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Working Paper

Fundamental uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy: an info-gap approach

This paper applies the info-gap approach to the unconventional monetary policy of the Eurosystem and so takes into account the fundamental uncertainty on inflation shocks and the transmission mechanism.

By: , and Date: February 28, 2017 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

This paper applies the info-gap approach to the unconventional monetary policy of the Eurosystem and so takes into account the fundamental uncertainty on inflation shocks and the transmission mechanism. The outcomes show that a more demanding monetary strategy, in terms of lower tolerance for output and inflation gaps, entails less robustness against uncertainty, particularly if financial variables are taken into account.

Augmenting the Taylor rule with a financial variable leads to a smaller loss of robustness than taking into account the effect of financial imbalances on the economy. However, in some situations, the augmented model is more robust than the baseline model. A conclusion from our framework is that including financial imbalances in the monetary policy objective does not necessarily increase policy robustness, and may even decrease it.

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Blog Post

An update: sovereign bond holdings in the euro area – the impact of quantitative easing

Since the European Central Bank’s announcement in January 2015 of its quantitative easing programme, national central banks have been buying government and national agency bonds. In this post we look at the effect of QE on sectoral holdings of government bonds, updating calculations that we published initially in May 2016.

By: Pia Hüttl and David Pichler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 10, 2017
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External Publication

European Parliament

The single monetary policy and its decentralised implementation: An assessment

This paper assesses the decentralised implementation of monetary policy by the Eurosystem in terms of its transparency, efficiency and simplicity. Compared to the Fed, the Eurosystem seems to have higher staff numbers and operational costs for similar tasks.

By: Francesco Papadia and Alexander Roth Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: October 4, 2017
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Past Event

Past Event

Europe and Japan: Monetary policies in the age of uncertainty

The 5th Bruegel - Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University conference will focus on monetary policy.

Speakers: Kosuke Aoki, Ulrich Bindseil, Grégory Claeys, Zsolt Darvas, Ester Faia, Lex Hoogduin, Martin Hellwig, Miles Kimball, Eric Lonergan, Benoît Mojon, Tamotsu Nakamura, Marianne Nessén, Athanasios Orphanides, Wataru Takahashi, Tokiko Shimizu and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: October 2, 2017
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Policy Contribution

A European perspective on overindebtedness

The sequence of crisis and policy responses after mid-2007 was a gradual recognition of the unsustainability of the euro-area policy framework. The bank-sovereign vicious circle was first observed in 2009 and became widely acknowledged in the course of 2011 and early 2012. The most impactful initiative has been the initiation of a banking union in mid-2012, but this remains incomplete and needs strengthening.

By: Nicolas Véron and Jeromin Zettelmeyer Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 28, 2017
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Opinion

A resilient Euro needs Franco-German compromise

In a piece signed by 15 leading French and German economists, Nicolas Véron lays out a path to a more sustainable Euro. Germany will need to accept some form of risk sharing. France will need to allow more market discipline. But the two countries can find a common vision for reforms

By: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Markus K. Brunnermeier, Lars Feld, Marcel Fratzscher, Philippe Martin, Hélène Rey, Isabel Schnabel, Nicolas Véron, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Henrik Enderlein, Emmanuel Farhi, Clemens Fuest, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 27, 2017
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Opinion

Hong Kong should add the euro to its dollar peg

Volatility offers an opportunity for the territory to rethink its strategy. With the economy now more synchronised with China than ever before, the dollar peg may no longer provide an accurate reflection of the real value of the Hong Kong dollar.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 12, 2017
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Opinion

Europe must seize this moment of opportunity

As the EU enjoys a period of growth and relative stability, there is finally room to undertake long-needed reforms. But it is vital to act soon, and priorities must be set. There are three pillars of reform for the coming months: completing a robust euro area; building a coherent EU foreign policy; and harnessing the single market’s potential to deliver strong and inclusive growth.

By: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Michael Hüther, Philippe Martin and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: August 12, 2017
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Blog Post

Italian economic growth and the Euro

While the Euro has frequently been blamed for the poor growth performance of Italy over the years, a long-term analysis shows deteriorating growth before the introduction of the Euro. Additionally, Italy has shown worse performance than other euro-periphery countries, such as Spain, implying deeper structural reasons for Italy’s economic malaise.

By: Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 26, 2017
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Blog Post

The international effects of ECB’s monetary policy

What’s at stake: the literature on monetary policy spillovers is abundant of studies investigating the impact of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcements and actions on emerging market economies. More recently, economists have been investigating the effect of the ECB’s credit easing as well.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 24, 2017
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Blog Post

The forward guidance paradox

What’s at stake: the term “forward guidance” is used in economic jargon to describe central bank communications about the likely future path of policy rates. Standard monetary models imply that far future forward guidance has huge effects on current outcomes, and recent literature has been trying to reconcile this with reality.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 10, 2017
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Blog Post

Raising the inflation target: a question of robustness

In an unexpected move, the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has recently brought up the issue of raising the inflation target. This blog argues that an increase in inflation targets may prove to be beneficial in achieving price stability in the long run. This would increase the credibility of central banks in achieving inflation goals and stave off the distortionary effects of deflation.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 22, 2017
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External Publication

A New Liquidity Risk Measure for the Chilean Banking Sector

This paper introduces a new metric for central banks – and in particular for the Central Bank of Chile – to measure liquidity risk in their banking sector using the bidding behavior of commercial banks in their open market operations.

By: Grégory Claeys, Sebastián Becerra and Juan Francisco Martínez Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: June 7, 2017
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