Opinion

中國債轉股加速 利好銀行

中国银行业通过引入债转股来解决问题贷款,从而加强了清理机制。 虽然这允许银行以非常低的成本卸载其压力资产,但当我们仔细观察债务股权交换中所谓的“国有资金”时,它并不能阻止银行的风险敞口。

By: Date: April 5, 2018 Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation

该意见稿已发表于:

中國銀行業似乎在解決不良貸款問題上取得了良方。2017年末已公布債轉股總額達到1.05萬億元人民幣,佔貸款總額的1.1%。我們預計,銀行整體資產質素將因此有所改善,部分盈利壓力亦會相應緩解,但前提是已公布的債轉股不再只是紙上談兵,而是真正執行。

發布新準則加速執行

我們估計,真正執行的債轉股計劃只佔已公布總額的15.7%【圖1】。2018年1月發布的準則明確提出促進債轉股融資和加速執行的目標,私募股權基金將會更容易參與其中,銀行亦可以將理財產品資金投放到債轉股相關資產。

採用如「俄羅斯套娃」方式

如先撇除實際執行上的問題,債轉股有利銀行,原因非常簡單。銀行因債轉股從受壓資產置身事外,根據已執行債轉股的財務資料顯示,銀行僅保留總額的4%【圖2】。我們的分析顯示,資產管理公司、保險公司和國有基金是目前最重要的三大債轉股投資者。

然而,如果細看國有基金資金來源,銀行表面上的有限風險看起來要大得多。以參與債轉股最大型的兩隻國有基金為例,國有銀行持有其註冊資本的44%,其中更以低風險的中國郵政儲蓄銀行比例最重,其餘股東是現金充裕的國有企業。這實際上意味問題貸款在銀行資產負債表的貸款項目以外,重新貼上新標籤,並在銀行體系以外重新分配。

對投資者好壞難料

看起來很小的資產轉移動作,實際上對銀行影響非常大,即使銀行需要投資國有基金,並透過協力機構持有的債轉股股權,但因為中國制度下不需要合併報表,以致成本依然較低。換句話說,銀行持有不良資產會受到來自資本及撥備方面的壓力,但監管負擔都可以透過債轉股解除。

簡而言之,債轉股可以幫助銀行以低成本將問題資產轉予其他金融機構及投資者,而銀行的確可以通過有如「俄羅斯套娃」的多層嵌套方式進行債轉股,以此清理不良貸款及從而獲益。這也許對於銀行來說是個良好的重組解決方案,但對其他最終投資者卻好壞難料。


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint.

Due to copyright agreements we ask that you kindly email request to republish opinions that have appeared in print to communication@bruegel.org.

View comments
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

How could Europe benefit from the US-China trade war?

Under pressure from the US, Beijing is set to be more open to making new allies.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 18, 2018
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Asia-Europe Economic Forum 2018 - Public

This year's Asia-Europe Economic Forum (AEEF) will be held in Brussels on 17-18 October

Speakers: Chung Chul, Xie Fuzhan, Matthias Helble, Jyrki Katainen, Jin Keyu, Jae-Seung Lee, Erik van der Marel, Yoichi Otabe, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Rintaro Tamaki, Amb. Karsten Warnecke and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Solvay Library, Rue Belliard 137, 1000 Bruxelles Date: October 18, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Backstage: The new balance of Asia-EU-US trade relations

Amid the Asia-Europe Economic Forum on the fringes of the 12th ASEM Summit, Bruegel senior fellow hosts a conversation on developing global trade relations, with guests Moonsung Kang, professor as Korea University, and Michael G. Plummer, director at SAIS Europe – Johns Hopkins University, for an episode of the Bruegel Backstage series on ‘The Sound of Economics’.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 17, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Can Eurozone Reform Help Contain Trump?

The Trump administration knows that a key source of US economic leverage is the dollar’s role as the world’s dominant reserve currency. Countering America’s disproportionate power to destabilize the global economy thus requires reducing the share of international trade conducted in dollars.

By: Jochen Andritzky Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 17, 2018
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Asia-Europe Economic Forum 2018 - Closed-door

This year's Asia-Europe Economic Forum (AEEF) will be held in Brussels on 17-18 October

Speakers: William Becker, Franco Bruni, Zsolt Darvas, Andreas Esche, He Fan, Michael G. Plummer, Thomas Grjebine, Gao Haihong, Kiyoto Ido, Sébastien Jean, MA Jun, Moonsung Kang, Stefan Mair, Yung Chul Park, Choonsung Park, Sayuri Shirai, Guntram B. Wolff and Naoyuki Yoshino Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: October 17, 2018
Read about event

Upcoming Event

Nov
7-9
09:30

Global Think Tank Summit 2018

The 2018 Global Think Tank Summit is organised by Bruegel and he Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) of the University of Pennsylvania. It will be held in Brussels on 7-9 November.

Topic: Energy & Climate, Global Economics & Governance Location: Bozar, Rue Ravenstein 23, 1000 Bruxelles
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Global markets’ tepid reaction to China’s new opening

China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation in 2001 was greeted with great fanfare. But near silence has greeted the recent removal by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission of caps on foreign ownership of Chinese financial institutions. For Beijing, the apparent lack of interest might be an issue of too little, too late.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 11, 2018
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

External Publication

The EU response to US trade tariffs

The authors contributed to the new issue of 'Intereconomics - Review of European Economic Policy' with a paper on the EU's strategy for managing the trade war. The authors argue that to minimise the economic costs of the trade war and protect multilateralism, the EU's best and only response is to retaliate.

By: Maria Demertzis and Gustav Fredriksson Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 11, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Are economic and political freedoms interrelated?

Democracy has not always accompanied market economy. But in modern societies, economic and political freedoms are increasingly interconnected. Democracy and market economy can support each other. This is particularly true in post-communist economies of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Thus, authoritarian tendencies observed in these and other regions can negatively affect quality of economic policy and governance.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 10, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Ten years after the crisis: The West’s failure pushing China towards state capitalism

When considering China’s renewed state capitalism, we should be mindful of the damage done by the 2008 financial crisis to the world's perception of Western capitalism.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 10, 2018
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Nov
16
09:00

EU Financial Markets: East Meets West

Banking and financial regulation in the East and the West: links, differences and future.

Speakers: Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Collegium Iuridicum II, Lipowa 4, Hall A3, Warsaw, Poland
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

Financial panic and the Great Recession

A debate on the roles of financial panic in the Great Recession has been pitting Ben Bernanke against Paul Krugman in what has been characterised as “the battle of the beards”. Other economists have joined the discussion on the new American Economic Association’s discussion forum.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: October 8, 2018
Load more posts