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Simone Tagliapietra

Global decarbonisation: a wake-up call for the Middle East and North Africa

Many countries in the MENA region are heavily dependent on oil and gas for exports and taxes. But global decarbonisation could undermine revenues, even though MENA exports are globally competitive. This threatens the MENA region's social contract, so economic diversification needs to start now.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate Date: April 11, 2017
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Working Paper

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The political economy of Middle East and North Africa oil exporters in times of global decarbonisation

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) oil exporting countries are still not adequately equipped to prosper in a decarbonising world. Decarbonisation should therefore represent an incentive for MENA oil exporters to pursue structural processes of transition from rentier to production states.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate Date: April 11, 2017
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Simone Tagliapietra

OPEC's revival or swan song? First evidence from financial markets

On Wednesday, 30 November 2016, OPEC reached a milestone agreement to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day in a long-awaited attempt to end the savage two-year downturn in prices that has shredded the budgets of its members. The deal will come into effect in January 2017 and it will mark a U-turn from the pump-at-will policy adopted by the group in November 2014.

By: Enrico Nano and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate Date: December 2, 2016
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Marek Dabrowski

Iran: from isolation to economic cooperation

With some sanctions temporarily lifted, now is the chance for Iran to reintegrate into the global economy and political system. But comprehensive economic and political reforms are needed.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 15, 2016
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Georg Zachmann

Is the oil price-GDP link broken?

Oil prices fell to a 12-year low at the beginning of 2016. We find that the drop in the past two years was primarily driven by expectations. In fact, changes in oil prices since 2008 are increasingly explained by expectations. In the past, expectation-driven oil prices drops were good news for the EU economy. However, the declining importance of actual changes in demand and supply for oil prices raises doubts about whether we can still expect a positive impact on EU GDP.

By: Domenico Favoino and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: March 31, 2016
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Francesco Papadia
Guntram B. Wolff

Central banks: from omnipotence to impotence?

Like the price of financial assets, the market assessment of the capacity of central banks to achieve their price stability objective fluctuates between omnipotence and impotence. We do not agree with this binary view of the world and we examine in this post the case of the European Central Bank (ECB). We argue that the ECB still has some instruments left. It should consider moving beyond increasing sovereign debt purchases, which would be ineffective and pose risks. More important is to step up work on structural and fiscal policies.

By: Francesco Papadia and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 2, 2016
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Simone Tagliapietra

Iran faces a bumpy road back to global energy markets

Iran’s energy sector is vital for the country’s economy. Now that sanctions have been lifted, the government must reform the oil sector to encourage investment from international oil companies.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate Date: February 9, 2016
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Jérémie Cohen-Setton

Oil and stock prices

What’s at stake: The recent positive link between oil and stock prices has been puzzling for most observers. While a decrease in the price of oil was traditionally seen as a net positive for oil importing countries such as the United States, the concurrent declines in the price of oil and the US stock market suggest that the relationship may be different in the current environment.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 25, 2016
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Zsolt Darvas
Pia Hüttl

Oil prices and inflation expectations

The price of crude oil has fallen even further in recent weeks, as have financial market measures of inflation expectations in the euro area, the US and the UK. We show that low oil prices drag down inflation expectations up to 5-6 years ahead, which is puzzlingly long and suggests that financial market based inflation expectations should be assessed cautiously.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Pia Hüttl Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 21, 2016
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Georg Zachmann

The oil-price slump: crisis symptom or fuel for growth?

The low oil price will benefit oil importing countries, but is also a symptom of slowing global growth. Georg Zachmann explores the reasons for the oil slump and its effects on the global economy.

By: Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate Date: January 11, 2016
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Marek Dabrowski

The impact of the oil-price shock on net oil exporters

In the second half of 2014 and early 2015, international oil prices approximately halved. What have been the consequences of this sharp decline on net oil exporters, and what have been their policy responses?

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Energy & Climate, Global Economics & Governance Date: November 24, 2015
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Past Event

Past Event

The impact of the oil price on the EU economy

This lunchtime event explored the potential impact of oil price changes on the EU economy.

Topic: Energy & Climate Date: June 2, 2015
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