The modernisation of the Ukrainian economy and state continues to develop at an unsatisfactory pace due to a lack of pro-reform political consensus. The two upcoming election campaigns in 2019 (presidential and parliamentary) make the reform process even slower and additionally put its effectiveness and sustainability under risk. The international community has a limited toolkit to overcome this stalemate.
Ukraine is running out of time to provide western gas consumers with the necessary trust to abandon the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project.
Ukraine’s late and incomplete economic reform created a class of super-wealthy oligarchs who now stand in the way of further liberalisation. The oligarchs’ oversized influence only deepens public distrust in a structurally weak political system. Nevertheless, Ukraine is making some attempts to uproot corruption and the next steps are clear.
This Policy Contribution analyses the Ukrainian economic, institutional and political reforms of 2014-17 in terms of their sustainability and completeness, and evaluates what remains to be done. Compared to previous attempts, the current reform round has proved more successful and some politically difficult decisions have been taken (for example, the elimination of gas subsidies), but it remains incomplete in many important areas
This paper offers an updated and comprehensive analysis of the currency crises in Russia and the former Soviet Union economies.
Ukraine’s closer ties with the EU have been controversial. The Association Agreement is now facing a referendum in the Netherlands. But what exactly is in the agreement, and what could it mean in practice?
Reform of Ukraine’s gas sector is under threat. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development should step in.
Ukraine is perhaps the most convincing example of a victim of slow reform. Since independence in 1991, it has missed several political windows of opportunity to comprehensively reform its economy and state institutions. Had these reforms been put in place, today Ukraine would be a different country.
In this Policy Contribution Marek Dabrowski argues that Ukraine must accelerate and better manage its reform process so as to overcome fundamental weaknesses in its economy and finances.
Energy & Climate
The October 2014 agreement on gas supplies between Russia, Ukraine and the EU did not resolve the Ukraine-Russia conflict over gas. This policy contribution proposes the EU to actively engage in a redefinition of its gas relations with both Russia and Ukraine.
Sanctions are not about showing the other how much damage can be inflicted on the sanctioned party, but about demonstrating how much pain can be tolerated by the sanctioner. If the EU wants to go all-out over Crimea, stopping gas imports from Russia would be a powerful signal with limited long-term consequences