Podcast

Director’s Cut: The economics of no-deal Brexit

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff is joined by senior fellow Zsolt Darvas to rake through the possibilities and probabilities inherent in a no-deal Brexit scenario, covering trade, the Irish border, citizens' rights and the EU budget.

By: Date: January 16, 2019 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Bruegel senior fellow Zsolt Darvas joins Guntram Wolff for this Director’s Cut, to discuss the economic fall-out of a no-deal Brexit.

While the UK remains without an agreement on the nature of its relationship with the EU beyond March 29th 2019, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit – and its bundle of complex permutations for each sector – is still on the table.

What would a WTO-based trade relationship between the EU and the UK look like in reality? Beneath surface-level tariffs, the value chains that would be broken by a hard border in the English Channel could have far-reaching consequences. And in Ireland, the more innovative border solutions remain mostly unsubstantiated, and at the very least would require a long implementation period – the time for which has long since passed.

A no-deal Brexit also has implications for the EU budget. Our calculations specify the gap to be filled if the UK were to stop contributing immediately, as well as the spread of the additional burden across the EU’s member countries.

For further reading on this subject, consider Guntram Wolff’s Policy Contribution on how well prepared the EU might be for a no-deal Brexit scenario, as well as Zsolt Darvas’ full breakdown of the implications for the EU budget of the UK ‘crashing out’ of the union.

View comments
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Apr
29
12:30

The emerging new geography of financial centers in Europe

What shape is the new financial continent of Europe?

Speakers: Rebecca Christie, Valerie Herzberg, Nicolas Véron and William Wright Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director's cut: EU-China partnership after the 21st EU-China summit

Guntram Wolff discusses with Alicia Garcia Herrero the results of the 21st EU-China Summit

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 12, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director’s Cut: How to make Industry 4.0 work for Europe

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff talks to Padmashree Gehl Sampath, a Berkman Klein fellow at Harvard University, on the consequences of ‘new manufacturing’ for European industrial policymaking.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: April 2, 2019
Read article More on this topic

Opinion

Brexit: When in doubt, slow down

Uncertainty over Brexit remains high despite looming deadlines. Here, the authors argue that the UK should take the necessary steps to make time to build consensus around the final shape of Brexit, and that the UK population should be consulted.

By: Maria Demertzis and Nicola Viegi Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 29, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: China's place in the global trading system

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff and senior fellow André Sapir discuss how potential WTO reform could better accommodate China.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 28, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

The shadow of Brexit: Guessing the economic damage to the UK

Under a set of assumptions, this post concludes that UK real income and investment would have been 4% and 6% larger respectively had it not been for the shock of the Brexit referendum result. With somewhat audacious assumptions, the damages already incurred can be scaled up to guess the negative macroeconomic consequence of each of the three possible Brexit outcomes: no-deal, deal or no Brexit.

By: Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 21, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Backstage: 5G deployment in Europe

This episode of 'The Sound of Economics' features Bruegel senior fellow J. Scott Marcus in conversation with Lise Fuhr, director general, European Telecommunications Network Operators' Association (ETNO).

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: March 21, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: The case for a legislative remedy for recessions

Bruegel's Maria Demertzis welcomes Yale Law School professor Yair Listokin to this Director's Cut of 'The Sound of Economics', to discuss how law might be deployed as a macroeconomic tool to counter financial crisis.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 12, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Backstage: Reforming the European asylum system

This episode of 'The Sound of Economics' features Bruegel visiting fellow Elina Ribakova in conversation with Marc-Olivier Padis and Jean-Paul Tran Thiet about the reform of the Common European Asylum System (CEAS).

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 7, 2019
Read article More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Backstage: The next decade of European energy transition

This episode of 'The Sound of Economics' features Bruegel research fellow Simone Tagliapietra in conversation with Sir Philip Lowe and Alberto Pototschnig about the progress of the European energy transition as we prepare to enter the third decade of the 21st century.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 26, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Deep Focus: A greener monetary policy approach for the ECB

Bruegel fellow Dirk Schoenmaker walks Sean Gibson and 'The Sound of Economics' listeners through his latest working paper, focusing on how to make monetary policy in Europe more climate-friendly

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 21, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: Balancing free trade with national security interests

In this episode of Director's Cut, Stephanie Segal of CSIS joins Bruegel's Guntram Wolff and Maria Demertzis for a conversation about the tension between free trade and national security issues, and the emerging threats to multilateralism.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: February 19, 2019
Load more posts