Opinion

市场与公投承诺不可兼得

未来几个月市场的动荡还将持续,直到英国与欧盟关系的条款最终敲定。英国与欧盟保持密切关联的政治可能性越高,市场反应将会越积极。相反,如果英国采取孤立主义,以及欧洲大陆的惩罚性情绪越高,那么英国和欧盟的股市下跌将会越严重。

By: Date: July 6, 2016 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Disclaimer: This is a Chinese translation produced by Sina based on the article “Markets and broken promises in the UK referendum

Sina

在英国退欧前景造成市场剧烈动荡四天之后,市场止跌并有所走强。到底发生了什么?

在6月23日公投结果出来之后,全球金融市场剧烈跳水。英镑跌幅超过10%,英国股市下跌7%。与此同时,整个欧洲的金融机构尤其是英国的均出现暴跌。
 经济学家们从未如此意见一致

这一反应与经济学家们的预测相符。经济学家们从未如此意见一致。大部分经济学家认为脱离欧盟单一市场将对英国和欧盟经济造成负面影响,可能在短期内造成衰退并降低长期GDP水平。

经济学家还一致认为,对英国长期GDP水平的影响很大程度上要看英国与欧盟以及其他贸易伙伴达成的协议条款。

到目前为止市场的反应与经济学理论相符,即贸易壁垒的增加将造成经济活动放缓,进而造成股市估值下降。

那么今天市场为何出现回升?在这种动荡环境下,显然我们很难用一个明确和单一的原因来解释股市和外汇市场的复苏。毫无疑问,一个角度是英国政治动荡的程度,以及市场对政治环境改善和组建新政府的预期。

市场复苏也反映了英国政治方向的明确转变

在我看来,市场复苏也是英国政治方向明确转变的结果。
(声明:本文仅代表作者观点,不代表新浪网立场。)

详述如下:

许多投票支持退欧的人都抱着两个假设:退出欧盟之后将会减少来自欧盟的移民、英国将不会寻求进入欧盟单一市场并打碎“欧盟成员的镣铐”。

然而这两个命题周一都被退欧阵营的Boris Johnson和Michael Gove否定了。现在Boris Johnson在谈论继续英国继续作为欧洲的一部分,寻求进入欧盟单一市场。与此同时,其他人也指出,留在欧盟之外不必然意味着限制来自欧盟的劳动力自由流动。
 现在媒体报道认为,英国最实际的选项是效法挪威。

现在媒体报道认为,英国最实际的选项就是效法挪威。我们别忘了,挪威是欧盟单一市场的完整成员:全面的劳动力流动,全面接受欧盟监管、欧盟竞争政策、欧盟对单一市场事务的裁断以及几乎全额支付欧盟预算。

事实上,挪威在经济层面上基本上是一个完全的欧盟成员国,但欧盟监管并未正式影响到其主权。相比离开单一市场,这一选择对英国和欧盟经济的确是非常不错的。但它将会打破公投期间做出的承诺,相比英国作为欧盟成员,将会弱化而非增强英国的主权。《金融时报》的Gideon Rachmann提出另外一个选项,那就是英国可能最后不会离开欧盟。

未来几个月市场的动荡还将持续,直到英国与欧盟关系的条款最终敲定。

这种情形告诉我们,未来几个月市场的动荡还将持续,直到英国与欧盟关系的条款最终敲定。英国与欧盟保持密切关联的政治可能性越高,市场反应将会越积极。相反,如果英国采取孤立主义,以及欧洲大陆的惩罚性情绪越高,那么英国和欧盟的股市下跌将会越严重。

这揭示了一条基本的经济学真理:你不可能同时拥有一块蛋糕同时又吃掉它,尽管你自己如此宣称。但这一经济学真理带来了一个政治困境:要么在经济上受损,要么违背选举的承诺。公投前被推销的一些选择现在的确成了政治两难。

(本文作者介绍:位于比利时布鲁塞尔的布鲁塞尔欧洲与全球经济实验室(Bruegel)是近5年来崛起的一家顶级的欧洲智库,主要关注国际经济领域。)

本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用,请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。
(声明:本文仅代表作者观点,不代表新浪网立场。)


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