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Fundamental uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy: an info-gap approach

This paper applies the info-gap approach to the unconventional monetary policy of the Eurosystem and so takes into account the fundamental uncertainty on inflation shocks and the transmission mechanism.

By: , and Date: February 28, 2017 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

This paper applies the info-gap approach to the unconventional monetary policy of the Eurosystem and so takes into account the fundamental uncertainty on inflation shocks and the transmission mechanism. The outcomes show that a more demanding monetary strategy, in terms of lower tolerance for output and inflation gaps, entails less robustness against uncertainty, particularly if financial variables are taken into account.

Augmenting the Taylor rule with a financial variable leads to a smaller loss of robustness than taking into account the effect of financial imbalances on the economy. However, in some situations, the augmented model is more robust than the baseline model. A conclusion from our framework is that including financial imbalances in the monetary policy objective does not necessarily increase policy robustness, and may even decrease it.

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Podcast

Podcast

What's next for France and Europe?

We host a conversation between Jean Pisani-Ferry and Guntram Wolff to discuss what the French election result will mean for France and Europe.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 11, 2017
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Opinion

Guntram B. Wolff

Europa sinnvoll gestalten

Die Debatte um die Zukunft Europas sollte gerade in Deutschland konstruktiv geführt werden. Es profitiert von einer stabilen EU und trägt entscheidend zur Fortentwicklung Europas bei. Einer zentralen Diskussion wird man sich stellen müssen: Wie kann die Stabilität des Euroraums erhöht werden? Der hier skizzierte Ansatz wäre eine Möglichkeit für einen Kompromiss.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 10, 2017
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External Publication

palgrave handbook of european banking

The Banking Union: An Overview and Open Issues

Dirk Schoenmaker's chapter in 'The Palgrave Handbook of European Banking', a handbook that collates the expertise and research of leading academic and senior policy makers in the field of European banking

By: Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: May 2, 2017
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Upcoming Event

Oct
2
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Europe and Japan: Monetary policies in the age of uncertainty

This event is co-organised by Bruegel and the Kobe University Graduate School of Economics.

Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
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Past Event

Past Event

Can EMU survive a multi speed Europe?

On 6 April Bruegel, as in previous years, hosted the presentation of the Euro Yearbook, a collection of experts’ insights on the construction of the European Monetary Union through 2016.

Speakers: Pablo Zalba Bidegain, Maria Demertzis, Fernando Fernandez, Javier Méndez Llera, Karl Pichelmann and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: April 6, 2017
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Blog Post

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Central bank communication in a low interest rate environment

Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event organised by Bruegel, Brussels, 31 March 2017

By: Benoît Coeuré Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 31, 2017
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The European Monetary Union (EMU) was founded with the idea that nominal convergence would bring real convergence, but structural differences between members have proven wide enough to generate lasting asymmetric negative shocks across the euro area.

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Opinion

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What future for Europe?

The Commission's White Paper on the future of the EU sets out five scenarios, but misses the fundamental questions facing Europe. How should the EU interact with its neighbourhood? How can we manage the tensions created by multi-speed integration? And above all how can the Euro be made sustainable in the absence of a major step towards fiscal union?

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 16, 2017
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External Publication

ruble

Collapse of the Ruble zone and its lessons

This essay, published by CESifo, aims to summarise the experiences of the two monetary disintegration episodes, i.e. termination of settlements in TR since 1 January 1991 and the gradual collapse of the Soviet ruble area in 1990–1993.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 15, 2017
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