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External Publication

Currency crises in post-Soviet economies — a never ending story?

This paper offers an updated and comprehensive analysis of the currency crises in Russia and the former Soviet Union economies.

By: Date: October 18, 2016 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

This paper is published in the Russian Journal of EconomicsVolume 2, Issue 3, September 2016, Pages 302–326.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, its successor states have suffered from cyclical currency crises. The most recent episode of 2014–2016 was caused by a combination of external and domestic factors.

The former include tighter US monetary policy, slower global growth, and declining commodity prices, whereas the latter include the former Soviet Union (FSU) economies’ extreme macroeconomic fragility (a legacy of past crises), numerous microeconomic rigidities and structural distortions in addition to governmental deficits.

In addition, the Russian–Ukraine conflict dealt a heavy blow to both economies and their neighbors. Effective anti-crisis policies must aim at eliminating all deep-rooted causes of repeated financial and macroeconomic turbulence and must involve deep structural and institutional reforms in the entire region.

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Opinion

Nord Stream 2 means gains for Germany but pain for Europe

The proposed Nord Stream 2 pipeline could destabilise European energy cooperation and offer Gazprom excessive influence in Central and Eastern Europe. These disadvantages do not justify the commercial benefits for German companies.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: June 23, 2017
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Opinion

Nord Stream 2 can wait

Gazprom is pushing ahead with plans to build a second gas pipeline under the Baltic sea, straight form Russia to Germany. Supporters claim that Ukraine cannot be relied on as a transit partner, and that Europe will need more gas in the future. Georg Zachmann is unconvinced, and argues that the project should wait.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: June 13, 2017
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Policy Contribution

Central Asia at 25

After a decade of growth based on hydrocarbon booms, Central Asian countries are faced with increasing challenges to complete their transitions to a market economy and towards economic development and integration.

By: Uuriintuya Batsaikhan and Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 5, 2017
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Blog Post

Who would bet on currency unions after EMU crisis?

The European Monetary Union (EMU) was founded with the idea that nominal convergence would bring real convergence, but structural differences between members have proven wide enough to generate lasting asymmetric negative shocks across the euro area.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and David Martínez Turégano Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 29, 2017
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External Publication

Collapse of the Ruble zone and its lessons

This essay, published by CESifo, aims to summarise the experiences of the two monetary disintegration episodes, i.e. termination of settlements in TR since 1 January 1991 and the gradual collapse of the Soviet ruble area in 1990–1993.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 15, 2017
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Blog Post

Demonetisation: India’s stress test

What were the reasons for the Indian government's sudden decision to remove 86% of hard currency from circulation? Will Modi's monetary intervention achieve its stated aim of fighting corruption? And what will be the wider implications for growth?

By: Suman Bery Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: January 30, 2017
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Blog Post

Challenges to debt sustainability in advanced economies

The gross general government debt-to-GDP ratios in many advanced economies have reached the highest levels in peacetime history and continue to grow, putting into question sovereign solvency in these economies.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 8, 2016
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Policy Contribution

Are advanced economies at risk of falling into debt traps?

One of the consequences of the global financial crisis has been rapid growth in public debt in most advanced economies. This Policy Contribution assesses the size of public debt in advanced economies and considers the potential consequences of sovereign insolvency.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 10, 2016
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Blog Post

Brexit, the pound and the UK current account

What’s at stake: UK PM Theresa May announced the intention to trigger article 50 by March 2017, the Pound Sterling crashed, and a dispute among Tesco and Unilever has resulted in Marmite shortage. Brexit means Brexit, and it continues to be highly discussed. It would be impossible to summarise all the economic blogosphere on Brexit. Our aim is to periodically update our readers on selected important aspects of what promises to be a long-lived topic of discussion. This time we are looking at economists’ view on the Pound crash and the UK current account.

By: Silvia Merler Date: October 17, 2016
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Opinion

The yuan's SDR entry is more symbolism than substance

The yuan's official entry into the International Monetary Fund's basket of reserve currencies on Oct. 1 raised expectations that central banks all over the world would be scrambling to stock up on Chinese money. But the reality is far from that.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 7, 2016
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Opinion

Nord Stream 2: a bad deal for Germany and Eastern Europe

Georg Zachmann argues that the Nord Stream 2 project is a danger to the European consensus on relations with Russia. What is more, it could undermine efforts to diversify Europe's gas supply and might risk higher prices for Eastern Europe.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: July 18, 2016
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Working Paper

The China-Russia trade relationship and its impact on Europe

This paper analyses empirically how increasingly close trade relations between China and Russia might affect the European Union.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 14, 2016
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