Opinion

人民幣國際化需要政策導向,更需要建立信心

人民幣國際化對於提升中國軟實力、降低匯率風險、有效利用中國龐大的外匯儲備、推動跨境貿易和投資具有重要意義;但真正的問題在於人民幣國際化迄今取得了多大進展。

By: Date: June 22, 2018 Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation

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2018年對人民幣國際化來說是特殊的一年:這不僅是香港人民幣離岸中心成立15周年,也是人民幣原油期貨在上海上市交易和A股納入MSCI的一年。人民幣國際化對於提升中國軟實力、降低匯率風險、有效利用中國龐大的外匯儲備、推動跨境貿易和投資具有重要意義;但真正的問題在於人民幣國際化迄今取得了多大進展。

雖然新聞版面上充斥著人民幣將很快將取代美元成為主要國際貨幣的消息,但實際情況是,2015年8月匯率改革以來的兩年間,人民幣國際化進程止步不前,且前路漫漫。2016年將人民幣納入SDR是過去幾年人民幣作為官方計價貨幣發展的里程碑,但這更多是象徵性地推動人民幣的國際使用,目前尚未有官方貨幣正式與人民幣掛勾。

我們首先看看去年的發展情況。人民幣作為國際貨幣的最主要用途是交換媒介。然而,自2016年以來,人民幣結算的貿易總量明顯下降,且至今沒有明顯回升跡象。而國際貨幣在官方領域的使用以雙邊貨幣互換為主,目前人民幣的貨幣互換總量達到3萬億元以上,迄今為止最大規模的協議是與香港簽署的4000億元人民幣港幣互換。好消息是2017年年中以來,人民幣形式下的對內和對外直接投資回升。雖然佔總量的比例仍然很小,海外投資者持有的人民幣股票和債券總量也有所增加。

展望未來,政府政策應該會繼續支持人民幣走出國門。人民幣原油期貨顯示了中國石油公司提高在國際原油市場議價能力的願景。另外,中國跨境銀行間支付系統(CIPS)於2018年5月啟動旨在覆蓋所有時區和市場的第二階段,將大大推動人民幣跨境支付。預計A股納入MSCI和債券納入彭博巴克萊全球綜合指數等最新發展也將吸引資本流入在岸市場

正如上述發展所示,中國正在努力提高人民幣資產的吸引力,並降低相關交易成本。股票和債券互聯的成功似乎提供了中國在封閉資本帳戶情況下開放資本流動控制管道的解決方案。然而,人民幣國際化的最終答案在於信心,這也是其面臨的一個不可避免的挑戰。儘管中國政府可以在放鬆政策的情況下促進短期內資金流入和利用,特別是考慮到中國資產的經濟規模,中國資產的外資持股比例顯然太小,但吸引真正的外資流入並促進人民幣的國際化用途需要更加市場化的方法。隨著地緣政治風險的加劇,人民幣國際化的前路只會變得更加複雜。人民幣國際化將需要放鬆資本管制,這推動可能會加強中國的軟實力,但同時也意味著中國將受到更多的外部波動的衝擊。


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