Past Event

Euro Monitor 2012: is the eurozone turning the corner?

For a while, in the late summer, it seemed that the gloom over Europe was beginning to lift. The ECB’s commitment to “do whatever it takes” and political progress towards enhanced fiscal and economic integration led to an extended period of calm on the financial markets. More recently, however, amid bickering over the details of […]

Date: November 27, 2012, 12:00 pm

For a while, in the late summer, it seemed that the gloom over Europe was beginning to lift. The ECB’s commitment to “do whatever it takes” and political progress towards enhanced fiscal and economic integration led to an extended period of calm on the financial markets.

More recently, however, amid bickering over the details of both the planned banking union as well as the integration roadmap, and over further aid for Greece, the crisis is threatening to flare up again.

The Euro Monitor 2012 shows that, behind the less pretty headlines, genuine progress is being made towards restoring the health of the eurozone economy. Competitiveness is on the rise, external imbalances are shrivelling fast, and fiscal rectitude is returning. The road ahead is still long and arduous, but an admirable distance towards a brighter future has already been travelled. Although many of the Euro Monitor indicators for 2012 still show the ravages of recession and austerity drives, there are also early signs of improvement, suggesting that the fruits of structural reforms are set to emerge in 2013 or 2014 at the latest. Encouragingly, problem countries such as Portugal, Spain and Greece managed to boost their overall rating.

About the Euro Monitor

Sustainable and balanced growth is essential if the credibility of the common currency is to be preserved. The Euro Monitor is a comprehensive set of indicators assessing the extent to which individual EMU member states are achieving balanced growth devoid of excessive imbalances, and thus contributing to the stability of the monetary union as a whole.

With the help of 15 indicators grouped into four categories, the Euro Monitor keeps track of the risks or opportunities the country-specific fundamentals pose for the eurozone as a whole. The four thematic categories are:

  • Fiscal sustainability
  • Competitiveness and domestic demand
  • Jobs, productivity and resource efficiency
  • Private and foreign debt

Please note that this event was held under the Chatham House Rule

Speakers

  • Michael Heise, Chief Economist, Allianz SE
  • discussant – Anne Bucher, Director at DG Ecfin, European Commission
  • discussant – André Sapir, Senior Fellow at Bruegel and Professor of Economics at ULB
  • chair – Zsolt Darvas, Research Fellow at Bruegel

Event materials

  • Event summary here
  • Euro Monitor 2012 here
  • Michael Heise’s presentation here

Practical details

Topics

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Blog Post

Pia Hüttl
Schoenmaker pic

European banking union: should the 'outs' join in?

To address coordination failures between national institutions regulating banks, we need supranational policies. Banking union encourages further integration of banks across borders, deepening the single market, and could also benefit countries outside the euro which have a high degree of cross-border banking.

By: Pia Hüttl and Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 4, 2016
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Policy Contribution

Should the ‘outs’ join the European banking union?

Should the ‘outs’ join the European banking union?

This paper analyses the banking linkages between the nine ‘outs’ and 19 ‘ins’ of the banking union. It finds that the out countries could profit from joining banking union, because it would provide a stable arrangement for managing financial stability.

By: Pia Hüttl and Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 4, 2016
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Opinion

Guntram B. Wolff

The economic consequences of Schengen

The president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, recently warned that “without Schengen and the free movement of workers, of citizens, the euro makes no sense.” And in fact, it is the single currency and the ability to travel freely without identity documents that most Europeans associate with the EU. So how does it really stand with Schengen and the euro?

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 2, 2016
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Blog Post

Jérémie Cohen-Setton

Blaming the Fed for the Great Recession

What’s at stake: Following an article in the New York Times by David Beckworth and Ramesh Ponnuru, the conversation on the blogosphere was dominated this week by the question of whether the Fed actually caused the Great Recession. While not mainstream, this narrative recently received a boost as Ted Cruz, a Republican candidate for the White House, championed it.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 1, 2016
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Opinion

Guntram B. Wolff

The fallout from the European refugee crisis

Of the 1.5 million refugees that reached the European Union last year, more than 1 million ended up in Germany, but the initially welcoming atmosphere has changed drastically.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 29, 2016
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External Publication

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

The purpose of our report is to provide a comprehensive overview of capital movements in Europe in a global context.

By: Zsolt Darvas, Pia Hüttl, Silvia Merler and Thomas Walsh Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 28, 2016
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Blueprint

Blueprint

Measuring competitiveness in Europe: resource allocation, granularity and trade

This new Bruegel Blueprint provides a differentiated understanding of growth, productivity and competitiveness and the important role public policy needs to play.

By: Carlo Altomonte and Gábor Békés Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 28, 2016
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Policy Brief

One market, two monies: the European Union and the United Kingdom

One market, two monies: the European Union and the United Kingdom

So far, having more than one currency in the EU has not undermined the single market. However, attempts to deepen integration in the banking, labour and capital markets might require governance integration that involves only euro-area countries. Safeguards are needed to protect the interest of the UK and other euro-outs.

By: André Sapir and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 28, 2016
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Blog Post

Silvia Merler

Bad banks and rude awakenings: Italian banks at a crossroads

Italian banks have recently come under market pressure, as investors seemed to have grown worried about the sector. This triggered a speed-up in the discussion between the Italian government and the European Commission about the creation of a “bad-bank”, on which a decision is reportedly due this week.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 26, 2016
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Blog Post

Jérémie Cohen-Setton

Oil and stock prices

What’s at stake: The recent positive link between oil and stock prices has been puzzling for most observers. While a decrease in the price of oil was traditionally seen as a net positive for oil importing countries such as the United States, the concurrent declines in the price of oil and the US stock market suggest that the relationship may be different in the current environment.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 25, 2016
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Past Event

Past Event

The Bank of England in Europe: Does EU membership constrain non-Euro central banks?

The ECB and its response to crises in the euro area have been in the spotlight recently. But how does EU membership affect the central banks of non-Euro member states? This question is especially pertinent in the UK, whose relationship with the EU is at a vital crossroads.

Speakers: Jon Cunliffe, Matt Holmes, Sheri Markose and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: January 22, 2016
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Blog Post

kang
ligthart
Ashoka Mody

The ECB and the Fed: a comparative narrative

Although the Great Recession was viewed as a US problem, the Eurozone was affected by it from the start. This column compares the monetary policy responses to the Crisis by the Fed and the ECB. It argues that the US approach has been much more aggressive and proactive. The ECB failed to provide stimulus when needed, and as a result the Eurozone might slip into a low-inflation trap.

By: Dae Woong Kang, Nick Ligthart and Ashoka Mody Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 21, 2016
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