Blog Post

Which sectors would be most vulnerable to EU-US trade war?

As the US administration imposes new tariffs on steel and aluminium and considers further protectionist measures, we look at bilateral trade flows between the US and the EU28 across different types of products.

By: Date: March 15, 2018 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

In light of the introduction of trade tariffs on steel and aluminium in the US, and the subsequent possibility of trade war between the EU and US, it is useful to identify the potential points of future contention.

The bubble chart below compares bilateral trade flows across the ten Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) macro categories of products. Bubbles are clustered by product, and their size is proportional to the value of the flow. Data are based on Eurostat Comext and refer to 2016.

The EU28 runs a surplus in most product categories, with the exception of mineral fuels, crude materials and commodities not elsewhere specified (n.e.s.), and in particular for products in which the US and the EU28 trade intensively, like machinery and transport equipment (+€50.8 billion) and chemicals (+€29.3 billion).

Looking more in detail, the 10 most traded two-digit SITC products account for more than two thirds of all imports and exports between the US and the EU28. The two tables below summarise this information. With the exception of petroleum and related products (imported from the US) and specialised machinery (exported to the US), the same products are involved and it is interesting to look at major differences.

In general, the EU28 tends to export systematically more than it imports, especially in the case of road vehicles (+€36.5 billion), driven by massive EU28 exports of passenger cars to the US (+€30.4 billion), and of medicinal and pharmaceutical products (+€16.6 billion). On the other hand, the US exports more than it imports from the EU in the case of other transport equipment (-8.5 billion), mainly due to trade in aircraft, spacecraft, and associated equipment (-12.7 billion), as well as for power-generating machinery and equipment (-6.5 billion).

Particularly relevant may also be the trade in general industrial machinery and equipment, as well as in organic chemicals, because the EU28 exports to the US more than two times what it imports in those categories.


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.

View comments
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

What European trade policy in face of an emerging global trade war

On 25 April Bruegel is pleased to host Bernd Lange, Chair of the European Parliament's committee on International Trade.

Speakers: André Sapir, Bernd Lange and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: April 25, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Opinion

Why this round of U.S. protectionism is different

Although it is not the first time that the world has been caught in the China-U.S. crossfire, this round of U.S. protectionist moves against China is very different, and more worrisome than past ones. They involve a much larger number of products and in that they also target the global competition for U.S. companies and not only the U.S. market. It is in no way just a poker game launched by the U.S. to reduce its bilateral trade deficit with China, but the herald of an era of China-U.S. strategical competition.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 24, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Trade Wars: what are they good for?

Following the US announcements in early March of their intent to impose steel and aluminum tariffs, and the subsequent threats from China to retaliate with their own tariffs, the global trade picture remains uncertain. The IMF and the World Bank Spring Meetings set off amid US-Japan bilateral negotiations and Trump’s hot-and-cold approach to the TPP. This week we review blogs’ views on tensions over international trade and how they can impact world economic growth.

By: Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 23, 2018
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

The current state and future of the world trading system

This event will discuss the current state of the multilateral trading system and how it might evolve in the future.

Speakers: Iana Dreyer, Marc Vanheukelen, Everton Vargas, André Sapir and Xia Xiang Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: April 19, 2018
Read article More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: EU risks US tariff pain in standing by the WTO

As global trade war continues to unfold, Bruegel director Guntram Wolff is joined for this Director's Cut of 'The Sound of Economics' podcast by Bernd Lange MEP, chair of the Committee on International Trade (INTA), to discuss Europe's options.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: April 18, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Free trade in Africa: An important goal but not easy to achieve

The signing of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement and the Kigali Declaration may signal a new push towards economic integration on the African continent. However, it remains to be seen how many more countries sign up, how successfully 'phase two' is implemented later this year, and whether the agreement can be built upon to more comprehensively promote trade in services and a reduction of non-tariff barriers.

By: Marek Dabrowski and Yana Myachenkova Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 13, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

The European Globalisation Adjustment Fund: Time for a reset

It is only in the last decade that the EU has had an active policy to reintegrate workers who lost their jobs as a result of globalisation, through the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF). In this blog, the authors assess the performance of the Fund and make three recommendations to improve its effectiveness. To be more successful, the Fund should improve its monitoring and widen the scope of its usage.

By: Grégory Claeys and André Sapir Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: April 11, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

US Tariffs Aim to Contain China’s Technological Rise

While tension increases with each of the imports listed under the new tariffs, it now seems clear that the US are trying to slow down China's technological advances. Though such a protectionist attitude represents an obstacle, China should consider it an opportunity to strengthen relations with its Asian neighbours and the EU.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 10, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

What Are the Targets in the US–China Trade War?

Following the US announcement of new, high tariffs on imports, China is answering the Trump administration by applying its own series of tariffs. In this article, the author identifies the list of products that each country will be targeting, going beyond purely trade issues as each attempts to weaken the other.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 10, 2018
Read article More by this author

Opinion

How Should the EU Position Itself in a Global Trade War?

It is high time for the EU to work on more than just wishful thinking in response to the US challenge to global trade. With the first cracks appearing in the multilateral system, it will be difficult for the EU to maintain a middle course between the US and China.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: April 5, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Do wide-reaching reform programmes foster growth?

With growth gathering momentum in the eurozone, some have claimed this is the proof that structural reforms implemented during the crisis are working, re-opening the long-standing debate on the extent to which reforms contribute to fostering long-term growth. This column employs a novel empirical approach – a modified version of the Synthetic Control Method – to estimate the impact of large reform waves implemented in the past 40 years worldwide.

By: Alessio Terzi and Pasquale Marco Marrazzo Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 28, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director’s Cut: A global trade triumvirate?

In this week’s Director’s Cut of ‘The Sound of Economics’ podcast, Bruegel director Guntram Wolff hosts a discussion with Bruegel fellows Alicia García-Herrero and André Sapir on where Europe will position itself between the two major trading powers of China and the United States if relations continue to cool.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 27, 2018
Load more posts