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Working Paper

Divorce settlement or leaving the club? A breakdown of the Brexit bill

To bring transparency to the debate on the Brexit bill and to foster a quick agreement, the authors of this Working Paper make a comprehensive attempt to quantify the various assets and liabilities that might factor in the financial settlement.

By: , and Date: March 30, 2017 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

The ‘Brexit bill’ is an expected payment to be made by the United Kingdom that would settle its financial commitments when it leaves the European Union.

While authors of this Working Paper consider the financial settlement the least important economic issue in the Brexit negotiations, a conditional agreement at least on the methodology for calculating the Brexit bill could be a prerequisite for the more meaningful discussions on the new EU-UK economic relationship after Brexit, such as future trade, financial services and labour mobility cooperation.

To bring transparency to the debate and to foster a quick agreement on the bill, the authors make a comprehensive attempt to quantify the various assets and liabilities that might be factors in the financial settlement.

The size of the Brexit bill will depend on fundamental political compromises and choices, which is discussed. Based on the different scenarios, the long-run net Brexit bill could range from €25.4 billion to €65.1 billion, possibly with a large upfront UK payment followed by significant EU reimbursements later.

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Blueprint

People on the move: migration and mobility in the European Union

Migration is one of the most divisive policy topics in today’s Europe. In this publication, the authors assess the immigration challenge that the EU faces, analyse public perceptions, map migration patterns in the EU and review the literature on the economic impact of immigration to reflect on immigration policies and the role of private institutions in fostering integration.

By: Uuriintuya Batsaikhan, Zsolt Darvas and Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 22, 2018
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Upcoming Event

Feb
8
10:30

Impact of Brexit on the EU energy system

This meeting will build on Bruegel’s recent report for the European Parliament (link) and will consist of two sessions. The first session will discuss the impact of Brexit on the EU energy sector, with a special focus on the consequences of Brexit for the Irish energy system. The second session will look at the impact of Brexit in terms of […]

Speakers: Georg Zachmann and Richard Tol Topic: Energy & Climate Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
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External Publication

Analysis of development in EU capital flows in the global context

The monitoring and analysis of capital movements is essential for policymakers, given that capital flows can have welfare implications. This report, commissioned by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, aims to analyse capital movements in the European Union in a global context.

By: Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis, Konstantinos Efstathiou, Inês Goncalves Raposo, Pia Hüttl and Alexander Lehmann Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: January 15, 2018
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Blog Post

Bad News and Good News for the Single Resolution Board

A first report on a key plank of the European Union’s banking union reflects on shortcomings thus far, but also suggests that recent improvements might ultimately lead the SRB to be successful in its critical missions.

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: January 15, 2018
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Blog Post

Does the European Parliament miss an opportunity to reform after Brexit?

While Brexit negotiations are beginning to progress, the European Parliament is preparing to vote on the possible reallocation of seats following the UK's departure. With many of the current proposals reflecting Member States' concerns about losing seats, this paper advocates for options that could better achieve equality of representation even within the constraints of the EU treaties.

By: Robert Kalcik, Nicolas Moës and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 10, 2018
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Policy Contribution

European Parliament

Bank liquidation in the European Union: clarification needed

Critical functions and public interest. What role do they play in Member States’ decision to grant liquidation aid? The author of this paper looks at how resolution and liquidation differ substantially when it comes to the scope of legislation applicable to the use of public funds and how the diversity in national insolvency regimes is a source of uncertainty about the outcome of liquidation procedures.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Finance & Financial Regulation, Testimonies Date: January 10, 2018
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Opinion

Opportunities and risks in Europe in 2018

The new year could very well see the positive story of 2017 continue in Europe – but a number of looming policy and political problems cannot be ignored.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 30, 2017
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External Publication

European Parliament

The Impact of Brexit on the EU Energy System

What will be the impact of Brexit on the EU energy system? With or without the UK, the EU will be able to complete its market, to achieve its climate and energy targets with feasible readjustments, and to maintain supply security

By: Gustav Fredriksson, Alexander Roth, Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: December 19, 2017
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Blog Post

Optimistic UK business confidence indicators predict smooth Brexit

UK business confidence indicators hardly fell after the Brexit vote in 2016 and have been increasing steadily since. The most likely reason is an expectation of smooth Brexit deal, especially for industry, while there is more uncertainty for services.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 19, 2017
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External Publication

European Parliament

Critical functions and public interest in banking services: Need for clarification?

What is the role that the concepts of critical functions and public interest play in Member States’ decision to grant liquidation aid? Silvia Merler looks at the recent liquidation of two Italian banks to show how resolution and liquidation differ substantially when it comes to the scope of legislation applicable to the use of public funds.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Finance & Financial Regulation, Testimonies Date: December 18, 2017
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Blog Post

Brexit, phase two (and beyond): The future of the EU-UK relationship

Whether it looks more like ‘CETA-plus’ or ‘EEA-minus’, the trade deal that emerges from phase two of the Brexit negotiations should not be the limit of ambition for future partnership between the EU and the UK

By: Maria Demertzis and André Sapir Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 13, 2017
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Blog Post

Support for intra-EU mobility of people is on the rise

Europeans’ enthusiasm for immigration from other EU countries is steadily increasing –two-thirds of the EU population, on average, now support it.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 12, 2017
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