Scholars

Zsolt Darvas

Zsolt Darvas

Senior Fellow

Expertise: Macroeconomics, international economics, central banking and time series analysis. CV: Download CV

Zsolt Darvas, a Hungarian citizen, joined Bruegel as a Visiting Fellow in September 2008 and continued his work at Bruegel as a Research Fellow from January 2009, before being appointed Senior Fellow from September 2013. He is also a Research Fellow at the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Associate Professor at the Corvinus University of Budapest.

From 2005 to 2008, he was the Research Advisor of the Argenta Financial Research Group in Budapest. Before that, he worked at the research unit of the Central Bank of Hungary (1994-2005) where he served as Deputy Head.

Zsolt holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Corvinus University of Budapest where he teaches courses in Econometrics but also at other institutions since 1994. His research interests include macroeconomics, international economics, central banking and time series analysis.

Declaration of interests 2012

Declaration of interests 2013

Declaration of interests 2014

Declaration of interests 2015

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Blog Post

Zsolt Darvas
Pia Hüttl

Is Greek public debt unsustainable?

Greek public debt does not look sustainable if the country has to return to market borrowing at the end of the third bail-out programme, but could be sustainable if preferential ESM funding continues in the long-term. Our advice is to offer hope for Greece in the form of delayed fiscal adjustment toward a target of 2.5% of GDP primary balance and adopt various measures to ease the debt burden, for the benefit of both Greece and its official lenders.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Pia Hüttl Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 7, 2016
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Opinion

Grégory Claeys
Zsolt Darvas

How to reform EU fiscal rules

The current inefficient European fiscal framework should be replaced with a system based on rules that are more conducive to the two objectives of public debt sustainability and fiscal stabilisation.

By: Grégory Claeys and Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: April 12, 2016
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Blog Post

Zsolt Darvas

The structural budget balance limbo

A key indicator in the EU’s fiscal framework is the structural budget balance, but estimates of the indicator by the European Commission, IMF and OECD are revised a lot from one year to the next, sparking concerns among some EU finance ministers.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: April 7, 2016
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Policy Contribution

A proposal to revive the European Fiscal Framework

A proposal to revive the European Fiscal Framework

The current European fiscal framework is inefficient. It should be replaced with a system based on rules more suited to the two core objectives: public debt sustainability and fiscal stabilisation. The rules should be more transparent and easier to implement. These reforms would promote greater compliance.

By: Grégory Claeys, Zsolt Darvas and Alvaro Leandro Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 29, 2016
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Blog Post

Elena Vaccarino
Zsolt Darvas

"Social dumping" and posted workers: a new clash within the EU

European companies often post employees to another EU country to work there temporarily. These ‘posted workers’ must be paid at least the minimum wage of the host country, yet their wages can be lower than the wages of local workers. Now proposals for ‘the same pay for the same work at the same place’ are creating new clashes between EU countries.

By: Elena Vaccarino and Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 7, 2016
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External Publication

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

The purpose of our report is to provide a comprehensive overview of capital movements in Europe in a global context.

By: Zsolt Darvas, Pia Hüttl, Silvia Merler and Thomas Walsh Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 28, 2016
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Blog Post

Zsolt Darvas
Pia Hüttl

Oil prices and inflation expectations

The price of crude oil has fallen even further in recent weeks, as have financial market measures of inflation expectations in the euro area, the US and the UK. We show that low oil prices drag down inflation expectations up to 5-6 years ahead, which is puzzlingly long and suggests that financial market based inflation expectations should be assessed cautiously.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Pia Hüttl Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 21, 2016
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Blog Post

Zsolt Darvas

Has ECB QE lifted inflation?

Euro-area headline inflation has remained close to zero since the ECB stepped up its quantitative easing programmes in early 2015, but this does not mean that QE has been ineffective: core inflation and its adjusted version for the indirect effects of low oil prices have steadily increased throughout 2015.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 12, 2016
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Blog Post

Zsolt Darvas

Real exchange rates in conflict zones

Several countries experiencing conflict have been able to maintain a stable nominal exchange rate and thereby their real exchange rates were either stable or even increased due to high inflation. In contrast, nominal exchange rates have recently crashed in Syria, Ukraine and Russia, but high inflation has partially or fully counteracted its impact on the real exchange rate.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 26, 2015
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Blog Post

Zsolt Darvas
Alvaro Leandro

Naughty students or the wrong school: why is the European Semester proving ineffective?

The fundamental problem of economic policy coordination in the EU is that national policymakers are accountable to their national parliaments and focus on national interests, which in many cases differ widely in different member states. It is therefore not all that surprising that economic policy coordination in the EU hardly works.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Alvaro Leandro Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 18, 2015
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