Opinion

市场与公投承诺不可兼得

未来几个月市场的动荡还将持续,直到英国与欧盟关系的条款最终敲定。英国与欧盟保持密切关联的政治可能性越高,市场反应将会越积极。相反,如果英国采取孤立主义,以及欧洲大陆的惩罚性情绪越高,那么英国和欧盟的股市下跌将会越严重。

By: Date: July 6, 2016 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Disclaimer: This is a Chinese translation produced by Sina based on the article “Markets and broken promises in the UK referendum

Sina

在英国退欧前景造成市场剧烈动荡四天之后,市场止跌并有所走强。到底发生了什么?

在6月23日公投结果出来之后,全球金融市场剧烈跳水。英镑跌幅超过10%,英国股市下跌7%。与此同时,整个欧洲的金融机构尤其是英国的均出现暴跌。
 经济学家们从未如此意见一致

这一反应与经济学家们的预测相符。经济学家们从未如此意见一致。大部分经济学家认为脱离欧盟单一市场将对英国和欧盟经济造成负面影响,可能在短期内造成衰退并降低长期GDP水平。

经济学家还一致认为,对英国长期GDP水平的影响很大程度上要看英国与欧盟以及其他贸易伙伴达成的协议条款。

到目前为止市场的反应与经济学理论相符,即贸易壁垒的增加将造成经济活动放缓,进而造成股市估值下降。

那么今天市场为何出现回升?在这种动荡环境下,显然我们很难用一个明确和单一的原因来解释股市和外汇市场的复苏。毫无疑问,一个角度是英国政治动荡的程度,以及市场对政治环境改善和组建新政府的预期。

市场复苏也反映了英国政治方向的明确转变

在我看来,市场复苏也是英国政治方向明确转变的结果。
(声明:本文仅代表作者观点,不代表新浪网立场。)

详述如下:

许多投票支持退欧的人都抱着两个假设:退出欧盟之后将会减少来自欧盟的移民、英国将不会寻求进入欧盟单一市场并打碎“欧盟成员的镣铐”。

然而这两个命题周一都被退欧阵营的Boris Johnson和Michael Gove否定了。现在Boris Johnson在谈论继续英国继续作为欧洲的一部分,寻求进入欧盟单一市场。与此同时,其他人也指出,留在欧盟之外不必然意味着限制来自欧盟的劳动力自由流动。
 现在媒体报道认为,英国最实际的选项是效法挪威。

现在媒体报道认为,英国最实际的选项就是效法挪威。我们别忘了,挪威是欧盟单一市场的完整成员:全面的劳动力流动,全面接受欧盟监管、欧盟竞争政策、欧盟对单一市场事务的裁断以及几乎全额支付欧盟预算。

事实上,挪威在经济层面上基本上是一个完全的欧盟成员国,但欧盟监管并未正式影响到其主权。相比离开单一市场,这一选择对英国和欧盟经济的确是非常不错的。但它将会打破公投期间做出的承诺,相比英国作为欧盟成员,将会弱化而非增强英国的主权。《金融时报》的Gideon Rachmann提出另外一个选项,那就是英国可能最后不会离开欧盟。

未来几个月市场的动荡还将持续,直到英国与欧盟关系的条款最终敲定。

这种情形告诉我们,未来几个月市场的动荡还将持续,直到英国与欧盟关系的条款最终敲定。英国与欧盟保持密切关联的政治可能性越高,市场反应将会越积极。相反,如果英国采取孤立主义,以及欧洲大陆的惩罚性情绪越高,那么英国和欧盟的股市下跌将会越严重。

这揭示了一条基本的经济学真理:你不可能同时拥有一块蛋糕同时又吃掉它,尽管你自己如此宣称。但这一经济学真理带来了一个政治困境:要么在经济上受损,要么违背选举的承诺。公投前被推销的一些选择现在的确成了政治两难。

(本文作者介绍:位于比利时布鲁塞尔的布鲁塞尔欧洲与全球经济实验室(Bruegel)是近5年来崛起的一家顶级的欧洲智库,主要关注国际经济领域。)

本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用,请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。
(声明:本文仅代表作者观点,不代表新浪网立场。)


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint.

Due to copyright agreements we ask that you kindly email request to republish opinions that have appeared in print to communication@bruegel.org.

View comments
Read article Download PDF More by this author

Policy Contribution

Dutch Senate

Europe’s fourfold union: Updating the 2012 vision

In the past half-decade, Europe’s financial union has been significantly strengthened but remains incomplete and is challenged by Brexit. No consensus has been found on fiscal union, and the existing fiscal framework based on administrative control is problematic. Economic union has not made material progress. Political union might have advanced further than many observers realise. This four-part categorisation remains relevant and useful when assessing current and future challenges to European integration.

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: Dutch Senate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Testimonies Date: September 19, 2017
Read about event

Upcoming Event

Sep
28
12:30

Unfinished business: The unexplored causes of the financial crisis and the lessons yet to be learned

At this event Tamim Bayoumi will present his upcoming book on the financial crisis, showing how the Euro crisis and U.S. housing crash were, in fact, parasitically intertwined.

Speakers: Tamim Bayoumi, Maria Demertzis and Aerdt Houben Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article

Blog Post

How has banking union changed mergers and acquisitions?

The aim of the banking union was to break the toxic link between banks and states. One way of achieving this is by increasing cross border banking through mergers and acquisitions. This blog shows that little has changed in M&A activity since the banking union was launched. In fact, we seem to be witnessing a slight re-nationalisiation of banking consolidation.

By: Inês Goncalves Raposo and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: September 13, 2017
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Sep
21
12:30

Europe's trust deficit

This event seeks to discuss the rise of populism in Europe and the economic, security, and identity concerns behind the movement.

Speakers: Maria Demertzis, Giuseppe Porcaro, André Sapir and Guido Tabellini Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Speech by Peter Kažimír at Bruegel Annual Dinner 2017

Peter Kažimír, Slovakia Finance Minister, delivered the keynote speech at Bruegel's Annual Dinner 2017, held on 7 September 2017.

By: Peter Kažimír Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 7, 2017
Read about event

Past Event

Past Event

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2017

The Annual Meetings are Bruegel’s flagship event. They offer a mixture of large public debates and small private sessions about key issues in European and global economics. In a series of high-level discussions, Bruegel’s scholars, members and stakeholders will address the economic policy challenges facing Europe.

Speakers: Carlos Sallé Alonso, José Antonio Álvarez Álvarez, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Pervenche Béres, Matthias Buck, Grégory Claeys, Zsolt Darvas, Jean Luc Demarty, Maria Demertzis, Anna Ekström, Lowri Evans, Ferdinando Giugliano, Sandro Gozi, Peter Grünenfelder, Reiner Hoffmann, Levin Holle, Kate Kalutkiewicz, Steffen Kampeter, Peter Kažimír, Emmanuel Lagarrigue, Matti Maasikas, Steven Maijoor, Reza Moghadam, Nathalie Moll, James Murray, Johan Van Overtveldt, Julia Reinaud, André Sapir, Dirk Schoenmaker, Mateusz Szczurek, Marianne Thyssen, Jean-Claude Trichet, Reinhilde Veugelers, Nicolas Véron, Ida Wolden Bache, Liviu Voinea, Guntram B. Wolff and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Square - Brussels Meeting Centre Date: September 7, 2017
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

EU posted workers: separating fact and fiction

After President Macron’s recent tour of Central and Eastern European countries, EU posted workers are getting a lot of attention. However, a major reform of the system is already underway and we should not confuse posted workers with long-term labour migrants. Posted workers are a small part of the labour force, and their labour market impact is likely to be minor.

By: Uuriintuya Batsaikhan Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: August 31, 2017
Read article Download PDF More by this author

Parliamentary Testimony

European Parliament

Could revising the posted workers directive improve social conditions?

This presentation was delivered in Brussels on 31 January 2017 at a hearing of think-tanks, to advise the European Parliament on the revision of the Posting of Workers Directive.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: August 29, 2017
Read article More on this topic

Opinion

Europe must seize this moment of opportunity

As the EU enjoys a period of growth and relative stability, there is finally room to undertake long-needed reforms. But it is vital to act soon, and priorities must be set. There are three pillars of reform for the coming months: completing a robust euro area; building a coherent EU foreign policy; and harnessing the single market’s potential to deliver strong and inclusive growth.

By: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Michael Hüther, Philippe Martin and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: August 12, 2017
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Italian economic growth and the Euro

While the Euro has frequently been blamed for the poor growth performance of Italy over the years, a long-term analysis shows deteriorating growth before the introduction of the Euro. Additionally, Italy has shown worse performance than other euro-periphery countries, such as Spain, implying deeper structural reasons for Italy’s economic malaise.

By: Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 26, 2017
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

The international effects of ECB’s monetary policy

What’s at stake: the literature on monetary policy spillovers is abundant of studies investigating the impact of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcements and actions on emerging market economies. More recently, economists have been investigating the effect of the ECB’s credit easing as well.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 24, 2017
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Perspectives on Universal Basic Income

At this event, we discussed the possible benefits but also the possible disadvantages of Universal Basic Income.

Speakers: Grégory Claeys, Olli Kangas, Professor Philippe Van Parijs and Prof. Dr. Hilmar Schneider Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: July 12, 2017
Load more posts