Scholars

Zsolt Darvas

Zsolt Darvas

Senior Fellow

Expertise: Macroeconomics, international economics, central banking and time series analysis. CV: Download CV

Zsolt Darvas, a Hungarian citizen, joined Bruegel as a Visiting Fellow in September 2008 and continued his work at Bruegel as a Research Fellow from January 2009, before being appointed Senior Fellow from September 2013. He is also a Research Fellow at the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Associate Professor at the Corvinus University of Budapest.

From 2005 to 2008, he was the Research Advisor of the Argenta Financial Research Group in Budapest. Before that, he worked at the research unit of the Central Bank of Hungary (1994-2005) where he served as Deputy Head.

Zsolt holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Corvinus University of Budapest where he teaches courses in Econometrics but also at other institutions since 1994. His research interests include macroeconomics, international economics, central banking and time series analysis.

Declaration of interests 2012

Declaration of interests 2013

Declaration of interests 2014

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External Publication

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

The purpose of our report is to provide a comprehensive overview of capital movements in Europe in a global context.

By: Zsolt Darvas, Pia Hüttl, Silvia Merler and Thomas Walsh Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 28, 2016
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Upcoming Event

3 
Mar
2016
12:30

A fiscal framework for the EU

Doubts about the fiscal sustainability of various member states have lead Europe to enact greater coordination and surveillance. But are these policies effective? And what fiscal framework can best support Europe back to growth?

Speakers: Grégory Claeys, Zsolt Darvas, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, Kathrin Muehlbronner and Lucio Pench Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
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Blog Post

Zsolt Darvas
Pia Hüttl

Oil prices and inflation expectations

The price of crude oil has fallen even further in recent weeks, as have financial market measures of inflation expectations in the euro area, the US and the UK. We show that low oil prices drag down inflation expectations up to 5-6 years ahead, which is puzzlingly long and suggests that financial market based inflation expectations should be assessed cautiously.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Pia Hüttl Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 21, 2016
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Blog Post

Zsolt Darvas

Has ECB QE lifted inflation?

Euro-area headline inflation has remained close to zero since the ECB stepped up its quantitative easing programmes in early 2015, but this does not mean that QE has been ineffective: core inflation and its adjusted version for the indirect effects of low oil prices have steadily increased throughout 2015.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 12, 2016
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Blog Post

Zsolt Darvas

Real exchange rates in conflict zones

Several countries experiencing conflict have been able to maintain a stable nominal exchange rate and thereby their real exchange rates were either stable or even increased due to high inflation. In contrast, nominal exchange rates have recently crashed in Syria, Ukraine and Russia, but high inflation has partially or fully counteracted its impact on the real exchange rate.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 26, 2015
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Blog Post

Zsolt Darvas
Alvaro Leandro

Naughty students or the wrong school: why is the European Semester proving ineffective?

The fundamental problem of economic policy coordination in the EU is that national policymakers are accountable to their national parliaments and focus on national interests, which in many cases differ widely in different member states. It is therefore not all that surprising that economic policy coordination in the EU hardly works.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Alvaro Leandro Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 18, 2015
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Policy Contribution

The limitations of policy coordination in the euro area under the European SemesterEuropean Parliament

The limitations of policy coordination in the euro area under the European Semester

This paper assesses economic policy coordination in the euro area under the European Semester. Despite the collective decision to create this new system of policy coordination, this paper shows that the European Semester has been rather ineffective.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Alvaro Leandro Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Parliamentary Testimonies Date: November 12, 2015
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Working Paper

Filling the gap: open economy considerations for more reliable potential output estimates

Filling the gap: open economy considerations for more reliable potential output estimates

This paper proposes a novel structural model to estimate the equilibrium level of output and reports results for 45 countries. The model is conceptually more appropriate than existing methods by incorporating open economy considerations, which are completely missing from the models of the European Commission, IMF and OECD.

By: Zsolt Darvas and András Simon Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 22, 2015
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