Podcast

Deep Focus: Consequences of European Central Bank forecasting errors

Bruegel senior scholar Zsolt Darvas speaks about his review of systematic errors in ECB forecasting, in another instalment of the Deep Focus podcast on 'The Sound of Economics' channel

By: Date: December 12, 2018 Topic: Uncategorized

In this episode of the Deep Focus, Sean Gibson speaks with Bruegel senior scholar Zsolt Darvas about his research on European Central Bank forecasting.

Zsolt has analysed that, over the past five years, ECB forecasts have proven to be systematically incorrect: core inflation remained broadly stable at 1% despite the stubbornly predicted increase, while the unemployment rate fell faster than predicted.

Such forecast errors, which are also inconsistent with each other, raise serious doubts about the reliability of the ECB’s current forecast of accelerating core inflation, and necessitates a reflection on the inflation aim of the ECB.

You may also be interested in this blog post by Zsolt Darvas, which contains charts illustrating just how erroneous the ECB’s forecasting on inflation and unemployment has become in recent times.

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Podcast

Podcast

Backstage: Key policy positions of the Spitzenkandidaten

Giuseppe Porcaro hosts Bruegel director Guntram Wolff and visiting fellow Rebecca Christie to reflect on the key policy positions taken by the candidates for the European Commission presidency, ahead of May's elections.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 21, 2019
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Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: Evolution of US-China relations amid trade-tariff conflict

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff and Bruegel fellow Uri Dadush welcome William Alan Reinsch, senior adviser and Scholl chair in international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for a discussion of how China-US relations are developing in the context of unfolding trade war.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 14, 2019
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Podcast

Podcast

Deep Focus: Reforming and rejuvenating Russia’s economy

Bruegel fellow Marek Dabrowski talks to Sean Gibson about the underlying causes of Russia's slow emergence from economic crisis, in an episode of the Deep Focus podcast series.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 9, 2019
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Podcast

Podcast

Backstage: The EU financial services landscape after Brexit

Bruegel fellows Rebecca Christie and Nicolas Véron discuss how the map of the EU's financial services industry has begun to change, and how it might eventually settle.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: April 30, 2019
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Blog Post

Developing resilient bail-in capital

Europe’s largest banks have made progress in issuing bail-inable securities that shelter taxpayers from bank failures. But the now-finalised revision of the bank resolution directive and a new policy of the SRB will make requirements to issue such securities more onerous for other banks. In order to strengthen banking-system resilience, EU capital-market regulation should facilitate exposures of long-term institutional investors.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: April 29, 2019
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Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: Resuming the EU-US trade talks

Maria Demertzis sits down with Bruegel senior fellow André Sapir to break down the news, discussing the events leading up to the renewed EU-US trade talks, and the likely future course.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 23, 2019
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Podcast

Director's cut: EU-China partnership after the 21st EU-China summit

Guntram Wolff discusses with Alicia Garcia Herrero the results of the 21st EU-China Summit

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 12, 2019
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Podcast

Director’s Cut: How to make Industry 4.0 work for Europe

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff talks to Padmashree Gehl Sampath, a Berkman Klein fellow at Harvard University, on the consequences of ‘new manufacturing’ for European industrial policymaking.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: April 2, 2019
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Podcast

Director's Cut: China's place in the global trading system

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff and senior fellow André Sapir discuss how potential WTO reform could better accommodate China.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 28, 2019
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Podcast

Backstage: 5G deployment in Europe

This episode of 'The Sound of Economics' features Bruegel senior fellow J. Scott Marcus in conversation with Lise Fuhr, director general, European Telecommunications Network Operators' Association (ETNO).

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: March 21, 2019
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Opinion

China’s debt is still piling up – and the pile-up is getting faster

With looser monetary policy, China's policymakers hope to encourage banks to lend more to the private sector. This seems to imply a change from the deleveraging drive begun in mid-2017. Although this should be good news for China's growth in the short term, such a continued accumulation of debt cannot but imply deflationary pressures and a lower potential growth further down the road.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 19, 2019
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Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: The case for a legislative remedy for recessions

Bruegel's Maria Demertzis welcomes Yale Law School professor Yair Listokin to this Director's Cut of 'The Sound of Economics', to discuss how law might be deployed as a macroeconomic tool to counter financial crisis.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 12, 2019
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