Can manufacturing still be a driver for inclusive growth around the world? What European and national policies can foster inclusive growth in Europe? What is the situation in Spain and what can Spain learn from the global and European experiences?
On 31 May Bruegel is organising an event in Madrid that aims to take global, European and national perspectives to discuss the policy-relevant social and economic aspects of inclusive growth. The event will be hosted by Fundacion ICO and supported by funding from the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth.
In his keynote lecture Professor Robert Lawrence from the Harvard Kennedy School will take a global perspective to assess whether manufacturing can still be a driver of inclusive growth. While manufacturing has traditionally allowed workers without advanced degrees to earn middle class incomes, the share of manufacturing jobs has plunged in advanced countries, as well as not increasing sufficiently in emerging economies. This deindustrialization has arguably produced populist political reactions like Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. What are the structural forces that link manufacturing employment to inclusive economic growth in advanced and emerging economies?
A European perspective will be provided by Zsolt Darvas from Bruegel. With only seven percent of the world’s people but about half of its welfare payments, the European Union’s levels of inequality and absolute poverty are low in a global context. Nevertheless EU faces major social challenges and there are large differences between EU countries. Unemployment remains high in a number of member states, while the intergenerational divide between the young and the old has widened. Social mobility is weak, in particular in the more unequal economies of southern Europe, limiting opportunities for the children of poor and disadvantaged families. What European and national policies should foster inclusive growth?
The two presentations will be followed by a Spanish perspective from Federico Steinberg (El Cano Royal Institute) and a corporate perspective.
Welcome and introduction
Cristina Cabrera, Director, Fundación ICO
Keynote speech: Can manufacturing still be a driver of inclusive growth?
Robert Lawrence, Albert L. Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at Harvard Kennedy School and Senior Fellow at the MasterCard Center
Presentation: Inclusive growth in Europe
Zsolt Darvas, Senior Fellow
Federico Steinberg, Senior Analyst, Elcano Royal Institute
Additional speakers to be confirmed
Alejandra Kindelán, Head of Economic Research and Public Policy, Banco Santander
Director, Fundación ICO
Head of Economic Research and Public Policy, Banco Santander
Albert L. Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at Harvard Kennedy School and Senior Fellow at the MasterCard Center
Senior Analyst, Elcano Royal Institute
What’s at stake: at odds with the conventional wisdom of constant factor shares, the portion of national income accruing to labour has been trending downward in the last three decades. This phenomenon has been linked to globalisation as well as to the change in the technological landscape - particularly “robotisation”. We review the recent literature on this issue.
At this event the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, will speak about the global outlook and policy priorities, ahead of the 2017 IMF Spring Meetings
Curtain raiser speech ahead of the 2017 IMF Spring Meetings delivered at Bruegel by the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund.
Now more than ever, the EU needs to address concerns about the significant decline in productivity growth and the increasing perception of unfairness. Completing the single market would unlock the EU's growth potential. At the same time, the EU should empower member states to fight inequality by helping them better distribute the gains arising from economic integration.
Inclusive growth has been the exception globally, and will be a greater challenge in the future. Achieving it has to be central to our agenda, but requires rethinking and reprioritisation.
The ‘poverty’ target set by the European Commission aims to lift “over 20 million people out of poverty” between 2008 and 2020 in the EU27. Progress to date against this target has been disappointing. Why is it so hard to reach the Europe 2020 ‘poverty’ target? What does the poverty indicator actually measure?
Is technological progress behind growing income inequality? No, according to Zsolt Darvas, who argues that redistribution and the regulation of certain professions were more important factors.
How inclusive is growth in transition countries? Post-communist countries are becoming more prosperous but many people are being left behind, risking setbacks in political and economic development.
The properly measured EU-wide Gini coefficient of disposable income inequality shows that inequality in the EU as whole declined in 1994-2008, after which it remained broadly stable. However, within the EU, there are large differences in income inequality which require policy action.
Our early econometric analysis shows that Donald Trump performed more strongly in states with higher income inequality. He also did better in states with a higher share of less-educated, older, US-born and non-Hispanic voters.
In this Working Paper, Zsolt Darvas estimates the global and regional distribution of income and calculates statistics of global and regional income inequality.
Many Europeans have felt the effects of inequality due to the economic and financial crisis and stagnation. How can inequalities be tackled and which policies can support inclusive growth?