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“一带一路”战略如何促进中欧贸易?

 2013年9月中国习近平主席提出“一带一路”重大倡议,得到国际社会的高度关注。虽然各界对于“一带一路”倡议的最终目标的解释层出不穷,但有一点是毋庸置疑的,那就是通过基础设施升级和贸易便利化,来加强地区间和国际间的连接性,这个巨大的地理区域涵盖了超过60个国家,约占世界人口比重的60%和全球GDP总量的30%。

By: and Date: November 16, 2016 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

这项宏伟工程的核心是强化两大重要路线的连接性,即陆路和海陆。在陆路方面,重点是能源和交通基础设施建设;在海路方面,重点是港口和新贸易航线的投资。事实上,陆运线路的终点就在欧洲,海运是目前欧洲和中国的贸易往来中最重要的方式,因此“一带一路”倡议通过大量的基础设施投资,畅通了跨境运输的瓶颈路段,会给处在“一带一路”另一端的欧洲包括欧盟国家带来重大影响。连接性的提高具有诸多好处,其中最先受惠的就是贸易。

在Alicia和徐建炜(2016)的一份研究中[1],我们阐释了“一带一路”倡议如何通过显著降低运输成本来促进贸易发展。研究结果表明,运输成本的下降的确可以促进相关国家的国际贸易发展。虽然目前“一带一路”倡议主要以建设基础设施为中心,但也有可能演变为其他方式。例如就贸易而言,最简单的方式就是消除贸易壁垒。事实上,中国政府已经开始考虑与“一带一路”国家签订自由贸易协定。由于大多数欧盟国家并不直接包含在此倡议中,它们只可能联合起来反对中国与全部欧盟国家的自由贸易协定,因此欧盟从自由贸易协定中获益的机会十分渺茫。研究通过比较“一带一路”战略实施基础设施投资和关税减免对欧洲的影响,发现后者的吸引力要小得多。总言之,如果不能及时参与中国的“一带一路”战略,欧盟将错失与中国合作强化基础设施建设的机会,结果是有可能从一个巨大的贸易区域中被剥离出来。

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