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Upcoming Event

Jan
24
12:30

The future of EU trade policy

We are happy to welcome the European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström to Bruegel on 24 January to talk about the future of the EU's trade policy.

Speakers: Cecilia Malmström and André Sapir Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
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Blog Post

Guntram B. Wolff

Manufacturing in the US: Will Trump’s strategy repatriate highly-paid jobs?

Trump has set out a plan to repatriate highly-paid manufacturing jobs to the US. But the idea that manufacturing jobs are better paid than service roles is a myth. Moreover, labour markets are slow to shift between sectors. An aggressive trade policy may create some jobs in manufacturing but will not be a benefit to US citizens in general.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: January 6, 2017
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Blog Post

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The impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland: a first look

Following the proposal from the Scottish Government that Scotland remain in the Single Market, the differing “Brexpectations” of the UK’s four constituent countries are once again back in the news. Scotland is getting a lot of attention in the Brexit debate, but Northern Ireland is an equally interesting case.

By: Filippo Biondi and Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 22, 2016
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Blog Post

Alicia García-Herrero
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UK-China agreement on trade in services is no substitute for a UK-EU deal

The UK government has high hopes that new trade deals with non-EU states will offer an economic boost after Brexit. But how likely is this to materialise? The authors show that a FTA with China is unlikely to offer much to the UK's prominent services sector. Strong links with the EU will remain vital.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 6, 2016
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Blog Post

Alicia García-Herrero
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Trump could give new impetus to EU-China relations

It is too early to say what the Trump administration’s trade policy will look like – but a total cut-off from Asian partners is unlikely. It would harm the US economy, and offer China even more scope to cement its position in Asia. Nevertheless, with TPP and TTIP both looking unlikely, the EU should move fast to build relationships with China and ASEAN countries.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: November 15, 2016
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Blog Post

Silvia Merler

The Wallonian Resistance

What's at stake: this week has been filled with news that the he small Belgian region of Wallonia intended to veto CETA (the Canada-EU trade agreement). Eventually, Wallonia conceded defeat and agreed to let the agreement go on. But meanwhile, it spurred a debate on trade agreements and their sovereignty implications, which we summarise here.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: October 31, 2016
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Blog Post

Uuriintuya Batsaikhan

Maple syrup on Belgian waffles: EU-Canada trade

Wallonia recently voted against the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which aims to eliminate 98% of tariffs between Canada and EU. While the ratification is currently on hold, we take a look at the figures for EU-Canada trade.

By: Uuriintuya Batsaikhan Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 20, 2016
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Policy Contribution

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What consequences would a post-Brexit China-UK trade deal have for the EU?

A China-UK free trade agreement has been extensively discussed since the UK’s vote for Brexit. Many supporters of Brexit argue that the UK’s regained flexibility to strike trade deals with other partners, and in particular with China given its economic size, will be a key advantage. This analysis indicates that a China-UK FTA will be neither as easy nor as clearly advantageous as portrayed by Brexit supporters.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 7, 2016
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Opinion

Guntram B. Wolff

Is Europe drifting towards a hard Brexit?

Theresa May's recently announced that she will trigger Article 50 no later than March 2017. Guntram Wolff debriefs May's speech and the implications for the future of EU-UK relations.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 6, 2016
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Blog Post

Alicia García-Herrero
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What does China’s ‘belt and road initiative’ mean for EU trade?

Much has been written about the Belt and Road initiative since Xi Jinping made it Beijing’s flagship initiative in September 2013. There are many interpretations of the initiative’s ultimate objectives, but one objective is clear. The belt and road scheme will bring huge improvements in regional and international connectivity through infrastructure upgrades and trade facilitation across a massive geographic area.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 20, 2016
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Working Paper

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China’s Belt and Road initiative: can Europe expect trade gains?

The Belt and Road aims to ease bottlenecks for cross-border trade in Asia, Europe and Africa. This paper measures empirically whether the reduction in transportation costs will have a positive impact on trade flows for Belt and Road countries and for EU countries. The authors also explore the possibility that the Belt and Road may eventually go beyond its current objectives towards the creation of a free trade area.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 5, 2016
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Blog Post

André Sapir

Should the UK pull out of the EU customs union?

The UK Government appears divided on whether the United Kingdom should seek to remain within the European Union’s customs union after Brexit. The United Kingdom is likely to want to leave the customs union, even it remains in the EU’s single market. But the UK should try and keep to the EU’s commitments at the WTO, at least at the start, in order to minimise the trade disruption that Brexit entails.

By: André Sapir Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: August 1, 2016
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