-wealthy oligarchs who now stand in the way of further liberalisation. The oligarchs’ oversized influence only deepens public distrust in a structurally weak political system. Nevertheless, Ukraine is making some attempts to uproot corruption and the next steps are clear.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 3, 2017
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Policy Contribution

Ukraine’s unfinished reform agenda

This Policy Contribution analyses the Ukrainian economic, institutional and political reforms of 2014-17 in terms of their sustainability and completeness, and evaluates what remains to be done. Compared to previous attempts, the current reform round has proved more successful and some politically difficult decisions have been taken (for example, the elimination of gas subsidies), but it remains incomplete in many important areas

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 27, 2017
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Opinion

What future for Europe?

The Commission's White Paper on the future of the EU sets out five scenarios, but misses the fundamental questions facing Europe. How should the EU interact with its neighbourhood? How can we manage the tensions created by multi-speed integration? And above all how can the Euro be made sustainable in the absence of a major step towards fiscal union?

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 16, 2017
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External Publication

Currency crises in post-Soviet economies — a never ending story?

This paper offers an updated and comprehensive analysis of the currency crises in Russia and the former Soviet Union economies.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 18, 2016
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Past Event

Past Event

Euro-Mediterranean energy talks

The energy landscape of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean is inefficient and unsustainable. Yet there is much potential for cooperation. How could the EU work with this region to improve energy systems?

Speakers: Ali Aissaoui, Moncef Ben Abdallah, Jorge Borrego, Claudia Brandus, Uri Dadush, Karim El Aynaoui, Angelo Ferrante, Francesco Giunti, Ali Hached, Manfred Hafner, Ezzedine Khalfallah, Stefano Manservisi, Mehmet Öğütçü, Francis Perrin, Sabina Ratti, Edoardo Reviglio, André Sapir, Simone Tagliapietra, Hans van Steen, Guntram B. Wolff and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 31, 2016
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Blog Post

EU Association Agreement could help Ukraine to reform

Ukraine’s closer ties with the EU have been controversial. The Association Agreement is now facing a referendum in the Netherlands. But what exactly is in the agreement, and what could it mean in practice?

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 16, 2016
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Opinion

Helping Ukraine to reform Naftogaz’s gas transmission business

Reform of Ukraine’s gas sector is under threat. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development should step in.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: November 23, 2015
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Designing a new EU-Turkey strategic gas partnership

The 2014 Ukraine crisis reinforced the EU’s quest for security of gas supply. The European Commission released an Energy Union Communication in February, calling for intensified work on the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and for the establishment of a new strategic energy partnership with Turkey.

By: Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: July 1, 2015
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Policy Contribution

Designing a new EU-Turkey strategic gas partnership

This Policy Contribution discusses what the EU and Turkey can expect from the establishment of a new strategic energy partnership. The authors focus on the Southern Gas Corridor, but also assess the impact of the Turkish Stream project.

By: Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: July 1, 2015
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Blog Post

The slow-reform trap

Ukraine is perhaps the most convincing example of a victim of slow reform. Since independence in 1991, it has missed several political windows of opportunity to comprehensively reform its economy and state institutions. Had these reforms been put in place, today Ukraine would be a different country. 

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: June 17, 2015
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