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Policy Brief

欧元区管理改革:需要解决的问题及途径

By: and Date: February 27, 2016 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Disclaimer: This is a Chinese translation produced by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences based on the paper “Euro-area governance: what to reform and how to do it”.

导言

欧元区在庆祝成立十周年时,受到了金融危机的侵袭。 这场危机始于美国,迅速蔓延至欧洲。在应付这场迫在眉睫的危机以及经多年累积而成的大规模的财政、金融、结构性失衡时,经济及货币联盟(EMU)准备不足。此次金融危机,先是在2010年转化成为希腊主权债务危机,随后在2011-12年间,演化成全面的银行-主权债务危机,并曾一度威胁到货币联盟的生存。现在债务危机已经减弱,但代之而起的是增长微弱、通胀近零的经济危机。这种失去十年的忧虑正在欧元区回荡,但各国政府对此却反应迟缓[1]

欧元区的两大特征对此次危机的产生和其后解决上的困难有着特殊的负面影响:各成员国间[2]经济(及政治、社会的)差异巨大,导致了某些情况下政策的失效,再有,欧元区的经济管理体制也不足。对这种管理的改革,需在三大领域进行。

首先,虽然欧元区的整合已达相当程度,但欧盟银行和金融体系是在没有相应的监管和清盘结构下运作的。银行业联盟及各种宏观审慎措施构成了主要的制度性因应措施,尽管这些因应措施仍需在适当时候予以改进,但这已超出这一期《政策概要》的讨论范围。其次,在既无标称汇率、又无彻底融合的劳力市场的情况下,欧元区需要有一种体系来防止成员国之间单位劳动力成本(ULC)的过度分化。第三,欧元区需要有一个财政管理体系以便(1)确保各成员国的财政可持续性,(2)制定全区的财政政策立场,(3)在发生银行和主权危机时,快速提供财政资源、及时解决问题。我们就第二点和第三点[3]提出中期管理改革的建议,并以讨论目前最为紧迫的短期挑战为本文作结。

[1]见Mark Carney (2015)讲话,“命运眷顾无畏者”,纪念Hon. James Michael Flaherty, P.C., Iveagh协会,都柏林,2015年1月。欧洲央行近期措施值得欢迎,但不足以避免失去的十年。

[2] Sapir(2005),“全球化与欧洲社会模式的改革政策”,见《Bruegel 2005年政策意见书》   总体政策自满和极大的节制是导致失衡的其他因素。

[3]随着银行业联盟的创建可各种系统风险机构的设立,资金流动和银行脆弱性的第一个政策挑战已经解决。 管理结构已经建立,但仍需改进。

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