Opinion

中國加速金融開放,但不確定性依然存在

在外部壓力加劇的形勢下,中國似乎有意加快開放市場,而擴大開放的重要一步是金融領域。中國可以通過金融開放讓全世界分享盈利,但屆時實際上也能從中受益。外界壓力雖然促進金融開放,但可能並不是背後的主因。

By: Date: May 24, 2018 Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation

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在外部壓力加劇的形勢下,中國似乎有意加快開放市場,而擴大開放的重要一步是金融領域。中國國家主席習近平在博鰲論壇上宣布了金融開放意象,其後人行行長易綱公布了更多細節。然而,這次公開的開放舉措與2017年11月美國總統特朗普訪華期間所公開的措施並無太大不同,因此問題在於是實際金融開放到底有多大。為了回答這個問題,我們將研究中國金融市場的外資份額,並分析近期在金融開放方面的舉措。

目前金融業的外資份額佔比仍然很低,除了銀行以外,其他金融業幾乎都是依靠合資企業模式。先以外商獨資的銀行為例,2017年外資銀行在總資產的佔比下降至1﹒3%,原因之一也許是因為外資企業在貨幣和非貨幣方面的商業成本以及風險方面都相對較高。在中國營運的外資銀行的成本收入比高達66%,幾乎是中國本土銀行的兩倍,這也是為什麼外資銀行資產回報率遠低於本土銀行的原因,這些因素不但導致外資減持中國銀行業股份,而且減緩了對中國的金融直接投資。

在中外合資企業方面,去年的外資券商份額縮小至3﹒9%。人壽保險是外資在市場份額唯一增加的行業(2017年佔比為7﹒2%)。人口老齡化是保險產品和投資的主要推動力,同時外企普遍在保險產品創新和投資組合管理方面具有更全面的經驗。基金方面,2016年外資合資企業的市場份額保持在40%的高位,但海外投資者通常並不佔據較大份額的股權。

此次進一步開放經濟的公告包含取消銀行和金融資產管理公司的外資持股比例限制的執行時間表,加速開放保險業進程,人壽保險公司的外資持股比例的上限放寬到51%並將在今年6月30日之前落實,取代了之前宣布的三年後將放寬比例上限至51%的公告。此外,證券公司、基金管理公司、期貨公司的外資持股比例的上限也將在今年6月30日前放寬到51%,三年以
後不再設限。

取消股權比例的硬性限制有助於吸引現金流,但軟性約束條件依然是外資進入中國市場的主要障礙。誠然外資的確可以通過此次開放在中國市場分一杯羹,對於市場不斷擴大且外資市場份額持續提升的保險業而言尤為如此,不過取消股權上限並不意味著立即開放。例如,對於控股外商投資證券公司的公司資本要求是淨資產不低於1000億人民幣,這限制了很多公司以獨資或大股東形式進入中國市場。

中國在金融開放的加速本質上並不是僅僅對外界壓力的回應。關鍵在於中國對自身利益也有很強的訴求,通過證券化來清理銀行的問題貸款仍在繼續。證券化專業知識的發展也和中國金融體系演變息息相關。換而言之,中國可以通過金融開放讓全世界分享盈利,但屆時實際上也能從中受益。外界壓力雖然促進金融開放,但可能並不是背後的主因。我們目前已經看到更多的公司(如野村證券、瑞穗金融、摩根大通)都在考慮申請許可證或者增加證券公司的持有份額,但歸根究底,鑑於很多企業對於以往的投資經歷並不滿意,最重要的問題外國投資者是否相信及使用這次機會。


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