Opinion

港元真正挑戰為未來資本逆流風險

自美聯儲啟動加息周期兩年多以來,港元重回市場焦點,除了貨幣轉弱及波動 增加,港美息差亦持續擴闊。最近,港元再次開始貶值,導致市場擔憂加劇。由於港元利率仍然 處於「信用區間」內,我們認為目前情況仍然受控。

By: Date: March 13, 2018 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

这篇评论文章发表在:

 

*貶值故事重演,但無損港元信用*

我們認為近期港元及HIBOR處於低位源於市場對預期港元未來將會升值,這間接顯示市
場對貨幣發行局制度信心強大。首先,投資者預計港元升值將補償低利率帶來的損失,所以仍然
願意持有港元。其次,如果利率偏離「信用區間」,金管局仍可以採取一系列措施顯示維護港元
聯繫匯率制度決心,因此我們仍然對港元信心不變。

*流動性仍然非常充裕*

全球金融危機之後,港元聯繫匯率制度及美國量化寬鬆政策,加上自2014年以來的中國
資本外流,均使大量資金流入香港。與香港經濟規模相比,資本流入總量顯然非常龐大。自2016年以來,這更令香港銀行同業持續低於倫敦銀行同業拆息。
看出大量資金停泊於香港的端倪在於融資活動大幅增加,但港元拆息只輕微上升。當流動性 從前因為種種原因緊絀時,隔夜拆息可以升至高於5%,但目前即使市場上股權及債券融資大增,隔夜拆息在2016年前幾乎沒有變化,而在2017年息差擴大後才高升。我們預計 HIBOR趨勢將隨LIBOR上升而緊密變化,隨著預期2018年融資活動增加,特別是首 次公開募股(IPO),流入香港的資金有可能進一步推遲港美息差縮小的時機。

*金管局有一系列措施回應*

隨著過去資金流入加快,2008年以來貨幣基數已經擴大了5倍,使得港元頻頻貼近強方兌換保證。自此以來,金管局以多種方式回應,當市場匯率轉強至7﹒75港元兌1美元的強方兌換保證匯率,金管局向銀行沽出港元及買入美元,另一方面,金管局亦可以發行外匯基金票據管理銀行間流動性,更於最近額外發行票據紓緩港元貶值,以及幫助銀行面對巴塞爾協議III的需求。最後,當港元匯率到達兌換保證任何一方,金管局當然利用外匯干預。

*快速資本逆流風險為未來挑戰*

香港一方面為資本自由流動及高度開放的市場,亦同時受到貨幣發行局制度保護,資本流動金額不但巨大,更可能影響經濟活動。因此,未來最明顯的考驗為大量資本快速流出香港,在可預見的未來,最困難的潛在情況為美聯儲及人民幣同時衝擊港元。萬一美聯儲加快縮表步伐,美元全球流動性會迅速下降,如加上人民幣強勢令其計價資產日益吸引,可能會導致資金離開香港,轉向流入中國境內。這兩者同時發生可能會導致港元流動性枯竭,並大大推高拆息。換句話說,我們不擔心弱港元及低拆息,真正的挑戰為未來可能出現的弱港元及高拆息,這情況下的流動性緊縮可能比今天港元市場所看到的更嚴重。


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint.

Due to copyright agreements we ask that you kindly email request to republish opinions that have appeared in print to communication@bruegel.org.

View comments
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

The G7 is dead, long live the G7

The summit in Charlevoix left behind a Group of Seven in complete disarray. The authors think that the G-group, in its current formulation, no longer has a reason to exist, and it should be replaced with a more representative group of countries. In this fast-changing world, is the G7 only a relic of the past?

By: Jim O‘Neill and Alessio Terzi Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 13, 2018
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jun
21
17:45

State of transatlantic trade relations

A conversation on transatlantic relations with Michael Froman.

Speakers: Michael Froman, André Sapir and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jun
26
08:30

EU-LAC Economic Forum 2018

The second edition of the EU-LAC Economic Forum, a high level gathering for in-depth research-based exchanges on economic issues between European, Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) policy makers and experts.

Speakers: Angel Badillo, Federico Bonaglia, Sylvie Durán, Emilio Lamo de Espinosa, Alicia García-Herrero, Elisa Grafulla, Gonzalo Gutiérrez, Bert Hoffmann, Edita Hrdá, Ramón Jáuregui, Juan Jung, Carlos Malamud, J. Scott Marcus, Neven Mimica, Detlef Nolte, Guillermo Fernández de Soto, Anne Sperschneider and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jun
28
12:30

Trade war trinity: analysis of global consequences

Analysis of the long-term impact of the trade war and its three key players: EU, US, and China.

Speakers: Alicia García-Herrero and André Sapir Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Working Paper

European and Chinese trade competition in third markets: the case of Latin America

While Europe continues to hold important trade powers, the rise of China in the global economy has significantly reshaped international trade and competition. In this paper, the authors show that the degree of competition between both powers in Latin America has risen in the past decade due to China's increased trade of high-quality products. They address whether China is an increasingly relevant competitor for Europe in Latin America and in which sectors China-EU competition is fiercer. These findings should be a wake-up call to Europe in its quest to remain competitive at the global level.

By: Alicia García-Herrero, Thibault Marbach and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 7, 2018
Read article More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: Central banking and the problem of unelected power

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff discusses current tensions in central banking governance with Paul Tucker, former deputy governor of the Bank of England and author of the newly released book 'Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State'.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: June 5, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Trade wars: Just how exposed are EU Member States and industries to the US market?

This blog focuses on how a more restricted access to US final demand could affect EU economies and sectors, by measuring their share of value-added absorbed in the US. The exposure of the EU as a whole in value-added terms is lower compared to that suggested by gross exports to GDP and, overall, gross exports misconstrue the picture of spill-overs through trade linkages. For individual countries, the degree to which gross exports overestimate or underestimate exposure is relatively small, with the important exception of Ireland. However, gross exports significantly overestimate the exposure of EU manufacturing to US final demand.

By: Francesco Chiacchio and Konstantinos Efstathiou Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 1, 2018
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Making trade work for all – the Danish case

This event discussed how we can make trade work for all, focusing on the example of Denmark.

Speakers: Maria Åsenius, Sofia Bournou, Brian Mikkelsen, André Sapir, Eva Rytter Sunesen, Guntram B. Wolff and Casper Arnsbo Poulsen Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 28, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

China’s new role in the global economy

The changing role of China in the world economy has recently been highlighted by its registering of a first current account deficit in 17 years. We review the economists’ analyses of this new role and associated challenges.

By: Nicolas Moës Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 28, 2018
Read about event

Past Event

Past Event

Where is China’s financial system heading? Implications for Europe

How ready is China for the transformation of its financial system and how will this effect Europe?

Speakers: Elena Flores, Alicia García-Herrero, Gene Ma, Hu Yuwei and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: May 25, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Argentina’s troubles

Argentina has abruptly called on the International Monetary Fund for financial help, amid currency pressures. We review recent economists’ position on this.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 22, 2018
Read about event

Upcoming Event

Sep
3-4
08:30

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2018

The 2018 Annual Meetings will be held on 3-4 September and will feature sessions on European and global economic governance, as well as finance, energy and innovation.

Speakers: Maria Åsenius, Richard E. Baldwin, Maria Demertzis, Mariya Gabriel, Péter Kaderják, Joanne Kellermann, Jörg Kukies, Bruno Le Maire, Philippe Lespinard, Montserrat Mir Roca, Dominique Moïsi, Jean Pierre Mustier, Emma Navarro, Ana Palacio, Lucrezia Reichlin, André Sapir, Jean-Claude Trichet, Margrethe Vestager, Reinhilde Veugelers, Georg Zachmann and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Brussels Comic Strip Museum, Rue des Sables 20, 1000 Brussels
Load more posts