Opinion

中國債轉股加速 利好銀行

中国银行业通过引入债转股来解决问题贷款,从而加强了清理机制。 虽然这允许银行以非常低的成本卸载其压力资产,但当我们仔细观察债务股权交换中所谓的“国有资金”时,它并不能阻止银行的风险敞口。

By: Date: April 5, 2018 Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation

该意见稿已发表于:

中國銀行業似乎在解決不良貸款問題上取得了良方。2017年末已公布債轉股總額達到1.05萬億元人民幣,佔貸款總額的1.1%。我們預計,銀行整體資產質素將因此有所改善,部分盈利壓力亦會相應緩解,但前提是已公布的債轉股不再只是紙上談兵,而是真正執行。

發布新準則加速執行

我們估計,真正執行的債轉股計劃只佔已公布總額的15.7%【圖1】。2018年1月發布的準則明確提出促進債轉股融資和加速執行的目標,私募股權基金將會更容易參與其中,銀行亦可以將理財產品資金投放到債轉股相關資產。

採用如「俄羅斯套娃」方式

如先撇除實際執行上的問題,債轉股有利銀行,原因非常簡單。銀行因債轉股從受壓資產置身事外,根據已執行債轉股的財務資料顯示,銀行僅保留總額的4%【圖2】。我們的分析顯示,資產管理公司、保險公司和國有基金是目前最重要的三大債轉股投資者。

然而,如果細看國有基金資金來源,銀行表面上的有限風險看起來要大得多。以參與債轉股最大型的兩隻國有基金為例,國有銀行持有其註冊資本的44%,其中更以低風險的中國郵政儲蓄銀行比例最重,其餘股東是現金充裕的國有企業。這實際上意味問題貸款在銀行資產負債表的貸款項目以外,重新貼上新標籤,並在銀行體系以外重新分配。

對投資者好壞難料

看起來很小的資產轉移動作,實際上對銀行影響非常大,即使銀行需要投資國有基金,並透過協力機構持有的債轉股股權,但因為中國制度下不需要合併報表,以致成本依然較低。換句話說,銀行持有不良資產會受到來自資本及撥備方面的壓力,但監管負擔都可以透過債轉股解除。

簡而言之,債轉股可以幫助銀行以低成本將問題資產轉予其他金融機構及投資者,而銀行的確可以通過有如「俄羅斯套娃」的多層嵌套方式進行債轉股,以此清理不良貸款及從而獲益。這也許對於銀行來說是個良好的重組解決方案,但對其他最終投資者卻好壞難料。


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint.

Due to copyright agreements we ask that you kindly email request to republish opinions that have appeared in print to communication@bruegel.org.

View comments
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jun
20
12:30

Sound at last? Assessing a decade of financial regulation

What has changed since the financial crisis of 2008 that makes the financial system sound at last? Is regulatory reform going in the right direction? Has it run its course? 

Speakers: Patrick Bolton, Rebecca Christie, Maria Demertzis, Mathias Dewatripont and Xavier Vives Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jun
24
08:30

China’s investment in Africa: consequences for Europe

How is Chinese investment impacting Africa, and what could be the consequences for Europe?

Speakers: Solange Chatelard, Maria Demertzis, Alicia García-Herrero and Abraham Liu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jun
25
12:30

Policy options for new tech-enabled payment processes

What challenges does a shift towards new payment processes imply for EU financial services policy?

Speakers: Rebecca Christie, Chirag Patel and Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Working Paper

China and the world trade organisation: towards a better fit

China’s participation in the WTO has been anything but smooth, as its self-proclaimed socialist market economy system has alienated its trading partners. The WTO needs to translate some of its implicit legal understanding into explicit treaty language, in order to retain its principles while accommodating China.

By: Petros C. Mavroidis and André Sapir Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 13, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

The inverted yield curve

Longer-term yields falling below shorter-term yields have historically preceded recessions. Last week, the US 10-year yield was 21 basis points below the 3-month yield, a feat last seen during the summer of 2007. Is the current yield curve a trustworthy barometer for future growth?

By: Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 11, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

EU-LAC Economic Forum 2019: New perspectives in turbulent times

The third edition of the EU-LAC Economic Forum.

Speakers: Diego Acosta Arcarazo, Ignacio Corlazzoli, Maria Demertzis, Mauricio Escanero Figueroa, Alicia García-Herrero, Carmen González Enríquez, Bert Hoffmann, Edita Hrdá, Matthias Jorgensen, Juan Jung, Tobias Lenz, Carlos Malamud, J. Scott Marcus, Elena Pisonero, Belén Romana and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: June 11, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jun
21
12:30

Financial inclusion of SMEs for growth and job creation

How can increased access to finance benefit SMEs? What reforms are needed to encourage SME financial inclusion?

Speakers: Jihad Azour, Bruno Balvanera, Zsolt Darvas, Barbara Marchitto, Anta Ndoye and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jul
12
09:30

The 4th industrial revolution: opportunities and challenges for Europe and China

What is the current status of EU-China relations concerning innovation, and what might their future look like?

Speakers: Elżbieta Bieńkowska, Chen Dongxiao, Eric Cornuel, Ding Yuan, Jiang Jianqing, Pascal Lamy, Li Mingjun, Signe Ratso, Reinhilde Veugelers, Wang Hongjian, Guntram B. Wolff and Xu Bin Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Too crowded bets on “7” for USDCNY could be dangerous

The Chinese yuan has been under pressure in recent days due to the slowing economy and, more importantly, the escalating trade war with the US. While the Peoples Bank of China has never said it will safeguard the dollar-yuan exchange rate against any particular level, many analysts have treated '7' as a magic number and heated debates have begun over whether the number is unbreakable.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 6, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

The 'seven' ceiling: China's yuan in trade talks

Investors and the public have been looking at the renminbi with caution after the Trump administration threatened to increase duties on countries that intervene in the markets to devalue/undervalue their currency relative to the dollar. The fear is that China could weaponise its currency following the further increase in tariffs imposed by the United States in early May. What is the likelihood of this happening and what would be the consequences for the existing tensions with the United States, as well as for the global economy?

By: Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 3, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Backstage: Ukraine's economic and political outlook

In this episode of ‘The Sound of Economics’, Giuseppe Porcaro hosts Hlib Vyshlinsky, executive director of the Centre for Economic Strategy, and Bruegel fellow Marek Dabrowski to discuss what the new Ukrainian government should do to meet the challenges facing the country’s economy.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 31, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Expect a U-shape for China’s current account

As the US aims to reduce it's bilateral trade deficit, China's current-account surplus is back in the headlines. However, in reality China’s current-account surplus has significantly dropped since the 2007-08 global financial crisis. In this opinion piece, Alicia García-Herrero discusses whether we should expect a structural deficit or a renewed surplus for China's current-account.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 28, 2019
Load more posts