Download publication

Policy Contribution

Spotting excessive regional house price growth and what to do about it

Rapidly rising house prices are a well-known source of financial instability. This Policy Contribution examines whether there are regional differences in house price growth within European countries and, if so, whether this warrants more targeted measures to address vulnerabilities.

By: , and Date: October 18, 2017 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

This paper is accompanied by an online annex

Housing bubbles are a well-known source of financial instability. In addition, given the importance of this sector to the economy, the collapse of such bubbles tends to be followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries than other crises, as the recent boom-bust housing cycles in many countries have clearly demonstrated.

In the European Union, the policy instruments available to address this and to prevent future housing bubbles are implemented either at the national level (macroprudential policies) or at the euro-area level (monetary policy). However, recent research suggests that house price developments and bubbles are above all a local phenomenon.

There are significant regional differences in house price developments within EU countries, in particular between capital cities and other regions. Our results suggest that house price fluctuations in capital cities tend to be more volatile and stronger than in the rest of the countries, warranting more targeted measures at the local level.

The authors propose to use differentiated macroprudential policy at the regional level. This could be done with the application of different loan-to-value (LTV) or debt-to-income (DTI) limits for mortgages in capital cities and in the rest of the countries, in order to tighten policy more quickly in areas more prone to overheating. This type of policy has already been successfully applied in Korea. Competent authorities in the EU should consider adding this instrument to their toolkits in order to increase the precision, and therefore the effectiveness, of their policies.

View comments
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

External Publication

Analysis of development in EU capital flows in the global context

The monitoring and analysis of capital movements is essential for policymakers, given that capital flows can have welfare implications. This report, commissioned by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, aims to analyse capital movements in the European Union in a global context.

By: Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis, Konstantinos Efstathiou, Inês Goncalves Raposo, Pia Hüttl and Alexander Lehmann Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: January 15, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Bad News and Good News for the Single Resolution Board

A first report on a key plank of the European Union’s banking union reflects on shortcomings thus far, but also suggests that recent improvements might ultimately lead the SRB to be successful in its critical missions.

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: January 15, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Does the European Parliament miss an opportunity to reform after Brexit?

While Brexit negotiations are beginning to progress, the European Parliament is preparing to vote on the possible reallocation of seats following the UK's departure. With many of the current proposals reflecting Member States' concerns about losing seats, this paper advocates for options that could better achieve equality of representation even within the constraints of the EU treaties.

By: Robert Kalcik, Nicolas Moës and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 10, 2018
Read article Download PDF More by this author

Policy Contribution

European Parliament

Bank liquidation in the European Union: clarification needed

Critical functions and public interest. What role do they play in Member States’ decision to grant liquidation aid? The author of this paper looks at how resolution and liquidation differ substantially when it comes to the scope of legislation applicable to the use of public funds and how the diversity in national insolvency regimes is a source of uncertainty about the outcome of liquidation procedures.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Finance & Financial Regulation, Testimonies Date: January 10, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Opportunities and risks in Europe in 2018

The new year could very well see the positive story of 2017 continue in Europe – but a number of looming policy and political problems cannot be ignored.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 30, 2017
Read article Download PDF More by this author

External Publication

European Parliament

Critical functions and public interest in banking services: Need for clarification?

What is the role that the concepts of critical functions and public interest play in Member States’ decision to grant liquidation aid? Silvia Merler looks at the recent liquidation of two Italian banks to show how resolution and liquidation differ substantially when it comes to the scope of legislation applicable to the use of public funds.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Finance & Financial Regulation, Testimonies Date: December 18, 2017
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Brexit, phase two (and beyond): The future of the EU-UK relationship

Whether it looks more like ‘CETA-plus’ or ‘EEA-minus’, the trade deal that emerges from phase two of the Brexit negotiations should not be the limit of ambition for future partnership between the EU and the UK

By: Maria Demertzis and André Sapir Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 13, 2017
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Support for intra-EU mobility of people is on the rise

Europeans’ enthusiasm for immigration from other EU countries is steadily increasing –two-thirds of the EU population, on average, now support it.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 12, 2017
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

The DSGE Model Quarrel (Again)

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models have come under fire since the financial crisis. A recent paper by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Trabandt – who provide a defense for DSGE – has generated yet another wave of reactions in the economic blogosphere. We review the most recent contributions on this topic.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: December 11, 2017
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Sovereign Concentration Charges are the Key to Completing Europe’s Banking Union

The past crisis revealed that most euro-area banks have disproportionate sovereign exposure in their home country. Charging banks for sovereign concentration is one solution to this issue, and would help advance the discussion on banking union.

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 7, 2017
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

German wages, the Phillips curve and migration in the euro area

This post studies why wages in Germany have not borne strong increases despite a relatively strong labour market. I list four reasons why announcing the death of the Phillips curve – the negative relationship between unemployment and wage growth – is premature in Germany. One of the reasons I report is substantial immigration from the rest of the EU.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 29, 2017
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

The impact of Brexit on the Irish energy system – pragmatism vs. principles

Brexit promises pain for Ireland that could be cut off from the EU internal market and be left exposed to market instability in the UK. Georg Zachmann assesses the scale of the possible damage for Ireland, and how the UK and EU might use the special energy relations on the Irish island to commit to a pragmatic solution.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 21, 2017
Load more posts