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External Publication

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context (2nd report)

The purpose of our report is to provide a comprehensive overview of capital movements in Europe in a global context.

By: , , and Date: January 28, 2016 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

This report analyses capital movements in Europe in a global context. Capital outflows from the EU as a whole declined in recent quarters and there was even a net inflow in 2015Q1, driven by both euro-area and non-euro area countries.

Some emerging countries experienced capital outflows, which are likely related to expectations about tightening monetary policies in the United States. Our econometric results confirm the importance of global factors in driving capital flows to emerging countries, but also show that FDI flows are rather insensitive in contrast to portfolio and other investment flows.

Following a period of more than two decades of large-scale foreign exchange reserve accumulation by primarily emerging-country central banks, reserves started to decline, which is a rather marked trend-change and can lead to interest rate increases in advanced countries and offset the impacts of quantitative easing policies.

At the EU’s border, Ukraine managed to attract some capital in recent months, but Russia continues to display persistent net capital outflows. We report a remarkable similarity between capital flows in central and eastern European member states and euro area periphery countries during the past twelve years.

We analyse the bilateral patterns of capital flows to Greece and Cyprus in the context of their respective crises. Intra-euro area financial integration continues to be lower than it was in the pre-crisis period.Our econometric analysis shows the dis-anchoring of EU countries’ domestic savings and investments in the pre-crisis period, which has reversed in the past six years.

While the euro-area aggregate financial cycle fluctuated rather moderately, a major divergence of domestic financial cycles can be observed within the euro area, which was very much linked to capital flows. The credit cycles for the UK, Denmark and Sweden are found to have been close to the euro-area cycle. We analyse the challenges faced by macro-prudential policy in the euro area and suggest improvements.

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Policy Contribution

Risk reduction through Europe’s distressed debt market

The resolution of non-performing loans (NPLs), a stock of roughly €870 billion in the EU banking industry, is central to the recovery of Europe’s banking sector and the restructuring of the excess debt owed by private sector borrowers. Could the development of distressed debt markets be a new element of capital market deepening in Europe?

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: January 18, 2018
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External Publication

Reconciling risk sharing with market discipline: A constructive approach to euro area reform

This publication, written by a group of independent French and German economists, proposes six reforms which, if delivered as a package, would improve the Eurozone’s financial stability, political cohesion, and potential for delivering prosperity to its citizens, all while addressing the priorities and concerns of participating countries.

By: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Markus K. Brunnermeier, Henrik Enderlein, Emmanuel Farhi, Marcel Fratzscher, Clemens Fuest, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Philippe Martin, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Hélène Rey, Isabel Schnabel, Nicolas Véron, Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 17, 2018
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External Publication

Analysis of development in EU capital flows in the global context

The monitoring and analysis of capital movements is essential for policymakers, given that capital flows can have welfare implications. This report, commissioned by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, aims to analyse capital movements in the European Union in a global context.

By: Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis, Konstantinos Efstathiou, Inês Goncalves Raposo, Pia Hüttl and Alexander Lehmann Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: January 15, 2018
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Opinion

South Korea needs to watch the BOJ rather than the Fed

Due its actual economic structure, South Korea should be more worried about BOJ's extremely lax stance than about monetary policy normalization by the Fed.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: December 14, 2017
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Blog Post

The capital tax cut debate

How much do workers gain from a capital gains tax cut? CEA chairman Hasset claims the tax cut will cause average household labour income to increase by between $4000 and $9000. Several commentators note this implies that more than 100% of the incidence of the tax is on labour. This question has triggered a heated discussion in the economic blogosphere, which we review here.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 30, 2017
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Policy Contribution

German Bundestag

Charting the next steps for the EU financial supervisory architecture

The combination of banking union and Brexit justifies a reform of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) in the near term, in line with the subsidiarity principle and the accountability of EBA and ESMA and their scrutiny by the European Parliament should be enhanced as a key element of their governance reform.

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, German Bundestag Date: June 7, 2017
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Blog Post

EBA relocation should support a long-term ‘twin peaks’ vision

As the Commission launches a review of European financial supervision, the authors argue that Europe needs to move towards a twin peaks model – dividing supervision of prudential and conduct-of-business issues. But this is a long-term vision, and will require institution building. The immediate priorities are to choose a new home for the EBA and reinforce ESMA.

By: Dirk Schoenmaker and Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: April 5, 2017
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Podcast

Podcast

Banks and borrowers in distress — Europe's NPL crisis

European banks are struggling with high amounts of non-performing loans. We look at the reasons behind this crisis, and how it affects banks, borrowers and the European economy as a whole. Finally, we explore potential solutions.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: March 10, 2017
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Working Paper

Institutional investors and home bias in Europe’s Capital Markets Union

Zsolt Darvas and Dirk Schoenmaker find strong support for the hypothesis that the larger the assets managed by institutional investors, the smaller the home bias and thereby the greater the scope for risk sharing.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: March 6, 2017
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Blog Post

Brexit should drive integration of EU capital markets

Brexit offers EU-27 countries a chance to take some of London’s financial services activity. But there is also a risk of market fragmentation, which could lead to less effective supervision and higher borrowing costs. To get the most out of Brexit, the EU financial sector needs a beefed up ESMA.

By: Dirk Schoenmaker and Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: February 24, 2017
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Policy Contribution

Brexit and the European financial system

Brexit will lead to a partial migration of financial firms from London to the EU27. This Policy Contribution provides a comparison between London and four major cities that will host most of the new EU27 wholesale market: Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and Amsterdam. It gives a detailed picture of the wholesale markets, the largest players in these markets and the underlying clearing infrastructure. It also provides data on professional services and innovation.

By: Uuriintuya Batsaikhan, Robert Kalcik and Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: February 9, 2017
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External Publication

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context (3rd annual report)

The purpose of this report is to provide a comprehensive overview of capital movements in Europe in a global context.

By: Zsolt Darvas, Konstantinos Efstathiou, Pia Hüttl and Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 10, 2017
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