Opinion

人民幣國際化需要政策導向,更需要建立信心

人民幣國際化對於提升中國軟實力、降低匯率風險、有效利用中國龐大的外匯儲備、推動跨境貿易和投資具有重要意義;但真正的問題在於人民幣國際化迄今取得了多大進展。

By: Date: June 22, 2018 Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation

该意见稿已发表于:

2018年對人民幣國際化來說是特殊的一年:這不僅是香港人民幣離岸中心成立15周年,也是人民幣原油期貨在上海上市交易和A股納入MSCI的一年。人民幣國際化對於提升中國軟實力、降低匯率風險、有效利用中國龐大的外匯儲備、推動跨境貿易和投資具有重要意義;但真正的問題在於人民幣國際化迄今取得了多大進展。

雖然新聞版面上充斥著人民幣將很快將取代美元成為主要國際貨幣的消息,但實際情況是,2015年8月匯率改革以來的兩年間,人民幣國際化進程止步不前,且前路漫漫。2016年將人民幣納入SDR是過去幾年人民幣作為官方計價貨幣發展的里程碑,但這更多是象徵性地推動人民幣的國際使用,目前尚未有官方貨幣正式與人民幣掛勾。

我們首先看看去年的發展情況。人民幣作為國際貨幣的最主要用途是交換媒介。然而,自2016年以來,人民幣結算的貿易總量明顯下降,且至今沒有明顯回升跡象。而國際貨幣在官方領域的使用以雙邊貨幣互換為主,目前人民幣的貨幣互換總量達到3萬億元以上,迄今為止最大規模的協議是與香港簽署的4000億元人民幣港幣互換。好消息是2017年年中以來,人民幣形式下的對內和對外直接投資回升。雖然佔總量的比例仍然很小,海外投資者持有的人民幣股票和債券總量也有所增加。

展望未來,政府政策應該會繼續支持人民幣走出國門。人民幣原油期貨顯示了中國石油公司提高在國際原油市場議價能力的願景。另外,中國跨境銀行間支付系統(CIPS)於2018年5月啟動旨在覆蓋所有時區和市場的第二階段,將大大推動人民幣跨境支付。預計A股納入MSCI和債券納入彭博巴克萊全球綜合指數等最新發展也將吸引資本流入在岸市場

正如上述發展所示,中國正在努力提高人民幣資產的吸引力,並降低相關交易成本。股票和債券互聯的成功似乎提供了中國在封閉資本帳戶情況下開放資本流動控制管道的解決方案。然而,人民幣國際化的最終答案在於信心,這也是其面臨的一個不可避免的挑戰。儘管中國政府可以在放鬆政策的情況下促進短期內資金流入和利用,特別是考慮到中國資產的經濟規模,中國資產的外資持股比例顯然太小,但吸引真正的外資流入並促進人民幣的國際化用途需要更加市場化的方法。隨著地緣政治風險的加劇,人民幣國際化的前路只會變得更加複雜。人民幣國際化將需要放鬆資本管制,這推動可能會加強中國的軟實力,但同時也意味著中國將受到更多的外部波動的衝擊。


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint.

Due to copyright agreements we ask that you kindly email request to republish opinions that have appeared in print to communication@bruegel.org.

View comments
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Immigration: The doors of perception

Surveys show that people systematically overestimate the share of foreign-born citizens among resident populations. Aligning people's perceptions with reality is vital to the betterment of public debate and proposed policies.

By: Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 12, 2018
Read article More by this author

Opinion

The UN climate conference in Katowice: A message from the European capital of coal

Following the COP24 climate talks in Poland, Simone Tagliapietra reviews the arguments for and challenges to decarbonisation.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate, Global Economics & Governance Date: December 12, 2018
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

Economic policy challenges in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean

For a long time, southern and eastern Mediterranean countries struggled with serious socio-economic challenges and dysfunctional economic systems and policies. Marek Dabrowski reviews the challenges the region has to face to get out of a low growth trap.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 11, 2018
Read article Download PDF More by this author

External Publication

A new strategy for EU-Turkey energy cooperation

Cooperation over energy and climate issues could be one of the components of the EU-Turkey Positive Agenda. Simone Tagliapietra proposes a new strategy for EU-Turkey energy cooperation, which envisions a shift of focus from gas and electricity to fields such as renewables and nuclear energy.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate, Global Economics & Governance Date: December 5, 2018
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

The great macro divergence

Global growth is expected to continue in 2019 and 2020, albeit at a slower pace. Forecasters are notoriously bad, however, at spotting macroeconomic turning points and the road ahead is hard to read. Potential obstacles abound.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 5, 2018
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

Green central banking

A few weeks ago, Silvia Merler discussed the rise of “ethical investing”. A related question emerging from the discussion is whether central banks should also “go green”. Silvia reviews the latest developments and opinions on this topic.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Energy & Climate, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: December 3, 2018
Read article More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Backstage: Transitioning towards sustainable finance

In this episode of the Backstage series, Bruegel's Non-Resident Fellow Dirk Schoenmaker welcomes Molly Scott Cato, a Green party MEP for South West England, for a conversation on the EU's plan to transition towards sustainable finance.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Energy & Climate, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: November 30, 2018
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Youth unemployment: Common problem, different solutions?

Youth unemployment is a major obstacle to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s human and economic development. In this blog post, Uri Dadush and Maria Demertzis go into the factors behind the its surge.

By: Uri Dadush and Maria Demertzis Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: November 29, 2018
Read article More by this author

Opinion

The world deserves a more effective G20

As the presidency shifts from Argentina to Japan at Buenos Aires (and then to Saudi Arabia) it is worth asking why the G20 has endured this long and what it needs to remain relevant in a dramatically changed world.

By: Suman Bery Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: November 29, 2018
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Policy Contribution

Sustainable investing: How to do it

Sustainable investment is gaining momentum in Europe, but its current proposed taxonomy might hinder innovation in the field. In this Policy Contribution, Dirk Schoenmaker advocates for an active investment approach with concentrated portfolios, and sets out a six-point plan for sustainable investing.

By: Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: November 28, 2018
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

How to speed up sustainable finance?

Which steps are needed to really change current practices and speed up sustainable finance?

Speakers: Sophie Barbier, Molly Scott Cato, Cathrine de Coninck-Lopez, Alain Deckers, Edmund Lakin and Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: November 28, 2018
Read article

Opinion

Buenos Aires summit is a good place to start fighting back against destructive unilateralism

Ten years after the G20 proved its effectiveness in dealing with the global financial crisis, it needs to step up its efforts to overcome a political crisis, fuelled by destructive unilateralism, that threatens international governance on trade, investment and tax.

By: Uri Dadush, Axel Berger, Andreas Freytag, Simon J Evenett, Christian von Haldenwang, Ricardo Meléndez-Ortiz, Raul Ochoa, Agustin Redonda and Karl P Sauvant Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: November 28, 2018
Load more posts