Opinion

中國銀行業資產質素改善,結構性問題漸現

中國經濟增長穩定及生產者物價指數增速高企,令自2015年起下跌的工業企業利潤重拾起色,企業可以利用收入減輕債務負擔,對銀行亦有所幫助。中國銀行業目前最明顯的問題(即資產質素)略有緩解,但這不代表其他結構性問題同時消失。流動性雖然緊張,最終仍可以透過中國人民銀行放寬貨幣政策解決,但盈利能力下降及有機資本增速不足均為較難解決的結構性問題,儘管資產擴張規模最近減慢,但增速仍然遠遠大於盈利,說明資產負債表還在增長過快。

By: Date: March 13, 2018 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

这篇评论文章发表在:

*收入仍不及資產增速,利息收入改善但只限國有商業銀行*

盈利能力最壞時刻看似已經過去,淨利潤增長從2015年的低點反彈,即使銀行利潤在過去一年左右增速加快,其增速依然沒有趕上資產增長的速度,令資產利潤率(ROA)及資本利潤率(ROE)持續受壓。淨利息收入整體改善,但只限受惠政策分化的國有商業銀行推動,由於資金成本較低,大型銀行穩定了淨息差,中小型銀行則面對更高資金成本,情況正好相反。與此同時,中國銀行業資金成本大幅增加,銀行最近終於看似能夠重新定價利率,但幅度仍然不能補償融資成本的上升。
政策變化亦是關鍵因素,大規模的地方政府債券置換亦增加了銀行投資持有量,但同時銀行取得的利息較以前大幅降低,平均利率大約從置換前的10%下降至2017年的4%,大大加劇了息差壓力。換句話說,這令銀行整體資產質素下降,但代價為盈利能力下降。

*非利息收入增長見頂*

另一方面,非利息收入幫助越來越有限,增速更於佔比依然非常小的情況下見頂,這顯然與影子銀行業務收緊有關,說明銀行於監管下尋找新收入來源更困難,銀行開始轉向信用卡及顧問服務,但顯然不足以抵銷影子銀行失去的收入。
盈利能力下降最終會直接影響償付能力,令中國銀行業越來越難自身產生有機資本,從而逼使銀行尋找其他渠道,在目前監管越來越緊,加上中國仍沒實施總損失吸收能力(TLAC)的情況下,融資需求在未來只會越來越強。

*解決方法還須腳踏實地*

總而言之,透過與整個金融體系分擔風險可以幫助銀行改善資產質素,但實際跟不上銀行資產增長。歸根究柢,銀行如果要真正徹底擺脫由從前信貸狂潮引致的困境,始終需要尋找穩定的資金及收入來源,以重新促進有機資本生成。


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