Opinion

俄罗斯给欧洲能源安全带来威胁?

俄罗斯不应该被视为欧洲天然气供应安全的威胁。欧洲可以安全地从俄罗斯以低价进口所需天然气的稳定份额,前提是欧洲拥有在这些供应被切断时可以用得上的替代性供应方。真正的天然气供应安全无需想尽一切办法来减少从主要供应国的采购量。

By: Date: February 3, 2016 Topic: Energy & Climate

Disclaimer: This is a Chinese translation produced by Sina based on the article “A new way to approach Europe’s gas security, beyond the usual Russian obsession”.

Sina

欧洲居民依然很容易遭遇又一场天然气危机的伤害,在2006年至2009年俄罗斯切断对乌克兰和欧洲天然气供应的十年之后,情况还是如此。

十年前的这一事件暴露了欧洲能源安全的脆弱,同时引发了提升这方面安全性的需求。
针对这场危机,欧洲领导人计划通过供应的多元化和降低对进口的依赖来减少欧洲对俄罗斯天然气的依存度。但是,这一战略很快被证明代价高昂,同时不足以从系统上化解欧洲能源安全的脆弱。

第一次天然气危机的十年之后,欧洲保证天然气供应安全的方式从某种程度上而言还是没有改变。但是,在能源安全方面欧洲已不能再承受一次“失去的十年”。实际上,由于内部产量的快速下降,欧洲的天然气进口需求在未来数十年将持续增长。

在荷兰,天然气产量已从2010年的700亿立方米到2014年降至560亿立方米的水平,而且这种下降有越来越快之势。英国的天然气产量已从2010年的570亿立方米到2014年降至370亿立方米,这主要与北海的资源储量被快速消耗有关。

根据2015年国际能源署(IEA)的报告,欧盟的天然气进口需求在所有可能的情境下都会增长。这意味着欧洲迫切需要一个新战略从根本上应对整个大陆在天然气供应安全方面的挑战。

俄罗斯(或其他任何重要的供应方)不应该被视为欧洲天然气供应安全的威胁。欧洲可以安全地从俄罗斯以低价进口所需天然气的稳定份额,前提是欧洲拥有在这些供应被切断时可以用得上的替代性供应方。

(声明:本文仅代表作者观点,不代表新浪网立场。)

真正的天然气供应安全无需想尽一切办法来减少从主要供应国的采购量,更有效的保障方式是确保暂不使用的替代性供应方处在可用状态,即在一个主要供应国的来源被切断时,它们能在某段难以确定期限的时间内为欧洲所用。

从国家层面而言,找到替代性供应方具有挑战性,但从整个欧洲层面而言则相对简单。欧洲的天然气进口基础设施目前大部分都没有被完全利用,当前仅有58%的管道和32%的液化天然气设施得到使用。

欧盟成员国的共同行动可能充分利用这些富余的设施,创建一个涵盖欧盟的类似保险的系统,一旦供应中断该系统即可被激活。这可以通过立法要求欧洲所有的天然气进口国和内部生产商都必须保持一定额度的可替代资源处于可用状态来实现,比如1年天然气合约需求的20%,以使欧洲天然气系统更为安全、富有弹性和互联互通。

虽然从技术和经济的角度来说是可行的,但这一选择在政治方面具有挑战性。目前多数的欧盟成员国认为,供应安全问题仅仅是那些高度依赖俄罗斯天然气的中欧和东欧国家的事,比如波兰和波罗的海诸国。
 但是,能源安全实际上事关所有的欧盟成员国,而不仅仅是中欧和东欧国家。欧洲周边地区地缘政治形势的复杂和波动性意味着,其他重要的供应方可能在出乎预料、难以预测的情况下成为欧洲天然气安全的威胁。

例如,传统上安全的挪威等供应国在未来可能不得不减少天然气出口,原因只是因为资源储备的退化。又比如阿尔及利亚,这也是一个传统上安全的供应国,但如果在难以预测的地区性政治动荡冲击下,该国也可能切断供应。因此,天然气供应安全是一件关系到欧盟所有成员国利益的事情。

此外,还存在一种市场状况出现急剧变化的风险,比如在日本福岛核灾难之后液化天然气(LNG)市场出现的那种局面,当时市场对天然气的需求急速飙升。面对这样的情况,一个当前被视为天然气供应安全没有直接威胁的欧盟成员国在未来可能很容易就沦为受害者。

鉴于天然气供应安全天然存在难以预测的特点,加上欧洲能源系统重要性的持续增长,因此有必要用新的战略来保障欧洲天然气供应的安全,摆脱传统上对俄罗斯的高度依赖。

天然气供应的安全应在欧盟层面加以解决,这是因为一个整体解决方案的成本更低,而各国分别应对可能损害到欧洲内部能源市场,对其他国家产生副作用,而且欧盟协定明确要求在能源问题上应保持团结一致。

欧盟天然气供应的安全对确保家庭的供气在寒冷的冬季不中断、对工业的繁荣和欧盟在重大外交政策问题上不被胁迫至关重要。如果欧洲的政策制定者迅速行动来确保能源安全,欧洲和欧洲的民众都将从中获益。(立悟/编译)

(本文作者介绍:位于比利时布鲁塞尔的布鲁塞尔欧洲与全球经济实验室(Bruegel)是近5年来崛起的一家顶级的欧洲智库,主要关注国际经济领域。)

本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用,请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。
(声明:本文仅代表作者观点,不代表新浪网立场。)


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