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Policy Contribution

Low long-term rates: bond bubble or symptom of secular stagnation?

Yields on European sovereign bonds have reached historically low levels in 2016. This secular decline in long-term sovereign yields is not limited to the euro area. Why are interest rates currently so low? Are low long-term trates justified by fundamental factors or is it an artificial phenomenon?

By: Date: September 26, 2016 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Yields on European sovereign bonds have reached historically low levels in 2016. The goals of this paper are to understand why interest rates are currently so low and to determine if this level is justified by fundamental factors, or if rates are artificially low because of unconventional monetary policies.

The decline in yields over the last 30 years is the result of various factors: the fall in inflation, lower risk premia in European countries, and most importantly the fall in the real interest rate driven by a secular decline in the ‘neutral’ rate.

Consequently, central banks are not fully responsible for the actual level of long-term real rates, because they adopt, to fulfil their price stability mandates, the necessary policies to influence market rates in order to make them consistent with neutral rates, over which they have little influence.

Low rates are the symptoms of our diseases, not their cause. It is therefore crucial to tackle the structural causes behind the fall in long-term rates, but also to find solutions for the harmful consequences that lower equilibrium rates could have for the conduct of monetary policy.

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Blog Post

Germany’s savings banks: uniquely intertwined with local politics

German savings banks, known as Sparkassen, form an important feature of the country's banking assets. Unlike in other European countries, German Sparkassen also hold direct links with local political communities. This post focuses on the Sparkassen's structural links and relationships with elected politicians. Three findings which do not appear to have been specifically documented previously stand out.

By: Jonas Markgraf and Nicolas Véron Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: July 18, 2018
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Policy Contribution

Cryptocurrencies and monetary policy

Can cryptocurrencies acquire the role of money? And what are the implications for central banks and monetary policy? Read the policy contribution to understand what challenges cryptocurrencies have to overcome to replace official currencies.

By: Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis and Konstantinos Efstathiou Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: June 28, 2018
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Blog Post

Is the ECB collateral framework compromising the safe-asset status of euro-area sovereign bonds?

Central banks’ collateral frameworks play an important role in defining what is considered as a safe asset. However, the ECB’s framework is unsatisfactory because it is overly reliant on pro-cyclical ratings from credit rating agencies, and because the differences in haircuts between the different ECB credit quality steps are not sufficiently gradual. In this note, the authors propose how the ECB could solve these problems and improve its collateral framework to protect its balance sheet without putting at risk the safe status of sovereign bonds of the euro area.

By: Grégory Claeys and Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 8, 2018
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Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: Central banking and the problem of unelected power

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff discusses current tensions in central banking governance with Paul Tucker, former deputy governor of the Bank of England and author of the newly released book 'Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State'.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: June 5, 2018
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Past Event

Past Event

News from the South. Proposal to strengthen the European Monetary Union: Combining fiscal discipline with risk sharing

On 4 June Bruegel, as in previous years, will host the presentation of the Euro Yearbook, a collection of experts’ insights on the construction of the European Monetary Union through 2017.

Speakers: Cristina Cabrera, Maria Demertzis, Fernando Fernandez, Massimo Giuliodori, Javier Méndez Llera and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: June 4, 2018
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Past Event

Past Event

Unelected Power: the quest for legitimacy in central banking and the regulatory state

We are pleased to host the presentation of Paul Tucker's latest book.

Speakers: Maria Demertzis, Joanne Kellermann, Jean Pisani-Ferry and Paul Tucker Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 31, 2018
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External Publication

The changing fortunes of central banking

What are the major challenges of central banks today? This book discusses the developing role of central banks and the policies they pursue in seeking monetary and financial stabilisation, while also giving suggestions for model strategies.

By: Philipp Hartmann, Haizhou Huang and Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: May 29, 2018
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Blog Post

Are SBBS really the safe asset the euro area is looking for?

The European Commission is pushing to create a synthetic euro-area-wide safe asset in the form of sovereign bond-backed securities (SBBS). However, SBBS do not fully fulfil their original promises. If introduced on a massive scale, they might increase the supply of safe assets in good times and loosen the link between sovereigns and banks. But they will not give governments a means to maintain market access during crises, they might change incentives for governments to default, and they could pose a problem to individual bonds not included in SBBS if, in the end, they are put at a regulatory advantage vis-à-vis individual bonds.

By: Grégory Claeys Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: May 28, 2018
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Blog Post

The effects of Brexit on UK growth and inflation

The full consequences of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union were never going to be immediately perceptible. As we approach the second anniversary of the UK’s Brexit referendum, we can compare the subsequent economic data for the UK and the euro area and see how it diverges from the trends established before the vote.

By: Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 23, 2018
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External Publication

Central banking in turbulent times

Central banks came out of the Great Recession with increased power and responsibilities. Indeed, central banks are often now seen as 'the only game in town', and a place to put innumerable problems vastly exceeding their traditional remit. These new powers do not fit well, however, with the independence of central banks, remote from the democratic control of government.

By: Francesco Papadia and Tuomas Valimaki Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: May 22, 2018
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Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: Post-crisis prognosis for macroeconomics

The global financial crisis prompted the field of macroeconomics to rethink its methods. In this Director's Cut of 'The Sound of Economics', Bruegel deputy director Maria Demertzis addresses the changes made and the problems still unresolved, in conversation with Nicola Viegi, South African Reserve Bank professor of monetary economics at the University of Pretoria, and Frank Smets, director general of economics at the European Central Bank.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 15, 2018
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Opinion

The upheaval Italy needs

While Italy remains without a new government, it would be foolish to believe that a country where anti-system parties won 55% of the popular vote will continue to behave as if nothing had happened. But political upheavals sometime provide a unique opportunity for addressing seemingly intractable problems. After its political upheaval, Italy now needs an economic one.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: April 30, 2018
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