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Will TTIP survive Brexit?

There are concerns that the UK’s decision to leave the EU may jeopardise future TTIP negotiations. Some fear Brexit could make the EU a less attractive trade partner for the US. However, it seems that the new US administration as well as upcoming elections in Germany and France could end up posing bigger threats to the trade agreement than Brexit.

By: Geethanjali Nataraj Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 27, 2016
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Opinion

Alicia García-Herrero

‘Old China’ bad, ‘New China’ good: Growing divergence in Chinese corporate health

Divergence in debt levels and corporate health in China is growing, with many state-owned companies still stuck in the past and new industries such as tourism and healthcare overtaking the old ones. While fiscal and monetary stimulus may temporarily cover up the problems of companies in the old industries, a restructuring of these sectors seems inevitable.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 26, 2016
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Zsolt Darvas

Single market access from outside the EU: three key prerequisites

In relative terms, Norway’s current net financial contribution to the EU is similar to the UK’s. Switzerland and Liechtenstein pay surprisingly little, while Iceland is a net beneficiary. Relative to their population, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein received about twice as large an inflow of EU immigrants as the UK. These countries also have to adopt the vast majority of EU regulation to gain access to the single market.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 19, 2016
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Opinion

Guntram B. Wolff

The difficulties of defining EU-UK economic relations

Negotiations on the UK's exit from the EU have not yet begun, but the UK leadership needs to find a balance between single market access and free movement. There are also tensions between the demands of voters and what EU partners can plausibly agree. Guntram Wolff doubts the likelihood of a Norway- or Switzerland-style deals, and urges caution on all sides.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 19, 2016
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Alicia García-Herrero
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Assessing China’s post-Brexit globalisation strategy

As the world comes to terms with the result of the UK's Brexit referendum, what will it mean for China? The authors suggest that the short-term impact will be smaller for China than for other regions. But there are important considerations further ahead.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 19, 2016

8 hours ago

Reasons why unemployment in #Spain is still so high https://t.co/k1kxz8GKyT https://t.co/7PnwbnxDTg

10 hours ago

Wage inequality between firms, rather than within firms, explains evolution of inequality>> https://t.co/zsNsvRyQm1 https://t.co/5sLsPaZxBv

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Blog Post

Silvia Merler

Italy’s bail-in headache

Weakness in the Italian banking sector is a major concern for the euro area. Retail investors stand to lose out if BRRD bail-in rules are strictly applied, and many in Italy are seeking an exception for political reasons. However, Silvia Merler argues that this would set a dangerous precedent. She calls for an orderly bail-in, followed by compensation for investors mis-sold unsuitable products.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: July 19, 2016
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Opinion

Georg Zachmann

Nord Stream 2: a bad deal for Germany and Eastern Europe

Georg Zachmann argues that the Nord Stream 2 project is a danger to the European consensus on relations with Russia. What is more, it could undermine efforts to diversify Europe's gas supply and might risk higher prices for Eastern Europe.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: July 18, 2016
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Blog Post

Jérémie Cohen-Setton

Racial prejudice in police use of force

What’s at stake: This week was dominated by a new study by Roland Fryer exploring racial differences in police use of force. His counterintuitive result that blacks and Hispanics experience discrimination for all types of interaction involving force except for officer involved shootings provoked debate after the study was published on Monday.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 18, 2016
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Marek Dabrowski

Iran: from isolation to economic cooperation

With some sanctions temporarily lifted, now is the chance for Iran to reintegrate into the global economy and political system. But comprehensive economic and political reforms are needed.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 15, 2016
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Nicolas Véron

Italy’s banking problem is serious but can be fixed

Following the UK vote to exit the European Union, the fragility of the Italian banking system has come into the spotlight. The Economist described it as a “potentially more dangerous financial menace” than Brexit. This characterization is massively overblown. The policy and political challenges associated with Italian banks are complex but far from intractable, and need not become a systemic risk for the euro area.

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: July 14, 2016
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MariaDemertzis1 bw

Companies' continue to respond to the ECB's corporate sector purchase programme

After a sharp increase in corporate bond issuance following the ECB’s announcement in March this year, corporates continue to respond to the Corporate Sector Purchase Program.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: July 14, 2016
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Blog Post

Zsolt Darvas

Brexit vote boosts case for inclusive growth

In the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum, income inequality and poverty boosted ‘leave’ votes, in addition to geographical differences and larger shares of uneducated and older people in UK regions, according to my regression analysis. The actual presence of immigrants did not have a significant effect on the results. Disadvantaged people voted in smaller proportions. Turnout was also low among the young and residents of Scotland, Northern Ireland and London, who were more likely to vote ‘remain’.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 13, 2016
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