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The future of globalization

This brief reviews the main features of the recent globalization, attempts to explain its persistence over the centuries and why it is likely to persist in the indefinite the future, examines the causes and prospects of the new protectionism, and concludes by drawing policy implications.

By: Date: May 29, 2017 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

Uri Dadush is Non-Resident Scholar at Bruegel and Senior Fellow at OCP Policy Center.

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This brief was originally published by the OCP Policy Center.

Very useful comments and suggestions on a previous draft by Karim El Aynaoui and William Reinsch are gratefully acknowledged.

Despite the threat posed by right-wing nationalism, left wing populism, and protectionism, this is not the end of globalization. The most likely scenario is a continuation of globalization at a rate like that of the last ten years and perhaps even acceleration as the world catches up on lost time in the wake of the financial crisis and its many aftershocks. However, in recent years a formidable resistance to globalization has arisen, and the risk of a sharp and temporary slowdown in global economic integration cannot be dismissed. Policy-makers and businesses should persist with their internationalization strategies, but also must take steps to mitigate the risk of protectionism.

This brief reviews the main features of the recent globalization, attempts to explain its persistence over the centuries and why it is likely to persist in the indefinite the future, examines the causes and prospects of the new protectionism, and concludes by drawing policy implications.

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