Download publication

Working Paper

Squaring the cycle: capital flows, financial cycles, and macro-prudential policy in the euro area

The financial crisis has prompted a renewed interest in macro-prudential policy as a framework to address the stability of the financial system as a whole, rather than only its individual components. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the European macro-prudential discussion by establishing empirically the special challenges that the set-up of macro-prudential policy in the euro area needs to confront.

By: Date: November 18, 2015 Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation

Highlights

  • Before the financial and economic crisis, monetary policy unification and interest rate convergence resulted in the divergence of euro-area countries’ financial cycles. This divergence is deeply rooted in the financial integration spurred by currency union and strongly correlated with intra-euro area capital flows. Macro-prudential policy will need to deal with potentially divergent financial cycles, while catering for potential cross-border spillovers from domestic policies, which domestic authorities have little incentive to internalise.
  • The current framework is unfit to deal effectively with these challenges. The European Central Bank should be responsible for consistent and coherent application of macro-prudential policy, with appropriate divergences catering for national differences in financial conditions. The close link between domestic financial cycles and intra-euro area capital flows raises the question of whether macro-prudential policy in the euro area can be compatible with free flows of capital. Financial cycle divergence had its counterpart in the build-up of macroeconomic imbalances, so effective implementation of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure would support and strengthen macro-prudential policy.
View comments
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Oct
18
09:00

Financial Stability Conference 2017

EU at Crossroads: How to respond to Misalignments in Bank Regulation and achieve a consistent financial Framework?

Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

The international effects of ECB’s monetary policy

What’s at stake: the literature on monetary policy spillovers is abundant of studies investigating the impact of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcements and actions on emerging market economies. More recently, economists have been investigating the effect of the ECB’s credit easing as well.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 24, 2017
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Policy Contribution

Precautionary recapitalisation: time for a review?

While precautionary recapitalisation is a legitimate instrument for bank crisis management, the conditions set for it by BRRD (Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive) are restrictive and have so far been effective to prevent its inappropriate use on insolvent banks. Nevertheless, the European Stability Mechanism should be empowered to participate in future precautionary recapitalisations.

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: July 13, 2017
Read article Download PDF More by this author

External Publication

European Parliament

Precautionary recapitalisations: time for a review

Precautionary recapitalisation, a tool for public intervention in the banking sector defined in the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), is a legitimate instrument for bank crisis management. The conditions set for it by BRRD are restrictive and have so far been effective to prevent its inappropriate use on insolvent banks. Outside of the scope of BRRD, the co-legislators should consider a reform of the EU audit framework to improve audit quality, and the European Stability Mechanism should be empowered to participate in future precautionary recapitalisations.

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: European Parliament, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: July 12, 2017
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Policy Contribution

A macro approach to international bank resolution

As regulators rush to strengthen banking supervision and implement bank resolution regimes, a macro approach to resolution is needed that considers both the contagion effects of bail-in and the continuing need for a fiscal backstop to the financial system. This can be facilitated through the completion of a banking union in which the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) becomes the fiscal backstop to the euro-area banking system.

By: Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: July 10, 2017
Read about event

Past Event

Past Event

Is there a way out of non-performing loans in Europe?

At this event we looked at the issue of non-performing loans in Europe. The event also saw the launch of the latest issue of "European Economy – Banks, Regulation and the Real Sector."

Speakers: Emilios Avgouleas, Giorgio Barba Navaretti, Giacomo Calzolari, Maria Demertzis, Martin Hellwig, Helen Louri and Laura von Daniels Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: July 6, 2017
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Eurozone or EU budget? Confronting a complex political question

This week’s European Commission reflection paper is the latest document to ponder a distinction between EU and euro-area budgets. But do we need to split the two, and what would each budget be used for? In this post, I present an analytical framework for assessing this ultimately political question

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 29, 2017
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Raising the inflation target: a question of robustness

In an unexpected move, the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has recently brought up the issue of raising the inflation target. This blog argues that an increase in inflation targets may prove to be beneficial in achieving price stability in the long run. This would increase the credibility of central banks in achieving inflation goals and stave off the distortionary effects of deflation.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 22, 2017
Read article Download PDF More by this author

Policy Contribution

German Bundestag

Charting the next steps for the EU financial supervisory architecture

The combination of banking union and Brexit justifies a reform of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in the near term, in line with the subsidiarity principle and the accountability of EBA and ESMA and their scrutiny by the European Parliament should be enhanced as a key element of their governance reform.

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, German Bundestag Date: June 7, 2017
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

We need a European Monetary Fund, but how should it work?

Many voices are calling for the ESM to be developed into a fully-fledged European Monetary Fund. But what changes would this entail, and how could the new institution be governed? The authors see both need and hope for change.

By: André Sapir and Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 29, 2017
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

What's next for France and Europe?

We host a conversation between Jean Pisani-Ferry and Guntram Wolff to discuss what the French election result will mean for France and Europe.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 11, 2017
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

EBA relocation should support a long-term ‘twin peaks’ vision

As the Commission launches a review of European financial supervision, the authors argue that Europe needs to move towards a twin peaks model – dividing supervision of prudential and conduct-of-business issues. But this is a long-term vision, and will require institution building. The immediate priorities are to choose a new home for the EBA and reinforce ESMA.

By: Dirk Schoenmaker and Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: April 5, 2017
Load more posts