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Policy Contribution

A European perspective on overindebtedness

The sequence of crisis and policy responses after mid-2007 was a gradual recognition of the unsustainability of the euro-area policy framework. The bank-sovereign vicious circle was first observed in 2009 and became widely acknowledged in the course of 2011 and early 2012. The most impactful initiative has been the initiation of a banking union in mid-2012, but this remains incomplete and needs strengthening.

By: and Date: September 28, 2017 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

The euro-area crisis, which nearly destroyed Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 2011-12, was a result of perverse incentives and inadequate institutions. The perverse incentives included excessive implicit national guarantees of domestic banks, and a lack of clarity on what would happen in case of sovereign debt distress, which was interpreted as an implicit guarantee of euro-area sovereigns by each other. Correspondingly, Europe had no institutions that could credibly declare a bank to be failing or likely to fail, manage a bank resolution process, or manage a sovereign debt restructuring. As a consequence, in the decade before the crisis, most countries’ banking systems accumulated excessive risk on their balance sheets, and several member states also became overindebted.

The sequence of crisis and policy responses after mid-2007 was one of gradual, and generally very slow, recognition of the unsustainability of the euro-area policy framework. The bank-sovereign vicious circle, which had not been specifically identified as a potential contagion mechanism before the crisis, was first observed in 2009 and became widely acknowledged in the course of 2011 and early 2012. This vicious circle is now accepted by most observers as the central driver of the crisis during its most acute phase in 2011-12.

The policy response has developed in accordance with this evolving analysis. The most impactful initiative has been the initiation of a banking union in mid-2012, but this remains incomplete and needs strengthening. While many features of the euro-area experience are unique, the role of incentives and the gradual introduction of market discipline into the policy framework hold useful lessons for other jurisdictions.

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Blog Post

An update: sovereign bond holdings in the euro area – the impact of quantitative easing

Since the European Central Bank’s announcement in January 2015 of its quantitative easing programme, national central banks have been buying government and national agency bonds. In this post we look at the effect of QE on sectoral holdings of government bonds, updating calculations that we published initially in May 2016.

By: Pia Hüttl and David Pichler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 10, 2017
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Blog Post

Catalonia and the Spanish banking system

As tensions rise around Catalonia's independence movement, there are worries about the impact on the Spanish banking sector. Banks based in Catalonia account for around 14% of total assets. Some major institutions are already moving their headquarters to other parts of Spain. However, most Spanish banks have significant exposure to the Catalan market, and all could be caught up in the turmoil.

By: Yana Myachenkova Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 6, 2017
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External Publication

European Parliament

The single monetary policy and its decentralised implementation: An assessment

This paper assesses the decentralised implementation of monetary policy by the Eurosystem in terms of its transparency, efficiency and simplicity. Compared to the Fed, the Eurosystem seems to have higher staff numbers and operational costs for similar tasks.

By: Francesco Papadia and Alexander Roth Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: October 4, 2017
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Opinion

A Jamaican Germany is good for Europe

After a surprising election result, Europe is closely watching German coalition negotiations. A so-called Jamaica coalition of conservatives, liberals and greens is the most likely outcome, but many fear this will be bad for the EU and the Eurozone. Not so, argues Guntram Wolff. In fact, a shift to Jamaica could be good news for Europe.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 29, 2017
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Opinion

A resilient Euro needs Franco-German compromise

In a piece signed by 15 leading French and German economists, Nicolas Véron lays out a path to a more sustainable Euro. Germany will need to accept some form of risk sharing. France will need to allow more market discipline. But the two countries can find a common vision for reforms

By: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Markus K. Brunnermeier, Lars Feld, Marcel Fratzscher, Philippe Martin, Hélène Rey, Isabel Schnabel, Nicolas Véron, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Henrik Enderlein, Emmanuel Farhi, Clemens Fuest, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 27, 2017
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Blog Post

Chinese banks: An endless cat and mouse game benefitting large players

As deleveraging moves up in the scale of objectives of the Chinese leadership, banks now face more restrictions from regulators. As a result, banks have been very creative in playing the cat and mouse game in front of evolving regulations.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 26, 2017
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Policy Contribution

Dutch Senate

Europe’s fourfold union: Updating the 2012 vision

The depiction of the euro area/European Union (EU) as a ‘fourfold union’ emerged in the first half of 2012 at the height of the euro-area crisis. In the past half-decade, Europe’s financial union has been significantly strengthened but remains incomplete and is challenged by Brexit. No consensus has been found on fiscal union and economic union has not made material progress, but political union might have advanced further than many observers realize.

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: Dutch Senate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Testimonies Date: September 21, 2017
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Opinion

Is China Deleveraging? Too Early to Cheer

This blog post was originally published on BRINK “Deleveraging” is the new buzzword in China. The leadership clearly wants to scale back its epic borrowing, but it is not necessarily ready to pay the price for it, namely, the price of having less support for growth. The question is whether the recent efforts of China’s leadership to […]

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 13, 2017
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Blog Post

How has banking union changed mergers and acquistions?

The aim of the banking union was to break the toxic link between banks and states. One way of achieving this is by increasing cross border banking through mergers and acquisitions. This blog shows that little has changed in M&A activity since the banking union was launched. In fact, we seem to be witnessing a slight re-nationalisiation of banking consolidation.

By: Inês Goncalves Raposo and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: September 13, 2017
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Blog Post

Nordea’s move to the Banking Union is no surprise

Scandinavian banking giant is moving to Finland. This is not just a flight from increasing taxes and tighter regulation in its current home, Sweden. Nordea is also moving inside the banking union to find a fiscal backstop large enough to see it through any future crisis. Will this vote of confidence encourage Sweden and Denmark to join the banking union?

By: Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: September 12, 2017
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Opinion

Hong Kong should add the euro to its dollar peg

Volatility offers an opportunity for the territory to rethink its strategy. With the economy now more synchronised with China than ever before, the dollar peg may no longer provide an accurate reflection of the real value of the Hong Kong dollar.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 12, 2017
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Blog Post

Speech by Peter Kažimír at Bruegel Annual Dinner 2017

Peter Kažimír, Slovakia Finance Minister, delivered the keynote speech at Bruegel's Annual Dinner 2017, held on 7 September 2017.

By: Peter Kažimír Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 7, 2017
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