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External Publication

Currency crises in post-Soviet economies — a never ending story?

This paper offers an updated and comprehensive analysis of the currency crises in Russia and the former Soviet Union economies.

By: Date: October 18, 2016 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

This paper is published in the Russian Journal of EconomicsVolume 2, Issue 3, September 2016, Pages 302–326.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, its successor states have suffered from cyclical currency crises. The most recent episode of 2014–2016 was caused by a combination of external and domestic factors.

The former include tighter US monetary policy, slower global growth, and declining commodity prices, whereas the latter include the former Soviet Union (FSU) economies’ extreme macroeconomic fragility (a legacy of past crises), numerous microeconomic rigidities and structural distortions in addition to governmental deficits.

In addition, the Russian–Ukraine conflict dealt a heavy blow to both economies and their neighbors. Effective anti-crisis policies must aim at eliminating all deep-rooted causes of repeated financial and macroeconomic turbulence and must involve deep structural and institutional reforms in the entire region.

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Blog Post

The Bitcoin Bubble

The price of bitcoin has just passed $11,000. A year ago it was worth less than $800. Economists and commentators are thus increasingly concerned that this may be a bubble waiting to burst. We review recent opinions on the topic.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: December 4, 2017
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External Publication

Central Asia—twenty-five years after the breakup of the USSR

Central Asia consists of five culturally and ethnically diverse countries that have followed different paths to political and economic transformation in the past 25 years. The main policy challenge for the five Central Asian economies is to move away from commodity-based growth strategies to market-oriented diversification and adoption of a broad spectrum of economic, institutional and political reforms

By: Marek Dabrowski and Uuriintuya Batsaikhan Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: November 14, 2017
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Blog Post

Falling Pound might not bring UK trade balance boost

The Pound Sterling depreciated by 14% against a basket of world currencies in the four months after the referendum vote to leave the EU. A number of pundits claimed that this would improve the UK trade balance and boost the economy. But the data do not show any visible improvement in the trade balance to date. Could it be that currency depreciations have less impact on trade balances than before?

By: Nicholas Branigan Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 31, 2017
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Blog Post

Ukraine’s oligarchs are bad for democracy and economic reform

Ukraine’s late and incomplete economic reform created a class of super-wealthy oligarchs who now stand in the way of further liberalisation. The oligarchs’ oversized influence only deepens public distrust in a structurally weak political system. Nevertheless, Ukraine is making some attempts to uproot corruption and the next steps are clear.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 3, 2017
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Policy Contribution

Ukraine’s unfinished reform agenda

This Policy Contribution analyses the Ukrainian economic, institutional and political reforms of 2014-17 in terms of their sustainability and completeness, and evaluates what remains to be done. Compared to previous attempts, the current reform round has proved more successful and some politically difficult decisions have been taken (for example, the elimination of gas subsidies), but it remains incomplete in many important areas

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 27, 2017
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Opinion

Hong Kong should add the euro to its dollar peg

Volatility offers an opportunity for the territory to rethink its strategy. With the economy now more synchronised with China than ever before, the dollar peg may no longer provide an accurate reflection of the real value of the Hong Kong dollar.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 12, 2017
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Blog Post

Cryptoeconomics – the opportunities and challenges of blockchain

While the activities using the peer-to-peer cryptocurrency Bitcoin swing between legal and illegal, the attention has been increasingly shifting to the technology underlying Bitcoin, known as blockchain. The mechanics and economics of Bitcoin have been reviewed in a previous Bruegel blogpost. In this blog review we explain, or at least attempt to, what blockchain is and whether it contains the extraordinary innovation potential that its proponents believe it to have, or perhaps such hype is oversold.

By: Uuriintuya Batsaikhan Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: July 3, 2017
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Opinion

Nord Stream 2 means gains for Germany but pain for Europe

The proposed Nord Stream 2 pipeline could destabilise European energy cooperation and offer Gazprom excessive influence in Central and Eastern Europe. These disadvantages do not justify the commercial benefits for German companies.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: June 23, 2017
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Opinion

Nord Stream 2 can wait

Gazprom is pushing ahead with plans to build a second gas pipeline under the Baltic sea, straight form Russia to Germany. Supporters claim that Ukraine cannot be relied on as a transit partner, and that Europe will need more gas in the future. Georg Zachmann is unconvinced, and argues that the project should wait.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: June 13, 2017
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Policy Contribution

Central Asia at 25

After a decade of growth based on hydrocarbon booms, Central Asian countries are faced with increasing challenges to complete their transitions to a market economy and towards economic development and integration.

By: Uuriintuya Batsaikhan and Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 5, 2017
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Blog Post

Who would bet on currency unions after EMU crisis?

The European Monetary Union (EMU) was founded with the idea that nominal convergence would bring real convergence, but structural differences between members have proven wide enough to generate lasting asymmetric negative shocks across the euro area.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and David Martínez Turégano Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 29, 2017
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External Publication

Collapse of the Ruble zone and its lessons

This essay, published by CESifo, aims to summarise the experiences of the two monetary disintegration episodes, i.e. termination of settlements in TR since 1 January 1991 and the gradual collapse of the Soviet ruble area in 1990–1993.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 15, 2017
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