Opinion

中日經貿變化對全球企業的啟示

中日經貿關係於過去幾十年變化甚大,隨著中國希望加快邁向價值鏈中高端,從前兩國之間互補性較強的關係已經漸漸改變。

By: Date: March 13, 2018 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

这篇评论文章发表在:

*中日經貿關係微妙改變*

乘著中國從前的發展需求及加入世界貿易組織後的全球產業供應鏈變化,日本企業向中國出口大量機械,於中國的直接投資亦同時大增,但隨著中國擴大自身國內投資,日本直接投資佔總金額比例已經相對息微,加上中國企業續以本地生產代替進口,從前的貿易模式顯然逐漸變化。
這亦意味中日最初的互補關係減弱,雖然中國為日本第二大出口市場,但日本將面對中國企業開始爭奪高附加值產品的全球市場份額,不斷上升的競爭不只是日本面對的問題,亦是全球其他國家未來的重要挑戰。

*中國競爭力上升,未來競爭只會越來越大*

儘管日本出口近來因全球貿易周期性景氣好轉回升,但其競爭優勢正受到特別來自中國企業的結構性挑戰。根據我們對兩國的顯示性比較優勢指數(RevealedComparative Advantage Index,RCA)估算,中日兩國出口結構變得更加相似,而中國於日本十大出口產品中的競爭力均有所提高。
從日本的角度看,半導體產業為比較優勢最明顯受到削弱的產業,其中半導體為日本的第二大出口產品,但其領先比較優勢已經下降了75%以上,RCA差距只有0﹒22。因此,儘管日本半導體出口加速,但日本的技術優勢顯然受到挑戰。
然而,值得注意的是,日本目前所受到的挑戰仍然有限,尤其於汽車、機械及土木工程設備仍較中國擁有較大比較優勢,但在電子元器件和半導體方面的比較優勢則在縮小。

*全球企業將面對同樣挑戰,但日企狀況較佳*

雖然面對中國企業技術堀起,研發支出是日本依然保持優勢的關鍵,目前日本研發支出佔國內生產總值仍較中國高,但中國越來越大的經濟規模及研發投資顯然開始影響到兩國相對競爭力。與此同時,中國於2016年申請國際專利數量飆升,幾乎超過日本,雖然部分專利質素仍然存在疑問,因而創造的收益可能不及其他國家,但專利數量的增長仍然顯示中國正在以前所未有的速度提高技術。在此看來,日本無可避免需要保持高昂的研發費用,及將其用得其所。
展望未來,隨著中國縮小技術差距,日本的優勢不僅會在中國面臨進一步挑戰,競爭亦會蔓延至其他市場。對全球企業而言,目前具有技術優勢的發達國家也將面臨同樣的挑戰。


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