At this January's Davos meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced to a surprised audience that China would be the world’s new champion of globalisation. Bruegel scholar Marek Dabrowski agrees that a functioning global trade system is in China's interest.
President Trump has so far been softer on China than his campaign promises predicted. This is welcome. However, the EU has a lot at stake, and should be ready to steer a tactical course between its two main trade partners.
What’s at stake: A number of recent contributions accuse China of acquiring technology from abroad without respecting international rules. This blog reviews the current debate that focuses on China’s supposed push to modernise its industry and the challenges for advanced economies. By leapfrogging to high-tech manufacturing products, the strategy threatens the competitive advantage of the US and the EU. The international rules-based order is put to a test facing large-scale government support to high-value added sectors and anti-competitive behaviour.
Despite the unique partnership with the USA, Europe needs to reflect on its place in an unstable world. Especially if the US Administration moves towards protectionism, the EU will need to build and deepen relationships with other partners.
The Belt and Road initiative, recently embarked on by China, aims to improve cross-border infrastructure in order to reduce transportation costs across a massive geographical area between China and Europe.
Alicia García-Herrero finds it unlikely that risk in the Chinese banking sector will abate any time soon. And the worries are strongest for smaller institutions. However, the chances of a total crisis are low, and proactive decisions now could pay dividends in the medium term.
With US inward turn, China should get a bigger role to bolster system
Will the UK’s engagement in European supply chains be at risk once the UK exits the EU?
The UK government has high hopes that new trade deals with non-EU states will offer an economic boost after Brexit. But how likely is this to materialise? The authors show that a FTA with China is unlikely to offer much to the UK's prominent services sector. Strong links with the EU will remain vital.
It is too early to say what the Trump administration’s trade policy will look like – but a total cut-off from Asian partners is unlikely. It would harm the US economy, and offer China even more scope to cement its position in Asia. Nevertheless, with TPP and TTIP both looking unlikely, the EU should move fast to build relationships with China and ASEAN countries.
How can trade relations between the EU and China be strengthened? How can the current situation be improved, and what are the potential challenges to do that?
The current fairly peripheral role of China in the global financial regulatory system is increasingly problematic. The system needs a guiding vision in which China becomes much more central – a ‘Chinese dream.’ This paper outlines three clusters of initiatives to achieve a global financial regulatory system in which China holds a major position.