Scholars

Zsolt Darvas

Zsolt Darvas

Senior Fellow

Expertise: Macroeconomics, international economics, central banking and time series analysis. CV: Download CV

Zsolt Darvas, a Hungarian citizen, joined Bruegel as a Visiting Fellow in September 2008 and continued his work at Bruegel as a Research Fellow from January 2009, before being appointed Senior Fellow from September 2013. He is also a Research Fellow at the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Associate Professor at the Corvinus University of Budapest.

From 2005 to 2008, he was the Research Advisor of the Argenta Financial Research Group in Budapest. Before that, he worked at the research unit of the Central Bank of Hungary (1994-2005) where he served as Deputy Head.

Zsolt holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Corvinus University of Budapest where he teaches courses in Econometrics but also at other institutions since 1994. His research interests include macroeconomics, international economics, central banking and time series analysis.

Declaration of interests 2012

Declaration of interests 2013

Declaration of interests 2014

Declaration of interests 2015

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Zsolt Darvas

Single market access from outside the EU: three key prerequisites

In relative terms, Norway’s current net financial contribution to the EU is similar to the UK’s. Switzerland and Liechtenstein pay surprisingly little, while Iceland is a net beneficiary. Relative to their population, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein received about twice as large an inflow of EU immigrants as the UK. These countries also have to adopt the vast majority of EU regulation to gain access to the single market.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 19, 2016
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Upcoming Event

Sep
6-7
09:30

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2016

The Annual Meetings are a high point in Bruegel's calendar.

Speakers: Michel Barnier, Joachim Bitterlich, Arnoud Boot, Albert Bravo-Biosca, Elmar Brok, Tom Carver, Jon Cunliffe, Zsolt Darvas, Paulina Dejmek-Hack, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Alicia García-Herrero, Sylvie Goulard, Charles Grant, Dominique Guellec, Connie Hedegaard, Brigitte Knopf, Pascal Lamy, Lawrence J. Lau, Matthew Lobner, Robert Madelin, Sylvie Matherat, Erik F. Nielsen, Barbara Novick, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Romano Prodi, Olli Rehn, Carmen M. Reinhart, Odile Renaud-Basso, André Sapir, Dirk Schoenmaker, Ludger Schuknecht, Egon Schulz, Maroš Šefčovič, Jeremy Shapiro, Scott Stern, Jean-Claude Trichet, Laszlo Varro, Nicolas Véron, Reinhilde Veugelers, Helen Wallace, Guntram B. Wolff and Georg Zachmann Location: Autoworld, Brussels, Belgium
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Zsolt Darvas

Brexit vote boosts case for inclusive growth

In the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum, income inequality and poverty boosted ‘leave’ votes, in addition to geographical differences and larger shares of uneducated and older people in UK regions, according to my regression analysis. The actual presence of immigrants did not have a significant effect on the results. Disadvantaged people voted in smaller proportions. Turnout was also low among the young and residents of Scotland, Northern Ireland and London, who were more likely to vote ‘remain’.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 13, 2016
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Zsolt Darvas

No Lehman moment on currency markets after Brexit vote

While the pound sterling has lost a lot of its value right after the Brexit vote, from a historical perspective neither the fall of the exchange rate, nor its current level, is unprecedented. The situation is not as severe as it was in the aftermath the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 30, 2016
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Zsolt Darvas
Alvaro Leandro

Implementation of European Semester recommendations worsens further

Economic policy coordination in the EU hardly works: the implementation of economic policy recommendations made in the context of the European Semester was modest in 2011, and has deteriorated in each year since then.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Alvaro Leandro Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 15, 2016
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Zsolt Darvas

What is the age profile of UK immigrants?

The bulk of immigrants to the UK from 2008-2014 were 20-30 years old, and many of them are in work. But as UK unemployment is close to a historical low since 1975, it is hard to see how immigrants have taken away the jobs of natives on a large scale.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 8, 2016
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Zsolt Darvas
Pia Hüttl

Is Greek public debt unsustainable?

Greek public debt does not look sustainable if the country has to return to market borrowing at the end of the third bail-out programme, but could be sustainable if preferential ESM funding continues in the long-term. Our advice is to offer hope for Greece in the form of delayed fiscal adjustment toward a target of 2.5% of GDP primary balance and adopt various measures to ease the debt burden, for the benefit of both Greece and its official lenders.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Pia Hüttl Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 7, 2016
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Opinion

Grégory Claeys
Zsolt Darvas

How to reform EU fiscal rules

The current inefficient European fiscal framework should be replaced with a system based on rules that are more conducive to the two objectives of public debt sustainability and fiscal stabilisation.

By: Grégory Claeys and Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: April 12, 2016
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Zsolt Darvas

The structural budget balance limbo

A key indicator in the EU’s fiscal framework is the structural budget balance, but estimates of the indicator by the European Commission, IMF and OECD are revised a lot from one year to the next, sparking concerns among some EU finance ministers.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: April 7, 2016
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Policy Contribution

A proposal to revive the European Fiscal Framework

A proposal to revive the European Fiscal Framework

The current European fiscal framework is inefficient. It should be replaced with a system based on rules more suited to the two core objectives: public debt sustainability and fiscal stabilisation. The rules should be more transparent and easier to implement. These reforms would promote greater compliance.

By: Grégory Claeys, Zsolt Darvas and Alvaro Leandro Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 29, 2016
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