Opinion

中國半導體夢任重道遠

半导体一直是“中国制造2025”战略的主要焦点,自2015年以来,集成电路已超过石油成为中国最大的进口产品,占进口的14%。 虽然政府提供了大量的财政资源来支持这一战略,但其IC自给率目标只能说还有很长的路要走。

By: Date: May 3, 2018 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

该意见稿已发表于:

最近從美國對中興通訊(00763)的制裁措施,不難看出所有國家都想佔據戰略產業的價值鏈頂端。此前「中國製造2025」就已表明,中國對半導體產業的野心已經是公開的秘密。2018年3月,中國政府為國家積體電路產業投資基金(簡稱「大基金」)二期募資,規模達2000億元人民幣(320億美元),並加推額外減稅措施。

錢海戰術遇到障礙

半導體一直被視為「中國製造2025」戰略的重點,原因為半導體是電子行業增值鏈中最重要的一環,也是未來技術應用的推動力,但中國產能卻相當有限。自2015年以來,集成電路已經超過石油成為中國最大的進口產品,佔進口14%,無疑表明中國半導體非常依賴進口。

為實現創新發展目標,政府加強布局半導體及大灑「錢雨」,當中以中國政府和國有企業斥資成立產業基金支援半導體行業為主。除直接注資外,中國半導體企業的有效稅率僅為11%,遠低於全球同業,利率也處於2.2%的低位,極端情況下更可獲得債務豁免。錢海戰術背後的根本原因是中國作為世界上最大的半導體市場,供應卻一直由外資主導。

中國政府應大力扶持企業擴展低端產品市場份額。對於高端企業而言,併購勢在必行,但由於關鍵市場(主要是美國,其次是日本和歐洲)投資審查的縮緊,收購變得愈來愈艱難。

併購目標或轉向歐洲

總而言之,中國半導體企業將因其規模較小而快速蓬勃增長,並挑戰產業鏈低端的企業,但在產業鏈高端市場的全球領導者面前,技術瓶頸是一個巨大的障礙。雖然政府提供了大量財政資源支援「中國製造2025」,但其75%的集成電路自給率目標只能說是任重道遠。

以上分析表明2018年中國在半導體行業需要再次進入併購階段。鑑於美國政府對中國公司的限制,歐洲將會是最簡單的目標。我們預計,今年中國企業會轉向歐洲,因此歐洲半導體公司需求將會增加。


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