Opinion

欧洲难民危机将如何演进

欧盟成员国如果重新恢复其边境管控,将会带来严重的经济后果。更严重的后果将是政治性的

By: Date: January 29, 2016 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Disclaimer: This is a Chinese translation produced by People’s Daily based on the article “The fallout from the European refugee crisis”

people's daily

几个月来难民危机一直占据欧洲媒体的头条。据统计,2016年以来,每天仍有高达4000名难民进入欧盟,这将在2016年再带来至少100万难民。

在去年抵达欧洲的150万难民中,超过100万来到了德国,然而最初对他们表示欢迎的氛围已经极大地改变了。德国总理默克尔对难民开放的政策曾受到广泛支持,但不久前在科隆发生的性侵事件使局面发生了转折。最新的民调显示,德国民众对移民的欢迎态度已大幅减弱。去年12月,超过一半的德国人认为德国可以接纳大量的难民,然而这一比例目前已经跌至35%。

德国或许能够应对难民危机带来的财政挑战,但是德国人对难民是否能成功融入德国社会却渐渐失去信心。德国政界的普遍态度是,在2016年只能接受更少的难民。

关于难民危机的发展,我认为有两个可能的方向。一个发展方向是产生一个解决难民危机的“欧洲方案”。德国总理默克尔正在为这样一个方案而努力。方案包含三个关键元素,首先,欧盟的外部边境得到更好的管控。任何进入欧盟的难民必须接受注册手续。其次,减少不合法难民和移民的数量,这需要欧盟邻国,特别是土耳其的大力配合。第三,难民压力应当由全部欧盟国家共同来承担,作为有着5亿人口的欧盟,要比人口只有8000万的德国更容易承担100万难民的压力。

然而,默克尔的方案面临巨大阻碍——管控外部边境就是一件难度极大的任务。作为许多难民登陆的首选地,希腊的公共执法部门力量并不强,并且希腊有着为数众多的、距离土耳其非常近的岛屿。这就为许多难民通过土耳其取道希腊进入欧盟创造了条件。土耳其是欧盟至关重要的邻居,其自身已经接纳了超过200万难民,并且南部边境与战火不断的叙利亚直接接壤。欧盟去年11月和土耳其达成协议,对其提供30亿欧元的经济援助以换取在难民危机上的合作,然而迄今为止收效甚微。

欧盟原本计划将16万难民在成员国中强行摊派安置的方案也遭受阻碍,这不仅有来自各成员国地方政府的阻力,而且因为欧洲缺乏一个整合良好的难民数据库,难民登记工作在技术上和法律上都举步维艰。

关于难民危机的另一个发展方向是,德国开始限制接纳难民,然后引发连锁反应,促使德国和希腊之间的国家一个接一个关闭其边境,进而使无数难民滞留在土耳其或者希腊。无论如何,这个发展方向远不及达成一个“欧洲方案”的结果好。

欧盟成员国如果重新恢复其边境管控,将会带来严重的经济后果。不仅高达170万的欧盟成员国国民会发现其每天往返于不同国家的工作通勤将会变得十分困难,同时欧洲所有依赖于长加工链和中间产品的企业生产将会受到极大的影响。更严重的后果将是政治性的,随着极端民粹主义的政党获得更多的支持,中间派政府将不得不为避免更大分裂和争论而面对更多挑战。


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