Opinion

中國投資轉向 服務業領航

傳統印象中,中國投資以工業為主,但仔細分析中國經濟數據可發現,中國投資主體早已轉為服務業,佔整體中國投資的三分之二,而傳統工業(排除政府的公共、交通、水利等投資)僅佔全部投資三分之一。

By: Date: March 13, 2018 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

这篇评论文章已发表于香港特区政府指定刊登法定通告/广告的中文日报“香港经济日报”:

傳統印象中,中國投資以工業為主,但仔細分析中國經濟數據可發現,中國投資主體早已轉為服務業,佔整體中國投資的三分之二,而傳統工業(排除政府的公共、交通、水利等投資)僅佔全部投資三分之一。這趨勢背後體現的是中國經濟的結構轉型,伴隨經濟規模不斷擴大,中國經濟將實現從工業向服務業的轉型,新增投資也必然追隨這一趨勢轉向服務業。

事實上,服務業投資在過去幾年表現非常堅挺,儘管同樣經歷2013年以來的持續下滑,但是在2015年下半年以後,這一頹勢已經得以扭轉,服務業投資的增長率穩定在10%以上。與此同時,中國的工業投資一路下滑,在2017年的某些月份甚至增速接近0,主導了中國在2015年以後投資的持續下滑。投資在服務業和工業的分化,加上近來服務業PMI指數明顯優於工業,也正在體現經濟轉型的過程。

三大產業投資突出

服務業中有三大產業的投資尤為突出,分別為水利環境、交通運輸及房地產行業,共佔中國整體投資超過80%。前兩項於過去幾年快速增長,增速介乎20%至30%之間,成為引領中國固定資產投資增長的兩個重要領域。我們認為,這兩項投資在2018年仍然會顯著提升。

首先,中國的水利及環境問題依舊突出,水資源不足及水旱災害頻繁的問題仍沒解決,而污染問題更逐漸成為社會最為詬病的症狀之一,加上公共設施投資依靠政府主導,因此受市場波動的影響較小。中國官方預計,傳統環保業務(水、氣、固廢)的投資於「十三五」期間將保持在25%左右的增速 ,水利投資也有可能達到增速超過20%。

物流活動強勢增長

另外,中國的物流業發展亦充滿機遇。其中物流業景氣指數在多數時間段都超過50%。從後期走勢來看,2017年12月最新的物流新訂單指數為53.5%,業務活動預期指數為55.8%,預示未來的物流活動將會保持穩健增長。

唯一令人擔憂的是房地產投資,政府限購政策令社會的房地產熱情開始消減,一線城市的房價甚至出現負增長,再加上政府對房企發債的限制,房地產投資堪憂。隨着房地產待售面積的不斷下降,儘管房企在未來一兩年內開始補充存貨,但如果政府調控政策依舊保持偏緊的態度,尤其是金融上仍然對房地產企業加以限制,房地產投資在2018年有機會保持平穩。事實上,資金環境日趨緊張,在岸發債早被叫停,政府顯然開始減少對房地產企業的金融支援。考慮到房地產企業投資對整體經濟的拉動作用,其效應將會大於前述兩項投資。

綜上推斷,服務業投資將在今年出現一定的分化,房地產投資預計依舊偏低,但是其他類型的服務業投資將會保持穩健,因此服務業整體投資在2018年依舊應保持較為平穩的增長。

法國外貿銀行大中華區高級經濟學家徐建煒對此文也有貢獻


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint.

Due to copyright agreements we ask that you kindly email request to republish opinions that have appeared in print to communication@bruegel.org.

View comments
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: Balancing free trade with national security interests

In this episode of Director's Cut, Stephanie Segal of CSIS joins Bruegel's Guntram Wolff and Maria Demertzis for a conversation about the tension between free trade and national security issues, and the emerging threats to multilateralism.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: February 19, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

The world’s response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative

This event will look at the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative as well as the response from the rest of the world.

Speakers: George Cunningham, Uri Dadush, Jean-Francois Di Meglio, Theresa Fallon, Alicia García-Herrero and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: February 8, 2019
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Policy Contribution

Russia's growth problem

After the 2014-2016 currency crisis, Russia’s economy has returned to growth, albeit at a slow pace. In this Policy Contribution, the authors analyse the potential causes of mediocre growth performance, as well as its impact on Russia's economic and political relationships. They also include their recommendations for the future.

By: Marek Dabrowski and Antoine Mathieu Collin Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: February 7, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: Reflections on five years of China's Belt and Road Initiative

Bruegel fellows Alicia García-Herrero and Uri Dadush join Guntram Wolff for this Director's Cut of 'The Sound of Economics', focusing on the progress made by China's Belt and Road Initiative, how it will continue to develop, and the reactions it has stirred across the world.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: February 7, 2019
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Working Paper

Countries’ perceptions of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: A big data analysis

Drawing on a global database of media articles, the authors quantitatively assess perceptions of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in different countries and regions. They also identify the topics that are most frequently associated with the BRI.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: February 6, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

The American tax debate

The debate over two different proposals for tax reforms: Senator Elizabeth Warren’s plan for a tax on wealth, and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s plan for a higher top marginal tax rate on income

By: Enrico Bergamini Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: February 4, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Why facts and think tanks matter

How can Think Tanks help address today's policy challenges by providing fact-based policy recommendations. What is the importance of international cooperation for Think Tanks?

Speakers: Tommaso Canetta, Giuseppe Porcaro, Sophie Gaston and Stefani Weiss Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: January 31, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Chinese growth: A balancing act

China’s GDP growth in 2018 was 6.6%, its lowest annual growth rate in more than two decades, and the rate is expected to slow further this year. What is driving the slow-down in Chinese growth and what are the implications for Chinese policymakers and the global economy? This post reviews the blogosphere’s take.

By: Konstantinos Efstathiou Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: January 28, 2019
Read article More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Backstage: Policy principles for a new social contract

This episode of The Sound of Economics features Bruegel senior fellow Zsolt Darvas in conversation with Maurizio Bussolo and Bernadette Ségol about income inequality in Europe and Central Asia, and the policy principles underpinning a possible new social contract.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: January 24, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Rules-based trading system and EU-Australia

At this event the Australian Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment, Senator the Hon Simon Birmingham will speak about Australia-EU bilateral trade, the FTA negotiations and the importance of multilateral rules-based trading system

Speakers: Senator the Hon Simon Birmingham, André Sapir and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: January 22, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Elections, institutions and statecraft: A tumultuous year for Modi in India

With the turn of the year, India has firmly entered election mode. Recent regional elections have begun to shift the political landscape, while tensions continue to simmer between the Reserve Bank of India and the Ministry of Finance. How the Modi government sees out this term could set important precedents for the incoming government in May 2019.

By: Suman Bery Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: January 16, 2019
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

What 2019 could bring: A look inside the crystal ball

Economic performance prospects in Europe, the US and Asia in 2019. We start off by reviewing commentaries and predictions about the euro zone, which many commentators expect to perform below potential as uncertainties continue to dampen a still robust recovery.

By: Michael Baltensperger Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: January 14, 2019
Load more posts