Non resident scholars

Jérémie Cohen-Setton

Jérémie Cohen-Setton

Non Resident Fellow

Twitter: @JCSBruegel

Jérémie Cohen-Setton is a PhD candidate in Economics at U.C. Berkeley and a summer associate intern at Goldman Sachs Global Economic Research. He was previously an economist at HM Treasury where his work focused on the preparation of the London Summit. Jérémie also worked at Bruegel in 2007 after graduating from the Paris School of Economics.

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Jérémie Cohen-Setton

Blaming the Fed for the Great Recession

What’s at stake: Following an article in the New York Times by David Beckworth and Ramesh Ponnuru, the conversation on the blogosphere was dominated this week by the question of whether the Fed actually caused the Great Recession. While not mainstream, this narrative recently received a boost as Ted Cruz, a Republican candidate for the White House, championed it.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 1, 2016
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Jérémie Cohen-Setton

Oil and stock prices

What’s at stake: The recent positive link between oil and stock prices has been puzzling for most observers. While a decrease in the price of oil was traditionally seen as a net positive for oil importing countries such as the United States, the concurrent declines in the price of oil and the US stock market suggest that the relationship may be different in the current environment.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 25, 2016
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Jérémie Cohen-Setton

The use of models by policymakers

What’s at stake: The latest discussions on the blogosphere have been dominated by a back and forth trialogue between Larry Summers, Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong on the appropriate use of models as policy guides. While they all agree that the Fed’s decision to raise rates was a mistake, they disagree on the intellectual reasons behind it.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 11, 2016
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Jérémie Cohen-Setton

Finland and asymmetric shocks

What’s at stake: Finland exemplifies the difficulty of dealing with asymmetric shocks within a Monetary Union as the Finnish economy has struggled to recover from a series of idiosyncratic shocks – the decline of Nokia, the obsolescence of the timber industry, and the fallout of the Russian crisis.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 21, 2015
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Jérémie Cohen-Setton

The predictability of political extremism

What’s at stake: The rise of the extreme right in the latest French election has mostly been treated as surprising or reflecting special circumstances like the November 13 Paris attacks. But a large literature linking extreme right votes to persisting depressed economic conditions suggests that longer run factors are at play.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 14, 2015
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Jérémie Cohen-Setton

The puzzle of technical dis-employment and productivity slowdown

What’s at stake: Larry Summers made an important speech a few weeks ago at a Peterson Institute conference on the productivity slowdown arguing it is hard to see how recent technical change could both be a major source of dis-employment and not be associated with productivity improvement.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 7, 2015
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Jérémie Cohen-Setton

Unlearning economic paradigms

What’s at stake: Both the crisis, its aftermath, and the empirical econ revolution have changed our understanding of economics. Conventional wisdoms about the supply side of the economy, the length of the short run, or the international adjustment process are all being challenged. Even conventional microeconomic wisdoms about the role of minimum wages and welfare programs are being challenged by new data raising questions about how economics should be taught and used to guide policymaking.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 30, 2015
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Jérémie Cohen-Setton

The persistence of slow growth

What’s at stake: The persistence of slow economic growth in the Great Recession has been puzzling. Two recent papers have tried to present a coherent framework for understanding this phenomenon. The first paper argues that we may have underestimated the importance of hysterisis effects. The second paper argues the global safe asset shortage cannot be resolved by lower world interest rates once we reach the zero lower bound. It is instead dissipated by a world recession that rebalances global asset markets.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: November 16, 2015
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Jérémie Cohen-Setton

The uncertain decline of the natural rate of interest

What’s at stake: Controversies over whether and by how much the natural rate of interest – the rate compatible with full employment and stable prices – has declined in the past few years has shaped views about the pace and extent to which central banks should normalize policy rates.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 9, 2015
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Jérémie Cohen-Setton

QE and investment

What’s at stake: Quantitative Easing has been criticized for generating inflation risks, financial stability risks, and distributional risks. The newest criticism from Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor, and the 2001 Nobel Prize laureate Michael Spence is that QE actually reduced investment!

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: November 2, 2015
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Jérémie Cohen-Setton

The disconnect between exchange rates and trade

What’s at stake: The failure of Abenomics to boost net exports despite the large currency depreciation has raised the question of a possible more general disconnect between exchange rates and trade, namely because of the international fragmentation of production.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Date: October 12, 2015
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Jérémie Cohen-Setton

The political economy of rate hike-ism

What’s at stake: The banking industry response to the Fed’s decision not to hike rates has led bloggers pondered about why bankers are pushing for higher rates in a low inflation environment and whether it actually goes against their long term interests.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: October 5, 2015
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