Opinion

內地的海外併購未見放緩,且今年或飆升

在全球金融危机之后,并购一直是中国“走出去”的重要战略之一。 但是,一些中国海外投资没有遵循政府追求的战略目标,而是纯粹追求自己的经济利益。

By: Date: July 27, 2018 Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation

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在全球金融危機後,併購一直是中國「走出去」的重要戰略之一。為了應對結構性放緩的中國經濟增長和更低的資產回報率,中國企業一直熱衷於尋求海外投資機會。官方資料顯示2016年是中國成為世界上最大的外國直接投資者的高峰年。然而在2017年中國企業快速擴張的步伐遇到了意外的阻礙。在此基礎上,市場預計2018年也會出現類似趨勢。我們認為今年中國的跨國併購可能會高於2017年的預期,並且有理由相信大規模的併購將繼續進行。

除官方資料外,國內外的因素可以在一定程度上解釋中國2017年海外併購相對放緩的原因。在國際方面,大多數中國政府支持的併購遭到了美國政府的強烈反對,同時在較小程度上遇到了歐盟的反對。此外,中國內部對海外投資的擔憂加劇。在「走出去」的戰略旗幟下,有些中國的海外投資並未遵循政府追求的戰略目標,而是尋求純粹的自身經濟利益,並試圖將國內資產轉移至國外,主要集中在娛樂、酒店等所謂的非戰略性行業。然而這些舉措進一步加劇人民幣貶值,並且給中國金融市場帶來了不確定性。作為補救措施,中國政府最終決定採取一系列方式打擊海外併購以管制資本。換而言之,中國當局選擇了打擊某些特定類型的海外收購,而不是採用自2015年以來適用性更廣泛的更嚴格的資本管制。

但是當我們逐步研究併購中的每一單交易時,特別是美國企業研究所提供的公共資料,顯示2017年中國的跨境收購急劇減少。中國官方對外直接投資的資料與更細程度劃分的資料來源的分歧恰恰說明中國企業的海外子公司在海外收購資產方面作用越來越大。這些交易並未記錄在官方資料中,甚至也沒有記錄在非公開的併購資料來源中。

總而言之,在2016年投資高峰期後,我們看到2017年海外併購的大幅調整。我們認為官方資料的下降,也就是現有的公開併購資料表明中國政府嚴格限制資本出國,以及越來越嚴格的東道國國家的審查,特別是美國。中國企業依然保持在海外購買資產的興趣。事實上,中國正面臨經濟增長緩慢,持續減速,資產回報率持續低迷的現狀。我們預計黯淡的經濟增長前景,微薄的資產回報都將驅使中國的海外併購將在2018年續寫。

 


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