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Growth in Spain again exceeded expectations this year, and bank deleveraging appears to have reached an end. Addressing non-performing loans was a precondition for recovery, and it required comprehensive financial sector reform.
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What’s at stake: this question should probably be re-formulated as “what’s NOT at stake?” On Tuesday 8 November, the US elected Donald Trump as its next President. Several aspects of Trump’s political and economic agenda appear extreme (we have previously focused on his stance on trade). After the initial shock, we review economists’ opinions on what has happened and what may happen. We will be coming back to this topic regularly.
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Italians are being called to the ballot boxes on 4 December to either confirm or reject Constitutional amendments put forward by the government. Alessio Terzi constructed a probabilistic model based on poll data to assess the likelihood of such an event.
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After Brexit, several major cities across the EU27 are looking to take over London's financial activity. While there are plenty of benefits in hosting a major financial centre, it also comes with significant risks and responsibilities.
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Public discourse on social media was already in favour of Brexit by early summer 2015, and stayed that way until the referendum. An analysis of more than 890 000 tweets posted since 2012 reveals clear trends in the mood of online discussion. Our new methodology captures something that betting odds and opinion polls were not able to reveal – but will it be useful in future elections?
2 hours ago
We spoke to Prof. Carmen Reinhart from @Kennedy_School about indebtedness & #debt resolution. >> #Podcast… https://t.co/v9fAts2abT
2 hours ago
Couldn't make it to one of our recent events? No worries, audio recordings are available on our SoundCloud account… https://t.co/gcq7AtDGnG
4 hours ago
#PODCAST | #Innovation is key to fuel the economy, but how do we get from smart ideas to economic #growth?… https://t.co/8d4lSxFRhg
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Speech by Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis at Bruegel on 15 November 2016
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It is too early to say what the Trump administration’s trade policy will look like – but a total cut-off from Asian partners is unlikely. It would harm the US economy, and offer China even more scope to cement its position in Asia. Nevertheless, with TPP and TTIP both looking unlikely, the EU should move fast to build relationships with China and ASEAN countries.
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US President-Elect Donald Trump made critical statements about low European defence spending during the election campaign - signaling an expectation that Europe should contribute more to the cost of its security. Indeed, most European NATO members have spending well below the 2% target that NATO membership entails. Reaching this target could cost the EU27 NATO members 96 billion USD per year.
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What’s at stake: last week, the UK High Court ruled that the triggering of Article 50 - and therefore the Brexit process - should involve the UK Parliament. The Government will appeal the decision but this has created a new wave of uncertainty about the timing of Brexit, and on what this involvement can mean in practice. We review the different opinions.
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Did EU funds play an important role in limiting the hit of the crisis on regional income?
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Our early econometric analysis shows that Donald Trump performed more strongly in states with higher income inequality. He also did better in states with a higher share of less-educated, older, US-born and non-Hispanic voters.
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The new Trump presidency might now signal a U-turn in the United States’ international climate policies.
