Opinion

结构改革重中之重

结构性改革的讨论不应只停留在各国各不相同的改革事项,而应聚焦于全球性的收入分配问题和增强金融系统的韧性和多样性上

By: Date: March 11, 2016 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Disclaimer: This is a Chinese translation produced by Caixin based on the article “The G20’s structural reform agenda should address income gap and financial system fragility”.

caixin

在G20上海峰会上,各国财长和央行行长们似乎意识到结构性改革的重要性。这突出表现在笔者主持的、中国财政部部长楼继伟等人参与讨论的结构性改革高级别研讨会中,大家都认为经合组织(OECD)针对税基侵蚀和利润转移(BEPS)的研究是防止避税、确保征税在经济活动发生地发生的关键。

而针对各国的改革,多个国家的财长都对各国正在推动的一些结构性改革举措进行了陈述。然而,与以往一样,进展都较人们希望看到的更为有限。欧洲去年的经历就是个例子。尽管出现了很多强调解决结构性问题紧迫性的言论,但是,很多欧盟核心成员国几乎都没有采取任何货真价实的改革举措。相反,受金融援助和处于市场压力下的国家,反而有不少进行了改革,当然他们推进改革的速度也不尽相同。

在全球需求疲弱的环境下,G20国家应该尽快推行潜在能促进投资的改革。尽管在我看来支撑性的宏观经济政策有利于这些改革的实施,但是一些国家的财长认为,支持性的宏观经济政策会削弱推进改革的积极性。

我认为,关于结构性改革的讨论必须不只停留在各国各不相同的改革事项,而应聚焦于全球性的收入分配问题以及增强金融系统的韧性和多样性。这应该是中国在今年担任G20主席国期间推动讨论的重中之重。

传统宏观经济政策虽然对稳定全球经济十分重要,但已不足以解决目前经济环境的脆弱性和低增长问题。这些政策无法可持续地解决需求持续疲软的问题,更不用说驱动各国经济生产率的提高。

和八年前全球金融危机爆发之时相比,这些传统经济政策的效力更为有限。很多主要经济体已采用了“零利率下限”的货币政策,利率几乎不能再降。财政政策空间也比危机之前更小。事实上,发达经济体的主权债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比已经从70%上升到100%以上。尽管包括德国在内的一些国家仍可以用财政政策来促进必要的基础设施领域公共投资,以拉动经济增长,但是,对很多国家来说,由于财政空间有限,这种政策并不是可选项之一。

此时,我们应该研究一下造成全球需求持续疲软、贸易及经济增长放缓的深层根本原因是什么。首先是收入分配问题。全球范围内,劳动收入占国民收入的比重持续下滑,这意味着生产率的提高并不会带来工人工资的上涨,而是更多流向了资本所有者。例如,美国企业部门劳动收入占比从上世纪70年代的65%以上,下降至几年前的不到60%,日本、中国和德国也出现了类似的下滑趋势。GDP增长的大部分收益都落入最富裕的5%家庭口袋中。

其次是金融体系结构问题。近期一些学术研究表明,银行体系相对股市和私人债券市场规模更大的国家,往往与更高的系统性风险、更低的增速联系在一起,尤其是在房地产市场危机时期。因此,为资本市场的发展提供适宜的结构性条件,以及适度监管整个金融体系,是保证经济增长和稳定的关键,对欧洲国家和中国来说,尤其如此。

虽然一些人认为,结构性改革在低通胀环境下可能会带来通缩的风险,但恰当的改革举措能够带来积极的影响。事实上,一些改革对推动投资立竿见影。例如,在希腊建立合适的土地登记制、放开道路交通管制、提高司法体系效率、升级教育基础设施、融合并深化各金融市场等,都能对通胀和需求产生积极影响。推行能带来生产率提高的改革,也会促进投资。尽管很多必要的改革举措因各国国情不同而不尽相同,但一些大的结构改革议题与所有G20国家都息息相关。各国应该联合开展一些具体领域的倡议和改革努力,或者互相学习他国的最优实践。

要解决全球需求疲弱的深层次诱因,G20国家的领导人将必须考虑收入分配和金融体系结构等根本性问题


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