Opinion

中國金融大幅開放:這次會否不同?

上周中國國家主席習近平在第17屆博鰲論壇上的演講宣布中國將進一步對世界開放。

By: Date: April 18, 2018 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

该意见稿已发表于:

上周中國國家主席習近平在第17屆博鰲論壇上的演講宣布中國將進一步對世界開放。其中之一是金融業,中國人民銀行行長易綱進一步證實了對外開放金融業的舉措。儘管官方清單看似很長,涵蓋11項內容,從放寬金融機構的外資所有權到大幅擴大外資銀行的業務範圍,但大部分已在去年11月特朗普訪華時或在中國2001加入世界貿易組織(WTO)時
提及。

開放時間表年內實行

雖然目前很難判斷這一次中國是否真的會大幅度開放金融業是否會與以往有所不同,但至少我們可以從潛在投資者的反應中觀察並得出這種潛在開放頗為薄弱,唯一相關的消息是瑞士聯合銀行推出首支境內私募證券投資基金(現有合資企業),但該消息實際上在2017年11月宣布開放之前已公布。

隨著最近中美貿易戰局勢升級,易綱公布了中國有關計畫實施的金融開放的更多細節,相比之前11月份公布內容更加開放,涵蓋銀行、保險、證券和資產管理。例如新增大幅度擴大外資銀行業務範圍,但仍不確定將放寬的業務類型。將證券公司、基金管理公司、期貨公司、人身險公司的外資持股比例的上限放寬到51%。

市場開放以自身利益為主

但是,中國顯然在市場開放上以保護自身利益為主,而不是提供免費午餐。在銀行資產負債表大幅增長和不良貸款堆積後,中國監管機構希望對市場(具有中國特色)進行清理。過去幾年內,中國的大規模證券化顯然受益於國外專業知識。如果外國公司可以吸引外國投資者分享潛在損失,情況將會變得更好。因此中國將金融業開放實在情理之中。此外,滬深通的每日額度將從2018年5月1日擴大四倍,由於MSCI包含A股,這對市場預期良好,這有助於資本流入中國。

自去年特朗普訪問後,中國政府對金融開放的舉措並沒有緩和美國政府對中國的立場,當這次博鰲論壇上提及的多數內容其實與之前公布的政策沒有大變化時,我們很難想像美國政府立場會忽然軟化。此前,美國已正式宣布反對中國從WTO獲得的市場經濟地位,而現在美國對華貿易的立場越來越強硬,真正的原因在於知識產權和「中國製造2025」目標威脅到美國自身優勢,加上北韓問題依然存在,這也表明獲得中國金融市場上少許經營牌照不會讓兩國關係改善。雖然金融開放的速度有所增加,但中國仍然可以透過政手段控制不同國家的參與程度,尤其是美國,因此中美關係的發展依然不平穩及充滿變數。


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