Opinion

《宏觀有法-艾麗西亞》若為穩定樓價,香港樓市措施只是緣木求魚

若為穩定樓價,香港樓市措施只是緣木求魚

By: Date: December 20, 2017 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

This opinion piece has been published in Etnet.

 《宏觀有法》若為穩定樓價,香港樓市措施只是緣木求魚房價上漲成為全球擔憂,香港行政
長官林鄭月娥亦於首份施政報告中指出,置業負擔能力是政府不可迴避的責任。自2001年以
來,香港房價已經上升了461%,遠遠超過房租及家庭收入中位數。不斷上升的房地產價格令
香港政府擔憂,樓市的負面衝擊可能會給銀行及金融業帶來更大風險。

*監管措施有助保護銀行*

與房地產的深厚聯繫意味著銀行可能就房價下跌而面臨信貸及市場利率風險,最明顯的是加
息將增加借款人無力償還債務而違約的風險,同時政府提出增加單位供應計劃,加上劍指遏制房
價及槓桿的宏觀審慎政策,均可能令房屋價格調整。
香港金融管理局為控制金融風險推出多項宏觀審慎政策,包括更嚴謹的按揭成數上限及對新
按揭申請人進行強制性加息300點子的壓力測試。以上措施可能會避免銀行承擔過度風險,但
顯然對置業負擔能力毫無幫助,而事實證明樓價幾乎沒有被影響。在房價沒有崩盤的前提下,宏
觀審慎政策有利於銀行業的健康,新批准的抵押貸款的家庭槓桿率達到49%,遠低於2009
年的60-70%。
然而,更嚴格的借款要求導致了更長的還款期限,平均還款期限從2001年的17年上升
到2017年8月的26年。換句話說,即使新的抵押貸款在壓力測試中更嚴格,以保證借款人
對加息的承受力,銀行的風險實際上有所延長,同時亦令更多的業主利用當前房地產價格升值進
行物業重估及再融資。

*重點在於供應*

如果金管局最初的目標不是置業負擔能力,那麼責任只能由香港政府負擔,後者選擇印花稅
為政策工具,但效果顯然是非常有限,並逃不過以下的三部曲。一)首先,推出印花稅措施後,
市場通常需要時間回應,呈現價升量跌。二)交易量其後進一步下降,房價轉趨穩定。三)藥效
消失,量價齊升,新一輪的房價上漲開始。因此,印花稅可以於短期內遏止房價上漲,但市場需
求最終消化了額外的成本,導致房價一升再升。
與此同時,家庭住戶的增長速度一直超過了公共及私人住宅供應,說明供給甚至跟不上人口
需求,更不用說投機活動所帶動的額外需求。在房價上漲和需求依然旺盛的背後,香港政府在土
地開發和供應方面佔據主導地位,由於土地稀缺,每年的新單位供應量只佔全港家庭總數的
0﹒7%,與新加坡的大量供應情況完全相反,顯示香港政府政策更側重控制金融風險,並非家
庭置業負擔能力。
如果降低房價是香港政府的重要目標,我們應該已經看到比現在更多的供應,事實是儘管土
地供應近期出現回升,供應速度相比2000年以來其實已經大幅放緩。由於私人供應有限,置
業負擔能力又越來越差,公共房屋在邏輯上可能成為明智的解決方案之一,特別是香港在提供大
量公共單位方面有著悠久的歷史。然而,即使包括公共住宅供應,整體增長仍低於家庭住戶的增
幅,原因為公共單位供應減少。這解釋了為什麼低收入家庭生活越來越困難及私人房屋需求增加
,結果是房價節節上升。

*宏觀審慎政策難以一石二鳥*

我們認為這表明宏觀審慎政策的根本矛盾。金管局的目標為維持金融穩定,按揭成數上限及
壓力測試均對此目標有所貢獻。問題在於香港政府,其中的印花稅把房價推得更高,使購房者情
況更加困難,再加上政府財政高度依賴對土地相關收入,基本上意味香港政府可能有更大誘因維
持高房價。因此,宏觀審慎政策可以幫助維持金融穩定,但並不是置業負擔能力,除非政府有更
加決心增加供應,否則很難看到房價出現大變化。
《法國外貿銀行亞太區首席經濟師 艾麗西亞》


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